证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 26 日 关注 2026 年油轮、散货景气上行 航运行业 2026 年策略报告 周期/交通运输 本篇报告回顾了25年航运子板块发展态势，并对各子行业基本面变化进行展望。 26 年油轮、散货行业中大型船市场供需格局相对较好，旺季或有较大弹性。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3200.5 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2996.3 | 3.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 1.8 7.7 8.0 相对表现 -1.6 -9.6 -8.5 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《航空行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 —国庆中秋长航线需求旺盛，国际线 复苏强劲》2025-12-05 2、《快递行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 —10 月业务量增速放缓，单票价格同 比持 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The shipping industry encompasses various segments including oil tankers, dry bulk, container shipping, LNG, and ro-ro vessels. The oil shipping segment experienced significant growth in Q4 2025, while LNG benefited from increased capacity. The ro-ro fleet saw a decline due to peak deliveries but an increase in volume, and the cruise business provided substantial earnings flexibility, expected to be more pronounced in Q1 2026 [2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil Shipping Price Surge**: Since August, oil shipping prices have surged due to increased cargo from Brazil and West Africa, influenced by US-India trade negotiations. Russian export volumes rose, but Western sanctions reduced transport efficiency. OPEC's production increase has been implemented, and India's large-scale purchases of non-Russian oil have shifted the market dynamics [2][6]. - **OPEC's Production Strategy**: OPEC's decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 does not hinder the growth logic of global compliant oil demand. Even with the delivery of approximately 30 VLCCs in the second half of next year, the market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance due to aging vessels and sanctions affecting transport efficiency [2][7]. - **Geopolitical Impacts**: The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war could significantly alter oil supply routes. A Russian victory may lead to a return of American oil to Asia, increasing VLCC long-haul demand. Conversely, a Western victory could internalize Russian oil supply, affecting logistics. Additionally, potential conflict between the US and Venezuela could either diminish or enhance Venezuelan oil production, impacting global oil prices [2][9]. - **Dry Bulk Market Dynamics**: The West Simandou iron ore project has limited impact on the VLOC market due to long-term contracts. The transportation of bauxite to the Far East is expected to drive growth in the dry bulk sector [2][10]. Current dry bulk market conditions indicate that prices are not expected to rise significantly in the next two years, as the market has not reached a tight supply-demand balance [2][11]. Additional Important Information - **Fleet Age and Newbuilding Plans**: The company has a detailed newbuilding plan that includes cruise ships, bulk carriers, ro-ro vessels, and LNG carriers, with total capital expenditure nearing 40 billion RMB. The company does not plan large-scale fleet updates but may consider updating some vessels [2][12]. - **Dual-Fuel Vessels**: The company is set to deliver the world's first methanol dual-fuel VLCC by the end of this month, indicating a shift towards more environmentally friendly shipping solutions [2][13]. - **Chartering and Market Conditions**: Currently, the proportion of time-chartered vessels in the cruise and dry bulk segments is low, with most operating in the spot market. The one-year time charter rates have surpassed $60,000, nearing a new high for 2025 [2][14][15]. - **Dividend and Buyback Plans**: The company plans to distribute dividends based on 40% of net profit twice a year. The buyback strategy will be evaluated based on market conditions and stock performance in 2026 [2][16].

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——秒光、售罄！银行大额存单成稀缺资源，2%以上产品很难抢，有的门槛高 达1000万元！专家：存款利率或长期下行 （记者 曾健辉） 2024年1至12月份，招商轮船的营业收入构成为：油轮运输占比35.68%，散货船运输占比30.78%，集装 箱运输占比21.06%，滚装船运输占比7.12%，其他占比5.36%。 截至发稿，招商轮船市值为672亿元。 每经AI快讯，招商轮船（SH 601872，收盘价：8.32元）12月5日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第二十五 次董事会会议于2025年12月5日以书面会议方式召开。会议审议了《关于公司2026年度日常关联交易预 计情况的议案》等文件。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company announced a stock reduction plan by senior executives, which involves a total of up to 475,600 shares being sold through block trading, representing a maximum of 0.005890% of the company's total share capital [1] Group 1: Stock Reduction Plan - The company's vice presidents Xu Hui and Hu Bin, along with the board secretary Kong Kang, plan to reduce their holdings by a total of no more than 475,600 shares [1] - Each executive's planned reduction will not exceed 25% of their total personal holdings [1] - By the end of the reduction period on November 19, 2025, the three executives had collectively reduced approximately 430,000 shares, accounting for 0.005313% of the company's total shares [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, the company's revenue composition is as follows: - Oil tanker transportation: 35.68% - Bulk cargo transportation: 30.78% - Container transportation: 21.06% - Roll-on/roll-off transportation: 7.12% - Others: 5.36% [1] Group 3: Market Capitalization - As of the report, the company's market capitalization stands at 72.4 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with a notable acceleration in profits in Q4, driven by strong oil and dry bulk shipping markets [7][8] - The oil tanker segment contributed a profit of 597 million yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 55.06%, while the dry bulk segment saw a profit of 292 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.08% [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a strong performance in Q4, with oil tanker rates exceeding 80,000 USD/day, potentially contributing over 2 billion yuan in profits [4][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 19.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%, and a net profit of 3.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.06% [7] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 28.61 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 6.50 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.3% [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.81 yuan in 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 14.5% [6][10] Segment Performance - The oil tanker segment is expected to see continued strength, with the average TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for VLCCs projected to be around 40,000 USD/day, outperforming market averages [4][8] - The dry bulk segment is anticipated to improve as it enters the peak season, with Capesize rates expected to average around 26,000 USD/day [5][8] - The LNG segment contributed a net profit of 239 million yuan in Q3, with expectations for rapid growth in the LNG fleet [5][8]

Core Insights - The event "2025 Shanghai Listed Companies Collective Reception Day and Mid-Year Performance Briefing" was successfully held on September 19 [1] - The company responded to investor inquiries regarding the expansion of its fleet, indicating that its oil tanker, dry bulk, and container segments significantly outperformed the market in the first half of the year [1] - The oil tanker and container segments were the primary contributors to the company's profits [1] - For the second half of the year, the company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on the market and is actively expanding its fleet and operational scale in the oil tanker and dry bulk markets [1] - New vessels, including LNG carriers and car roll-on/roll-off ships, are being delivered gradually [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 12.585 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.125 billion, down 14.91% year-on-year. However, in Q2 2025, the net profit increased by 12.25% year-on-year [4][6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the container shipping segment, which saw a net profit increase of 161.50% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][6] Summary by Sections Oil Tanker Transportation - The company maintains the world's largest VLCC fleet, consisting of 52 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 16.11 million [4] - In H1 2025, the oil tanker segment generated revenue of 4.443 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.46%, with a net profit of 1.293 billion, down 22.77% [4] Dry Bulk Transportation - The company also holds the world's largest VLOC fleet, comprising 93 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 18.5595 million [4] - In H1 2025, the dry bulk segment reported revenue of 3.701 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.50%, and a net profit of 422 million, down 47.27% [4] Container Shipping - The container fleet includes 19 vessels with a total capacity of 42.4 thousand TEU [4] - In H1 2025, the container shipping segment achieved revenue of 3.020 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.93%, and a net profit of 628 million, reflecting a significant increase of 161.50% [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 25.592 billion, 26.874 billion, and 27.703 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.80%, 5.01%, and 3.08% [6] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 5.243 billion, 6.044 billion, and 6.356 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 2.66%, 15.26%, and 5.17% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company has received approval for a private placement, which is expected to strengthen future freight rates [6] - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to lower tanker earnings, but the LNG segment has shown growth [8] - The outlook for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates is positive due to OPEC+ production increases, which may lead to a stronger oil transportation market [8] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.642 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.55% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.869 billion yuan, down 29.16% year-on-year [8] - The average daily earnings for the TD3C route were $40,370, down approximately 2% year-on-year, while the TC1 route saw a significant decline of about 47% [8] - The LNG segment contributed 424 million yuan to net profit, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.034 billion yuan, 6.148 billion yuan, and 6.681 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.72%, 22.12%, and 8.68% respectively [8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 10.08, 8.26, and 7.60 respectively [8]

Core Insights - The company, China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船), reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q2 [2][3]. Revenue Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, while Q2 2025 revenue was 6.989 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.13% [2]. - The revenue from oil tanker transportation in H1 2025 was 4.443 billion yuan, down 10.46% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue at 2.306 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.28% [4][5]. - The dry bulk shipping segment generated 3.701 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 6.50%, with Q2 revenue at 2.021 billion yuan, down 2.00% [7][8]. - The container shipping segment saw a revenue increase to 3.020 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 10.93%, with Q2 revenue at 1.882 billion yuan, an increase of 11.73% [9]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 2.125 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.91%, while Q2 net profit was 1.259 billion yuan, an increase of 12.25% [3]. - The non-recurring net profit for H1 2025 was 1.906 billion yuan, down 22.03%, with Q2 showing a decline of 3.04% to 1.053 billion yuan [3]. - The oil tanker segment's net profit for H1 2025 was 1.293 billion yuan, down 22.77%, while Q2 net profit was 806 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.22% [4][5]. - The dry bulk segment's net profit for H1 2025 was 422 million yuan, down 47.27%, with Q2 net profit at 263 million yuan, a decrease of 40.66% [7][8]. - The container segment's net profit for H1 2025 was 628 million yuan, a significant increase of 161.50%, with Q2 net profit at 293 million yuan, up 115.15% [9]. Fleet Overview - As of mid-2025, the company maintained the world's largest VLCC fleet with 52 vessels (16.11 million deadweight tons) and 7 Aframax vessels (770,000 deadweight tons) [4]. - The dry bulk fleet also remained the largest globally, comprising 93 vessels (18.56 million deadweight tons), including 34 VLOCs (13.13 million deadweight tons) [6]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 25.592 billion yuan, 26.874 billion yuan, and 27.703 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.80%, 5.01%, and 3.08% respectively [9]. - Expected net profits for the same period are projected at 5.243 billion yuan, 6.044 billion yuan, and 6.356 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.66%, 15.26%, and 5.17% respectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in container shipping profits, indicating resilience in performance despite challenges in other segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.585 billion yuan, down 4.91% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.125 billion yuan, down 14.91% year-on-year [1]. - By segment, net profit from tanker transportation was 1.293 billion yuan, down 22.81%; dry bulk transportation was 422 million yuan, down 47.25%; container transportation was 628 million yuan, up 161.67%; roll-on/roll-off transportation was 106 million yuan, down 37.65%; and LNG transportation was 320 million yuan, unchanged [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.259 billion yuan, up 12.25% year-on-year and up 45.49% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Market Analysis - The oil and bulk shipping markets are experiencing weakness, while container shipping profits have surged, highlighting the company's operational resilience [2]. - For tankers, the TCE levels for the VLCC fleet decreased year-on-year due to a high base in 2024, but remained significantly above market indices [2]. - The dry bulk market is under pressure due to aging fleets and stricter environmental regulations, with the BDI average at 1290 points, down 29.74% year-on-year [2]. - The company expanded its container shipping capacity and opened new routes in Asia and Latin America, leading to a significant increase in container shipping net profit [2]. Future Outlook - The oil shipping market may benefit from OPEC+ production increases, which could enhance shipping volumes and support freight rates [3]. - The dry bulk market is expected to recover in H2 2025 due to domestic demand and new mining projects in Guinea, which may boost shipping demand [3]. - The container shipping market could see structural growth opportunities due to favorable tariff policies in Southeast Asia and South America [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 5.33 billion yuan, 7.61 billion yuan, and 8.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.35%, 42.77%, and 5.58% [3].