1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of inflation recovery expectations and concerns about ultra - long bond supply, the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread has further widened and reached the highest level since 2023. The spread may have some room for compression in the future, but the volatility remains high [1][9]. - In April, the bond market has more positive factors, but the downside space for interest rates is limited, and the market is difficult to break out of the volatile trend. The core driving factors of the current market are still the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [3][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 4 - Month Bond Market Outlook - Recently, due to inflation recovery expectations and concerns about ultra - long bond supply, the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread has risen above 50BP, reaching the highest level since 2023. The Chinese government will issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long special treasury bonds in 2026 [9]. - From the perspective of trading desks, securities firms' short - selling power at the end of the quarter is restricted and they turned to net buyers this week, while funds remain cautious about ultra - long bonds. As of March 27, the cumulative net purchase of 20 - 30Y treasury bonds by funds this month was 670 million yuan [12]. - From the perspective of allocation desks, large - scale banks only buy to stabilize at the end of the quarter, small and medium - sized banks become the main undertakers, and insurance institutions have a weak willingness to allocate. Insurance institutions have a stronger willingness to allocate local bonds than treasury bonds since 2025 and had a net sell of 20 - 30Y treasury bonds in March [16]. - The 30Y - 10Y treasury bond term spread may have some room for compression, but the volatility remains high. Funds' participation in ultra - long bonds this year has been low, and the short - covering of securities firms may drive the repair of ultra - long - end interest rates. For banks, 30 - year treasury bonds are more cost - effective, while insurance institutions' operations are mainly for band trading [18]. - Attention should be paid to the upcoming issuance plan of ultra - long special treasury bonds. In 2024 and 2025, after the plan was announced and before the issuance started, supply concerns drove up ultra - long bond interest rates. After the issuance started, the 30 - year treasury bond interest rate gradually declined. When trading in bands, attention should be paid to preventing the volatility risk of Bond 25 Special 6 [2][20]. - In April, the market has more positive factors, but the downside space for interest rates is limited. The core driving factors are the Middle East situation and inflation expectations. Short - term negative factors have not yet emerged. Positive factors include a loose capital situation and strong allocation desk power, but insurance institutions' purchases of long - term bonds are mainly for band trading [22]. 3.2 3 - Month Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - In the first week of March, the 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1bp to 1.78%. The bond market first traded risk appetite and Two Sessions expectations, with the short - end performing better than the long - end [24]. - In the second week, the 10Y treasury bond yield rose 3bp to 1.81%. Inflation shocks and inter - bank news alternately disturbed the bond market, with the long - end performing worse than the short - end [24]. - In the third week, the 10Y treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 1.83%. Influenced by the economic start - up, inflation recovery expectations, and external market fluctuations, the bond market fluctuated under the tug - of - war between bulls and bears [25]. - In the fourth week, the 10Y treasury bond yield fell 1bp to 1.82%. Geopolitical risks recurred, and the term differentiation of the bond market continued. The ultra - long end showed resistance to decline at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated [25]. 3.2.2 Capital Situation - The central bank net withdrew 141.68 billion yuan through four major tools in March. The capital price declined in March. The monthly average of R001 decreased by 1BP to 1.39%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased by 5bp to 1.50% [26][27]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Trends - In March, the yield performance showed term differentiation, and the curve steepened. Except for 3m, 1y, and 3y, the interest rates of other key - term treasury bonds rose, and the term spreads of all key - term treasury bonds widened [33]. - As of March 27, the 10Y treasury bond new - old bond spread narrowed, the 10Y CDB bond new - old bond spread slightly widened after the new bond was listed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed [34]. 3.2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In March, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the 30Y - 10Y treasury bond spread continued to widen, and the median duration of the full - sample bond funds increased significantly. The 10 - year CDB bond implicit tax rate narrowed overall in March [39]. 3.2.5 Bond Supply - In March, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased compared with February and March 2025. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds decreased, and policy - financial bonds changed from net repayment to net financing [51]. - The issuance scale of treasury bonds in March increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The issuance scale of local government bonds decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased significantly [54][56]. 3.3 Economic Data - From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size achieved rapid growth. The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [60]. - Since March, second - hand housing transactions and port throughput have been stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality. In terms of infrastructure and price high - frequency data, the asphalt开工率 has been weak, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt have risen sharply and then stabilized [61][62]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US March composite PMI dropped to 51.4. Concerns about stagflation have increased, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates within the year has exceeded 50% for the first time. Global bond markets generally declined in March [67][68][69]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted. As of March 27, it closed at 4477.5 points, a 4.95% decline from February 27. The Nanhua Crude Oil Index strengthened significantly, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the Nanhua Pig Index and Shanghai Gold weakened [74]. 3.6 4 - Month Bond Market Calendar - The calendar provides information on liquidity injection and maturity, government bond supply, fundamental data, and important domestic and foreign events from March 30 to April 30, 2026 [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly. Mid - week, aluminum led the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but prices fell in the second half of the week due to the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. The short - term micro - demand for aluminum is still weak, and the dominant factors for non - ferrous metals are capital preference and overseas macro narratives [3]. - Alumina follows the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector, with its price trend converging in a volatile manner. The pattern of oversupply, inventory build - up, and cost collapse remains unchanged, and the mid - term strategy is to short on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Mid - week, aluminum led the non - ferrous sector, with the absolute price breaking historical highs, likely due to stock - futures linkage and ETF market arbitrage. In the second half of the week, prices dropped with the decline of the US stock market and concerns about the overseas AI bubble. In the Friday night session, the decline was relatively moderate [3]. - **Micro - demand**: As of January 29, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons compared with last week. As of January 30, the spot discount in East China and South China widened significantly. The weekly output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to decline, and the cumulative year - to - date output in 2026 decreased by 0.15%. The operating rate of aluminum profiles also declined, and the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to fall to a record low [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price and Inventory**: Alumina prices fluctuated and converged. On Friday night, prices rose, possibly due to position - closing in other sectors and short - covering in the AO variety. As of January 30, the spot price showed a mild decline, and the inventory continued to build up. The ALD full - scale social inventory reached 5.114 million tons on January 29, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Cost**: The weekly output of alumina decreased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north and south entered the maintenance period this week, and some enterprises planned to cut production in February to reduce supply pressure. Low - cost imported ore will arrive at ports in mid - to - late February, and some enterprises plan to adjust the ore application ratio to control costs [4]. 3.3 Trading - **Price Difference**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina weakened this week. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 150 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 153 yuan/ton to - 207 yuan/ton [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased significantly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined, and that of alumina decreased slightly and was at a historically low level [20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of January 30, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 309,300 tons compared with last week. As of December, the port inventory and port inventory days of Chinese bauxite showed an increase. The bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises also increased in December. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia decreased slightly, while the sea - floating inventory increased slightly. The shipping volume from different ports showed a differentiated trend, and the arrival volume increased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory of alumina continued to build up, with an increase of 78,000 tons compared with last week. The factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, port inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of January 29, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 32,000 tons to 800,000 tons, showing a build - up this week [54]. - **Processed Products**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods increased this week. As of December, the finished - product and raw - material inventory ratios of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [58][61]. 3.5 Production - **Bauxite**: In December, the domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output increased slightly. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. The production of bauxite in different provinces showed a differentiated trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [66][67]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained stable. As of January 30, the national operating capacity of alumina was 94.1 million tons, a decrease of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from the previous week. The supply - side situation remained loose [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of January 29, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 858,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,800 tons this week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 15,800 tons, and the output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased by 1,400 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 1.5%, and the operating rates of different sectors such as aluminum plates, strips, and foils also declined [84][85]. 3.6 Profit - **Alumina**: In December, the profit of alumina continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union caliber was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while that in Guangxi was relatively better [92]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [107]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [108]. 3.7 Consumption - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In December 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, by 30,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a differentiated trend [117][119][121]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased compared with the previous month [122].