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茅台价格还会继续下探吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 09:54
Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations, with export versions dropping to as low as 1179 yuan, raising concerns about the overall health of the high-end liquor market and the potential for further declines in prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 500ml 53-degree export version Moutai has fallen to 1179 yuan, while the non-export version is priced at 1430 yuan [1]. - On platforms like Pinduoduo and Taobao, promotional prices for two bottles of export version Moutai are around 3094 yuan (1547 yuan per bottle) [1]. - Since the 618 mid-year promotion, the price of non-export Moutai has been rising, while export prices have been declining, breaching the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The overall consumption situation for liquor is not optimistic, with a report indicating that the average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, and inventory levels up by 25% [3]. - Price inversion phenomena are affecting 60% of companies, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range [3]. Group 3: Impact on Distributors - Distributors face significant challenges as the continuous price drop of Moutai could lead to substantial losses, especially since their procurement costs are around 1800 yuan per bottle [4]. - There is a risk of panic selling among distributors, reminiscent of the price drop from 2000 yuan to 800 yuan during the 2012-2014 adjustment period [4]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices reflects a broader trend where financial attributes are diminishing, returning to consumer-driven demand [6]. - The high terminal prices in the past were largely due to speculation, and the current price drop is seen as a correction of inflated values [6]. - The industry is questioning when this adjustment will reach its bottom and whether Moutai should intervene to stabilize the market [6].
上半年存款增加近18万亿,存款利率下降为何大家更愿意存钱了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 23:33
Group 1 - In the first half of this year, RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion, compared to an increase of 11.46 trillion in the same period last year, indicating a higher willingness to save despite declining deposit rates [2] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.77 trillion this year, contrasting with a decrease of 1.45 trillion last year, suggesting a stronger inclination among companies to save [2] - The continuous decline in deposit rates, with a one-year fixed deposit rate at only 0.95% for a major state-owned bank, has led to a decrease in the yields of cash products, resulting in a faster outflow of funds [2] Group 2 - The lack of effective investment avenues and projects with predictable returns is a major reason for funds remaining in banks, reflecting a general lack of investment confidence among both residents and enterprises [3] - In the first half of this year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion, with household loans rising by 1.17 trillion, while short-term loans decreased by 300 million, indicating a decline in consumer and investment confidence [3] - The decrease in short-term loans from residents this year, compared to an increase last year, highlights a drop in consumption and investment enthusiasm [3] Group 3 - The performance of consumption stocks in the first half of this year indicates weak operating conditions for consumption enterprises, particularly in sectors like liquor, retail, and tourism [4] - National subsidy policies have stimulated demand in sectors such as home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics, contributing to a gradual improvement in consumer confidence [4] - The ongoing low performance of the real estate market continues to dampen investment enthusiasm, as its fluctuations significantly impact various related sectors [4]