信达证券近日发布航运港口2025年9月专题：2025年10月8日，波罗的海原油航运运费指 数BDTI收于1078点，同比增长5.27%，环比2025年10月1日下滑2.36%，2025年10月1日， TD3C、TD25、TD22航线TCE分别收于7.29、3.75、6.25万美元/日，同比增速分别为 115.05%、106.35%、67.01%，环比2025年9月24日增速分别为-20.62%、11.3%、-14.66%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期内容提要: 一、综述：全国进出口总额及货物吞吐量情况 油运运价：2025年10月8日，波罗的海原油航运运费指数BDTI收于1078点，同比增长 5.27%，环比2025年10月1日下滑2.36%，2025年10月1日，TD3C、TD25、TD22航线TCE分 别收于7.29、3.75、6.25万美元/日，同比增速分别为115.05%、106.35%、67.01%，环比2025 年9月24日增速分别为-20.62%、11.3%、-14.66%。 货物吞吐量：2025年1～8月，全国沿海主要港口货物吞吐量实现76.88亿吨，同比增长 3.1%，全国沿海主要港口外贸货物 ...

公开资料显示，山东远洋成立于2020年3月27日，注册资本4.45亿元，位于青岛市市北区，是山东省港 口集团有限公司（下称"山东省港口集团"）业务板块重组整合的产物，主要从事集装箱运输及代理、油 品加注及运输、干散货运输、客箱班轮运输等业务。该公司控股股东为山东省港口集团，持股 29.47%。 文 | 经济导报 杨佳琪 据证监会网站披露，山东远洋海运集团股份有限公司（下称"山东远洋"）于9月24日在青岛证监局进行 上市辅导备案登记，拟首次公开发行股票并上市，辅导券商为申万宏源证券承销保荐有限责任公司（下 称"申万宏源证券"）。 | | | | | 全国一体化在线政务服务平台 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 中国证券监督管理委员会网上办事服务平台(试运行) | | | | | | | | 公开发行辅导公示 | | 辅导对象 | 辅导机构 | 备案时间 辅导状态 | 测出机构 | 报告类型 | 报告标题 | | - | 北京 | | 天津 | 安徽大昌科技股份有限公司 | 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Ocean Shipping Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Shandong Ocean") is preparing for an IPO with the support of Shenwan Hongyuan, aiming to optimize resource allocation through capital markets [1][2]. Company Overview - Established in March 2020 with a registered capital of 445 million yuan, Shandong Ocean is formed from the restructuring of Shandong Port Group's business segments [1]. - The company engages in various shipping services, including container transportation, oil product transportation, and passenger liner services [1]. Business Performance - Since its inception, Shandong Ocean has shown steady growth in revenue and profit, with a fleet of over 60 vessels and a total capacity exceeding 1.1 million deadweight tons [1]. - The company operates 40 container shipping routes, with continuous growth in cargo volume across its business lines [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a "daily service" brand for shipping between China and South Korea, enhancing trade and personnel exchanges [2]. - Shandong Ocean offers customized logistics solutions through its various service lines, including the Peninsula Express and oil transportation services [2]. Shareholding Structure - Shandong Port Group holds a 29.47% stake in Shandong Ocean, making it the controlling shareholder [2]. Parent Company Overview - Shandong Port Group is a significant state-owned enterprise with a comprehensive port network, including major ports and listed companies [3]. - The group has developed an integrated and international development pattern, supporting Shandong Ocean's potential listing as an additional platform for the group [3].

Core Insights - The event "2025 Shanghai Listed Companies Collective Reception Day and Mid-Year Performance Briefing" was successfully held on September 19 [1] - The company responded to investor inquiries regarding the expansion of its fleet, indicating that its oil tanker, dry bulk, and container segments significantly outperformed the market in the first half of the year [1] - The oil tanker and container segments were the primary contributors to the company's profits [1] - For the second half of the year, the company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on the market and is actively expanding its fleet and operational scale in the oil tanker and dry bulk markets [1] - New vessels, including LNG carriers and car roll-on/roll-off ships, are being delivered gradually [1]

Overview - The shipping and port industry in China has shown a stable performance in terms of throughput and trade volume for the first seven months of 2025, with notable growth in container throughput and fluctuations in oil and dry bulk shipping rates [1][2][4][6][7]. Container Shipping - Container throughput at major coastal ports reached 17.871 million TEUs from January to July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [5]. - Major ports such as Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen experienced growth rates of 7.8%, 4.4%, 9.4%, and 8.8% respectively, contributing to 10.77%, 17.73%, 13.78%, and 11.39% of the total throughput [5]. Trade Volume - The total import and export volume for the same period was 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with exports growing by 7.3% to 15.3 trillion yuan, while imports fell by 1.6% to 10.39 trillion yuan [2]. - The import growth rates for electromechanical products and high-tech products were 5.8% and 10.7%, while agricultural products saw a decline of 6.9% [2]. Oil and Bulk Shipping - The oil shipping freight index (BDTI) increased by 18.62% year-on-year, indicating a rise in shipping costs [6]. - However, the crude oil throughput at major receiving ports decreased by 4.34% year-on-year, totaling 22.9 million tons from January to July 2025 [6]. - Dry bulk shipping rates showed an increase, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rising by 11.63% year-on-year [7]. Investment Outlook - The overall performance of throughput remains stable, leading to a "positive" outlook for the shipping and port sector [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the shipping and port industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall throughput performance is stable, so the report maintains a "Bullish" rating for the shipping and port sector [8] Summary by Directory 1. Overview: National Import-Export Volume and Cargo Throughput - **Import-Export Volume**: From January to July 2025, the national import-export volume reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The national import volume was 10.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the national export volume was 15.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [2] - **Cargo Throughput**: From January to July 2025, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports in China reached 66.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and the foreign trade cargo throughput of major coastal ports reached 28.85 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [3] 2. Containers: Container Shipping Freight Rates and Container Throughput - **Container Shipping Freight Rates**: On August 29, 2025, CCFI closed at 1,156.32 points, a year-on-year decrease of 42.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.58%. SCFI closed at 1,445.06 points, a year-on-year decrease of 53.35% and a month-on-month increase of 2.1% [4] - **Container Throughput**: From January to July 2025, the container throughput of major coastal ports in China reached 178.71 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The year-on-year growth rates of Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen were 7.8%, 4.4%, 9.4%, and 8.8% respectively [4] 3. Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Freight Rates and Crude Oil Throughput - **Oil Shipping Freight Rates**: On August 29, 2025, BDTI closed at 1,045 points, a year-on-year increase of 18.62% and a month-on-month increase of 0.29%. On August 28, 2025, the TCE of TD3C, TD25, and TD22 routes were 49,000, 42,700, and 43,300 US dollars per day respectively [6] - **Crude Oil Throughput**: From January to July 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 327 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The crude oil throughput of major crude oil unloading port enterprises reached 229 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.34% [6] 4. Dry Bulk: Bulk Shipping Freight Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput - **Bulk Shipping Freight Rates**: On August 29, 2025, BDI closed at 2,025 points, a year-on-year increase of 11.63% and a month-on-month increase of 4.17% [7] - **Iron Ore Throughput**: On August 27, 2025, the port iron ore inventory was 133 million tons. From January to July 2025, the iron ore throughput of major iron ore unloading port enterprises reached 800 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [7] - **Coal Throughput**: On August 29, 2025, the coal inventory in northern ports was 23 million tons. From January to July 2025, the coal throughput of major coal shipping port enterprises in the north reached 395 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.35% [7] 5. Monthly Throughput of Key Port Listed Companies - **Shanghai International Port Group**: In July 2025, the cargo throughput was 51 million tons, and the container throughput was 4.616 million TEUs. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cargo throughput was 348 million tons, and the cumulative container throughput was 31.681 million TEUs [88] - **Ningbo Port**: In July 2025, the cargo throughput was 95 million tons, and the container throughput was 4.31 million TEUs. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cargo throughput was 695 million tons, and the cumulative container throughput was 29.74 million TEUs [88] - **China Merchants Port Holdings**: In July 2025, the container throughput of Pearl River Delta ports was 1.489 million TEUs, and the container throughput of overseas ports was 3.231 million TEUs. From January to July 2025, the cumulative container throughput of Pearl River Delta ports was 10.457 million TEUs, and the cumulative container throughput of overseas ports was 22.441 million TEUs [88] - **Beibu Gulf Port**: In July 2025, the cargo throughput was 30 million tons, and the container throughput was 792,300 TEUs. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cargo throughput was 205 million tons, and the cumulative container throughput was 5.5508 million TEUs [88] - **Guangzhou Port**: In July 2025, the cargo throughput was 50 million tons, and the container throughput was 2.272 million TEUs. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cargo throughput was 337 million tons, and the cumulative container throughput was 15.676 million TEUs [88]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 12.585 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.125 billion, down 14.91% year-on-year. However, in Q2 2025, the net profit increased by 12.25% year-on-year [4][6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the container shipping segment, which saw a net profit increase of 161.50% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][6] Summary by Sections Oil Tanker Transportation - The company maintains the world's largest VLCC fleet, consisting of 52 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 16.11 million [4] - In H1 2025, the oil tanker segment generated revenue of 4.443 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.46%, with a net profit of 1.293 billion, down 22.77% [4] Dry Bulk Transportation - The company also holds the world's largest VLOC fleet, comprising 93 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 18.5595 million [4] - In H1 2025, the dry bulk segment reported revenue of 3.701 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.50%, and a net profit of 422 million, down 47.27% [4] Container Shipping - The container fleet includes 19 vessels with a total capacity of 42.4 thousand TEU [4] - In H1 2025, the container shipping segment achieved revenue of 3.020 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.93%, and a net profit of 628 million, reflecting a significant increase of 161.50% [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 25.592 billion, 26.874 billion, and 27.703 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.80%, 5.01%, and 3.08% [6] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 5.243 billion, 6.044 billion, and 6.356 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 2.66%, 15.26%, and 5.17% [6]

Core Insights - The company, China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船), reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q2 [2][3]. Revenue Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, while Q2 2025 revenue was 6.989 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.13% [2]. - The revenue from oil tanker transportation in H1 2025 was 4.443 billion yuan, down 10.46% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue at 2.306 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.28% [4][5]. - The dry bulk shipping segment generated 3.701 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 6.50%, with Q2 revenue at 2.021 billion yuan, down 2.00% [7][8]. - The container shipping segment saw a revenue increase to 3.020 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 10.93%, with Q2 revenue at 1.882 billion yuan, an increase of 11.73% [9]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 2.125 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.91%, while Q2 net profit was 1.259 billion yuan, an increase of 12.25% [3]. - The non-recurring net profit for H1 2025 was 1.906 billion yuan, down 22.03%, with Q2 showing a decline of 3.04% to 1.053 billion yuan [3]. - The oil tanker segment's net profit for H1 2025 was 1.293 billion yuan, down 22.77%, while Q2 net profit was 806 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.22% [4][5]. - The dry bulk segment's net profit for H1 2025 was 422 million yuan, down 47.27%, with Q2 net profit at 263 million yuan, a decrease of 40.66% [7][8]. - The container segment's net profit for H1 2025 was 628 million yuan, a significant increase of 161.50%, with Q2 net profit at 293 million yuan, up 115.15% [9]. Fleet Overview - As of mid-2025, the company maintained the world's largest VLCC fleet with 52 vessels (16.11 million deadweight tons) and 7 Aframax vessels (770,000 deadweight tons) [4]. - The dry bulk fleet also remained the largest globally, comprising 93 vessels (18.56 million deadweight tons), including 34 VLOCs (13.13 million deadweight tons) [6]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 25.592 billion yuan, 26.874 billion yuan, and 27.703 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.80%, 5.01%, and 3.08% respectively [9]. - Expected net profits for the same period are projected at 5.243 billion yuan, 6.044 billion yuan, and 6.356 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.66%, 15.26%, and 5.17% respectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in container shipping profits, indicating resilience in performance despite challenges in other segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.585 billion yuan, down 4.91% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.125 billion yuan, down 14.91% year-on-year [1]. - By segment, net profit from tanker transportation was 1.293 billion yuan, down 22.81%; dry bulk transportation was 422 million yuan, down 47.25%; container transportation was 628 million yuan, up 161.67%; roll-on/roll-off transportation was 106 million yuan, down 37.65%; and LNG transportation was 320 million yuan, unchanged [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.259 billion yuan, up 12.25% year-on-year and up 45.49% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Market Analysis - The oil and bulk shipping markets are experiencing weakness, while container shipping profits have surged, highlighting the company's operational resilience [2]. - For tankers, the TCE levels for the VLCC fleet decreased year-on-year due to a high base in 2024, but remained significantly above market indices [2]. - The dry bulk market is under pressure due to aging fleets and stricter environmental regulations, with the BDI average at 1290 points, down 29.74% year-on-year [2]. - The company expanded its container shipping capacity and opened new routes in Asia and Latin America, leading to a significant increase in container shipping net profit [2]. Future Outlook - The oil shipping market may benefit from OPEC+ production increases, which could enhance shipping volumes and support freight rates [3]. - The dry bulk market is expected to recover in H2 2025 due to domestic demand and new mining projects in Guinea, which may boost shipping demand [3]. - The container shipping market could see structural growth opportunities due to favorable tariff policies in Southeast Asia and South America [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 5.33 billion yuan, 7.61 billion yuan, and 8.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.35%, 42.77%, and 5.58% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in Q2 performance, with expectations for a synergy between oil and bulk shipping markets [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 12.585 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.125 billion yuan, down 14.91% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates a positive outlook for the oil and bulk shipping markets, driven by OPEC+ production increases and a recovery in demand for dry bulk shipping [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 25.881 billion yuan in 2023, 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, 26.958 billion yuan in 2025E, 30.436 billion yuan in 2026E, and 31.502 billion yuan in 2027E, with a growth rate of 4.49% in 2025 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.837 billion yuan in 2023, 5.107 billion yuan in 2024, 5.330 billion yuan in 2025E, 7.609 billion yuan in 2026E, and 8.034 billion yuan in 2027E, with a growth rate of 4.35% in 2025 [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.60 yuan in 2023, 0.63 yuan in 2024, 0.66 yuan in 2025E, 0.94 yuan in 2026E, and 0.99 yuan in 2027E [7] Segment Performance - In the first half of 2025, the oil tanker segment generated a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, down 22.81% year-on-year; the dry bulk segment's net profit was 422 million yuan, down 47.25%; the container segment saw a net profit of 628 million yuan, up 161.67%; and the roll-on/roll-off segment's net profit was 106 million yuan, down 37.65% [8] - The report notes that the company continues to expand its container shipping capacity and enhance customer service, leading to significant profit growth in the container segment [8] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the oil shipping market may see increased demand due to OPEC+ production increases, which could lead to a tightening supply and rising freight rates [8] - The dry bulk market is expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by domestic demand and the anticipated production of iron ore and bauxite in Guinea [8] - The container shipping market is projected to benefit from favorable tariff policies in Southeast Asia and South America, creating structural growth opportunities [8]