1月8日晚间，招商局能源运输股份有限公司发布2025年度业绩预增公告。 根据公告，招商轮船预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币60亿元至66亿元，与上年同期相比预 计增加8.93亿元至14.93亿元，增幅17%-29%。2025 年四季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润与上年同期相比，预 计增加9.62亿元至15.62亿元，增幅55%-90%。 预计招商轮船2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为50.05亿元至56.05亿元，与上年同 期相比，预计增加-1000万元至5.9亿元，同比增加-0.2%-12%。2025年四季度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润与上年同期相比，预计增加3.77亿元至9.77亿元，增幅22%-57%。 回顾2024年，招商轮船利润总额59.52亿元，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润51.07亿元，归属于上市公司股东的 扣除非经常性损益的净利润50.15亿元，每股收益为0.63元。 招商轮船表示，2025年度业绩预计出现增长的主要原因包括：油船船队抓住市场复苏机遇，第四季度经营利润同比 预计增加200-230%；受益于多种因素，报告 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 26 日 关注 2026 年油轮、散货景气上行 航运行业 2026 年策略报告 周期/交通运输 本篇报告回顾了25年航运子板块发展态势，并对各子行业基本面变化进行展望。 26 年油轮、散货行业中大型船市场供需格局相对较好，旺季或有较大弹性。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3200.5 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2996.3 | 3.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 1.8 7.7 8.0 相对表现 -1.6 -9.6 -8.5 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《航空行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 —国庆中秋长航线需求旺盛，国际线 复苏强劲》2025-12-05 2、《快递行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 —10 月业务量增速放缓，单票价格同 比持 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The shipping industry encompasses various segments including oil tankers, dry bulk, container shipping, LNG, and ro-ro vessels. The oil shipping segment experienced significant growth in Q4 2025, while LNG benefited from increased capacity. The ro-ro fleet saw a decline due to peak deliveries but an increase in volume, and the cruise business provided substantial earnings flexibility, expected to be more pronounced in Q1 2026 [2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil Shipping Price Surge**: Since August, oil shipping prices have surged due to increased cargo from Brazil and West Africa, influenced by US-India trade negotiations. Russian export volumes rose, but Western sanctions reduced transport efficiency. OPEC's production increase has been implemented, and India's large-scale purchases of non-Russian oil have shifted the market dynamics [2][6]. - **OPEC's Production Strategy**: OPEC's decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 does not hinder the growth logic of global compliant oil demand. Even with the delivery of approximately 30 VLCCs in the second half of next year, the market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance due to aging vessels and sanctions affecting transport efficiency [2][7]. - **Geopolitical Impacts**: The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war could significantly alter oil supply routes. A Russian victory may lead to a return of American oil to Asia, increasing VLCC long-haul demand. Conversely, a Western victory could internalize Russian oil supply, affecting logistics. Additionally, potential conflict between the US and Venezuela could either diminish or enhance Venezuelan oil production, impacting global oil prices [2][9]. - **Dry Bulk Market Dynamics**: The West Simandou iron ore project has limited impact on the VLOC market due to long-term contracts. The transportation of bauxite to the Far East is expected to drive growth in the dry bulk sector [2][10]. Current dry bulk market conditions indicate that prices are not expected to rise significantly in the next two years, as the market has not reached a tight supply-demand balance [2][11]. Additional Important Information - **Fleet Age and Newbuilding Plans**: The company has a detailed newbuilding plan that includes cruise ships, bulk carriers, ro-ro vessels, and LNG carriers, with total capital expenditure nearing 40 billion RMB. The company does not plan large-scale fleet updates but may consider updating some vessels [2][12]. - **Dual-Fuel Vessels**: The company is set to deliver the world's first methanol dual-fuel VLCC by the end of this month, indicating a shift towards more environmentally friendly shipping solutions [2][13]. - **Chartering and Market Conditions**: Currently, the proportion of time-chartered vessels in the cruise and dry bulk segments is low, with most operating in the spot market. The one-year time charter rates have surpassed $60,000, nearing a new high for 2025 [2][14][15]. - **Dividend and Buyback Plans**: The company plans to distribute dividends based on 40% of net profit twice a year. The buyback strategy will be evaluated based on market conditions and stock performance in 2026 [2][16].

Core Viewpoint - The dry bulk shipping market is entering a new cycle driven by supply constraints, demand growth, and geopolitical factors, with structural opportunities emerging in the industry [4][7][8]. Supply Side - The dry bulk fleet is experiencing significant supply tightness, with the order book for 2025 representing only 11% of total capacity, the lowest in 25 years [9]. - The scrapping of old ships is intensifying, with the expected scrapping volume increasing from 4.7 million deadweight tons in 2024 to 6.6 million in 2025, and projected to reach 9.7 million in 2026 [9]. - New ship orders have plummeted by 89.5%, leading to a low growth rate in overall industry capacity [9]. Demand Side - The West African Simandou iron ore project is a key demand driver, with potential production of 120 million tons of iron ore, significantly increasing transportation distances and demand for dry bulk shipping [10]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to boost commodity trade, lowering costs for companies to stockpile and expand, which in turn is likely to increase dry bulk shipping demand [10]. - Geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade routes, indirectly increasing shipping demand by lengthening transport distances for certain commodities [11]. Shipping Cycle Forecast - Short-term (H1 2026): The market will be in a "game period" with Cape-sized vessels benefiting the most from the new demand, while traditional cargo types may struggle [13]. - Mid-term (H2 2026 - 2027): The market is expected to enter a main upward wave as the Simandou project ramps up production and interest rate cuts continue to support demand [14]. - Long-term (Post-2028): The market will shift towards a "cycle dividend + transformation premium" phase, with a focus on green transformation and diversified cargo types [15]. Investment Opportunities - Cape-sized vessel operators are positioned to benefit directly from the increased shipments from the Simandou project, making them core targets during the upward cycle [18]. - Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation are significant players in the dry bulk market, with large fleets that can capitalize on rising freight rates [19]. - Companies involved in green ship conversion and operation are expected to gain valuation premiums due to stricter environmental policies [20]. Market Dynamics - The current dry bulk cycle differs from previous cycles (2008 and 2016) due to structural demand increases and institutional supply constraints, leading to a more differentiated and sustainable market [21]. - To capitalize on this opportunity, a focus on specific segments and precise understanding of industry logic and vessel supply-demand dynamics is essential [22].

太平洋航运(02343)跌超8%，截至发稿，跌7.2%，报2.45港元，成交额4116.37万港元。 消息面上，12月9日，波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)报2557点，创11月27日以来新低水平，环比跌5.09%， 创2025年10月14日以来最大跌幅，且为连续第4天下跌。各细分船型的运输费率出现了全面疲软的态 势，市场整体运输需求与运价支撑力显著不足。 值得注意的是，12月3日，西芒杜项目首船20万吨铁矿石成功发运。国盛证券（002670）发布研报称， 干散货，短期运价尤其是大船运价延续上涨，2026年重点关注西芒杜铁矿石投产带来的运距拉长逻辑以 及俄乌停战进展。 ...

值得注意的是，12月3日，西芒杜项目首船20万吨铁矿石成功发运。国盛证券发布研报称，干散货，短 期运价尤其是大船运价延续上涨，2026年重点关注西芒杜铁矿石投产带来的运距拉长逻辑以及俄乌停战 进展。 消息面上，12月9日，波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)报2557点，创11月27日以来新低水平，环比跌5.09%， 创2025年10月14日以来最大跌幅，且为连续第4天下跌。各细分船型的运输费率出现了全面疲软的态 势，市场整体运输需求与运价支撑力显著不足。 智通财经APP获悉，太平洋航运(02343)跌超8%，截至发稿，跌7.2%，报2.45港元，成交额4116.37万港 元。 ...

经济导报记者 王伟 在启动IPO辅导后，省属国企山东省港口集团有限公司（下称"山东港口集团"）旗下山东远洋海运集团股份有限公司（下称"山东远洋海 运集团"）又有新动作。 股权结构显示，山东省港口集团作为大股东，持有山东远洋海运集团29.4715%的股份，山东港口日照港集团有限公司、山东港口威海港 有限公司、山东港口烟台港集团有限公司、山东港口青岛港集团有限公司、上海中谷物流股份有限公司、山东港口渤海湾港集团有限公 司分别持股26.2446%、21.9508%、9.8641%、6.0911%、4.4926%、1.8854%。 经济导报记者注意到，在成立海南公司之前，山东远洋海运集团已成立山东远洋海运集团威海有限公司、山东远洋海运集团日照有限公 司、山东远洋海运集团渤海湾有限公司等。 值得注意的是，今年9月23日，山东远洋海运集团在青岛证监局办理辅导备案登记，拟首次公开发行股票并上市。 编辑 | 吴淑娟 版权 | 山东财经报道 企查查信息显示，近日，由其全资持股的山东远洋海运集团（海南）有限公司（下称"海南公司"）成立，法定代表人为汪涛，注册资本 1000万元人民币，经营范围包括水路普通货物运输、国内船舶管理业务 ...

手机号 15769519125 2025 年 中国港口航运行业市 场研究报告 主编：雷静兰 编辑：柯文慧 此外，港口管理体制逐步改革，提升了市场竞争力和服务质量。进入 21 世纪， 全球经济一体化趋势明显，国际航运规则和标准逐渐完善，中国港口航运行业 加快了现代化步伐。集装箱运输作为全球贸易的主要方式，成为中国港口发展 的核心驱动力。 图表：中国港口行业发展历程 商业合作： collaboration@shuoyuanconsulting.com 1 / 22 1 行业概述 1.1 中国港口航运行业发展背景 1.1.1 行业起源与发展历程 中国港口航运行业的起源可以追溯到古代的海上丝绸之路。早在汉代，中国就 通过沿海港口与东南亚、南亚甚至更远地区开展海上贸易，促进了商品、文化 和技术的交流。进入近现代，尤其是 19 世纪末至 20 世纪初，随着工业革命 和现代交通运输技术的发展，中国的港口航运业逐渐步入现代化。 20 世纪 80 年代，随着中国改革开放政策的实施，中国港口航运行业迎来了 重要的发展机遇。政策放宽引入市场机制，吸引外资进入港口建设和运营，极 大地促进了港口基础设施的现代化升级。 资料来源：前瞻产 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for improvement in the dry bulk shipping market, particularly for Capesize vessels, with freight rates expected to rise further based on the second half of 2025 [3][10] - The West Simandou iron ore project is highlighted as a key catalyst, expected to disrupt the current iron ore supply dominance of Australia and Brazil, with a projected increase in global iron ore demand by approximately 6.8% post full production [3][10] Shipping Industry Overview - The shipping industry is projected to experience a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with limited supply growth and potential demand increases due to various factors, including the West Simandou project and macroeconomic conditions [8][12] - The total market capitalization of the shipping sector is reported at 579.568 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 458.746 billion yuan [4] Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is expected to benefit from a global oil production increase, sanctions improving demand structure, and supply constraints, leading to a sustained upward trend in market conditions [6][9] - VLCC freight rates have shown significant strength, with the TD3C route recording a rate of $126,000 per day on November 13, 2025, and an average rate of $104,000 per day for November [6][15] Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping market is recovering, with the BDI index averaging 1997 points, indicating a near five-year high, driven by improved demand for iron ore and coal [6][44] - Supply growth for dry bulk vessels is limited, with Capesize orders at only 9.32%, leading to projected capacity growth rates of 1.4%, 2.2%, and 2.6% for 2025-2027 [10][49] Container Shipping - The container shipping market in Asia remains tight, with a significant portion of new orders focused on ultra-large container ships, while smaller vessels face aging issues [11][68] - Despite a year-on-year decline in freight rates, the Asian container shipping market is expected to maintain demand above industry growth levels due to regional economic growth [11][68] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy for oil shipping, and Haitong Development and China Merchants Industry for dry bulk shipping, citing favorable supply-demand dynamics [12][68] - For container shipping, it suggests focusing on Jinjiang Shipping and Zhonggu Logistics, while keeping an eye on Hapag-Lloyd International [12][68]

Overview - The shipping and port industry is experiencing mixed trends in freight rates and cargo throughput, with some segments showing growth while others face declines [2][4][6][7]. Trade and Cargo Throughput - From January to August 2025, the total import and export volume in China reached 29.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports growing by 6.9% to 17.61 trillion yuan and imports declining by 1.2% to 11.96 trillion yuan [2]. - Coastal major ports handled a total cargo throughput of 7.688 billion tons, up 3.1% year-on-year, with foreign trade cargo throughput increasing by 2.5% to 3.325 billion tons [2]. Container Shipping - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) dropped to 1087.41 points, down 37.58% year-on-year, with significant declines in freight rates for routes to the US East Coast, US West Coast, and Europe [4]. - Container throughput at coastal major ports reached 20.646 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, with Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen showing growth rates of 7.4%, 5.3%, 9.6%, and 7.8% respectively [5]. Liquid Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) stood at 1078 points on October 8, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.27% but a decline of 2.36% from the previous week [6]. - Crude oil imports from January to August 2025 totaled 376 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with notable declines in imports from the Middle East and Russia [6]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached 1963 points on October 8, 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.12% despite a slight decline from the previous week [7]. - Iron ore throughput at major ports was 921 million tons from January to August 2025, up 2.57% year-on-year, while coal throughput saw a slight decline of 0.42% to 454 million tons [7].