（2）在风险调整后的表现上，也就是投资圈常用的夏普比率（Sharpe ratio），有47个因子组合在波动率管理后提升了，其中15个 提升显著。 （3）这些超额收益主要集中在价值（value）、盈利能力（profitability）、交易摩擦（trading friction）三类因子上。换句话说，波 动率管理让这些经典的选股逻辑更"抗揍"。 举个形象的例子：原始的价值因子，就像是一辆"快车"，能跑得快，但一旦遇到急转弯就容易翻车；加上波动率管理，就好比给这 辆车装了防抱死制动系统（ABS），速度可能稍慢，但在急弯处不容易被甩出去，跑完全程的胜率反而更高。 如果你是个A股老股民，特别是如果经历过2015年的股市大跌，大概会记得那种"手抖"的感觉：早晨还在犹豫要不要加仓，午后就 被跌停板封死在里面；好不容易熬到反弹，却又在高点追进去，第二天再被套牢。当时短短三个月的时间里，沪深总市值急剧蒸发 了24.28万亿，这是中国股市发展史上最严重的一次股灾。 围绕"3000点魔咒"，这种"追涨杀跌"的故事，过去数年几乎每个中国股民都耳熟能详。问题在于：面对剧烈的市场波动，能不能有 一种机制，既能保住底线，又能抓住机会？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has been rising steadily in the second half of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points and trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating potential opportunities for equity asset allocation [1] Group 1: Fund Launch and Management - The招商均衡优选混合型证券投资基金 (Fund Code: 024027) officially launched on September 2, aiming for long-term net value growth by capturing investment opportunities during the economic recovery [1] - The fund's proposed manager, 吴潇, has nearly 12 years of investment research experience and over 8 years in product investment management, currently serving as the Director of Multi-Asset Investment Management at 招商基金 [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - 吴潇 emphasizes managing portfolio volatility, focusing on balancing market, industry, style, and individual stock volatility to achieve smoother overall portfolio performance and better risk-adjusted returns [2][3] - The investment framework includes pricing and dynamic rebalancing, assessing asset pricing based on macroeconomic, policy, and geopolitical factors over a 3-5 year horizon [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The economic outlook is positive, with supportive policies and a resilient GDP expected in the first half of 2025, leading to a favorable environment for equity asset allocation [4] - Key investment opportunities identified include: - **Dividend Stocks**: Long-term performance is expected to improve due to increasing demand for wealth allocation [4] - **Technology**: Growth in global computing power and AI applications presents significant investment opportunities [5] - **Consumer Sector**: Valuations are at historical lows, with new consumption trends emerging [5] - **Pharmaceuticals**: Supportive policies for healthcare and rapid growth in innovative drugs highlight investment potential in this sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation from low-efficiency, homogeneous competition to high-quality development, marking a significant shift in operational philosophy for enterprises [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The current downturn in the steel industry is primarily driven by a decline in demand, with the level of overcapacity not being severe; the crude steel capacity utilization rate was 66.99% in 2015 and is expected to remain around 80% in the first half of 2025 [1] - Supply-side structural reforms have led to significant improvements in environmental and energy consumption standards, resulting in a notable decrease in the proportion of outdated production capacity, making the current "de-capacity" efforts more challenging than previous reforms [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The focus of competition is shifting from production capacity to technological advancements, with a heated race in the development of special steel materials; for instance, a central enterprise's steel plant is testing a new green hydrogen steelmaking device that could reduce carbon emissions from 2 tons to 0.5 tons per ton of steel [1] - Steel companies are responding to national policies by collaborating on self-discipline in production control, technological upgrades, and product differentiation [1] Group 3: Financial Tools and Risk Management - Financial derivatives have evolved from marginal tools to strategic infrastructures that help companies withstand cyclical fluctuations; firms that integrate financial tools into their operations and innovate technologically are better positioned for future competition [2][3] - A steel plant in North China has integrated global market data and futures prices into its production scheduling, focusing on volatility indicators rather than just traditional metrics [2] - Traders are transitioning from relying on market fluctuations to becoming modern supply chain service providers, emphasizing value-added services and risk management through derivatives [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - In June-July 2024, the rebar futures market showed a premium of 150 yuan/ton over spot prices, indicating a bearish market sentiment and challenges in spot sales; companies are guiding clients to hedge through futures, effectively locking in profits [2]