2025 年 5 月 9 日 下游需求转淡 钢价偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 钢材月报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 14 ⚫ 供给端：上月钢材生产总体平稳，结构上长流程增 产、短流程减产。螺纹钢周产量维持在230万吨左右， 长流程贡献202万吨，短流程减至26.7万吨；热卷产 量保持320万吨高位，钢厂铁水向板材倾斜。短期高 供应仍是主基调，后市关注政策调控对市场的影响。 ⚫ 需求端：钢材继续面临着内需缓慢恢复、外需承压 的不利格局。房建需求仍是主要拖累项，基建支撑 有限。新房销售及施工端未见明显改善，4月建材需 求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In Q1 2025, the public - offering funds allocating stock index futures increased in terms of the number of companies and products, but the holding market value decreased significantly. The market trading volume recovered slowly under the catalysis of the narrative of domestic technology rise, and the market's risk - aversion demand increased after the overseas tariff impact emerged. The performance of different types of funds and the changes in holding positions of different varieties and terms also show different characteristics [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the market started with a sharp decline, and the broad - based indexes had a stable upward trend. The trading volume recovered slowly under the influence of the domestic technology rise narrative. After the "Two Sessions" in March, the overseas tariff impact emerged, increasing the market's risk - aversion demand [3][4]. Changes in the Number of Public - Offering Funds and Product Allocations - The number of public - offering fund companies allocating stock index futures increased to 68, the number of long - position products increased to 327, and the number of short - position products increased to 68 [4]. - By the end of Q1, 148 passive index funds and 108 enhanced index funds allocated stock index futures, an increase of 16 and 15 respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [3]. Changes in Holding Market Value and Position Quantity - The long - position market value decreased to 16.1 billion yuan, and the short - position market value decreased to 4.45 billion yuan, with quarter - on - quarter decreases of 23.7% and 12.6% respectively [4]. - As of the end of March 2025, the total market position of stock index futures was 998,523 lots (single - side calculation), basically unchanged from the previous quarter. The long - position of public - offering funds decreased by 24% to 14,579 lots, accounting for 1.46% of the total market; the short - position decreased by 13% to 3,811 lots, accounting for 0.4% of the total market [3][10]. Changes in Variety and Term Positions - The holding position of IM increased, while the long and short positions of other varieties decreased, and the proportion of IM in the public - offering fund allocation further increased. The long - position was still mainly in the current - quarter contract (June), accounting for 66%, and the short - position continued to move to the near - end, with the proportion of the current - month contract increasing to 42% [3][10]. Performance of Different Types of Funds - The public - offering stock long - short strategy had a high return in Q1, with an average quarterly net value increase of 2.4%, but the share further declined, with 15 out of 23 products experiencing a share decline [3]. Overseas Stock Index Futures Holdings - The change in the public - offering funds' holdings of overseas stock index futures was not significant. The NASDAQ 100 Mini Futures and the Hang Seng Technology Index Futures were still the two varieties with the largest holding positions [3].