Core Insights - The white liquor market has experienced a collective price decline since 2025, affecting both high-end and mid-range products due to a cooling consumption environment and high inventory pressures [1][15][16] - The South China region, particularly the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, has shown significant price differentiation and a notable decline in retail prices for various white liquor products [1][2][3] Market Performance - More than half of the monitored products have seen a price drop since the beginning of the year, with high-end products being the most affected [2][15] - Among 21 monitored products, 15 experienced a decline in average retail prices, with only 4 showing slight increases and 2 remaining stable [2][3] - The most significant price drop was observed in Feitian Moutai, which fell from approximately 2624 CNY to 2368 CNY, a decrease of 256 CNY [2][3] Price Trends by Product - Feitian Moutai's market price has dropped significantly, with current prices ranging from 2100 to 2400 CNY per bottle, marking a decline of over 15% from its peak [3][15] - Other products in the thousand CNY price range, such as the eighth generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, also saw price reductions, with the eighth generation Wuliangye dropping by 110 CNY [10][15] - Mid-range products like Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Guotai Guobiao also experienced price declines, although to a lesser extent compared to high-end products [4][10] Regional Price Dynamics - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 products saw price declines, with Feitian Moutai dropping from 2648 CNY to 2305 CNY [7][8] - Shenzhen's market showed a downward trend in retail prices, although some products had inflated prices due to high-end retail channels [9][10] - Dongguan's market exhibited significant price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and promotional activities, with Feitian Moutai's price dropping to 2299 CNY during peak sales periods [12][13] Inventory and Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with high inventory levels leading to price pressures across all product categories [15][16] - Approximately 60% of companies are facing price inversion, particularly in the 800 to 1500 CNY price range, which is experiencing the most significant downward pressure [15][16] - The average inventory turnover days have increased to 900 days, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [15][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing challenges as companies balance between maintaining prices and expanding market share [17][18] - The introduction of new statistical methods and the inclusion of additional cities like Foshan in price monitoring may provide a clearer picture of market dynamics moving forward [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations, with export versions dropping to as low as 1179 yuan, raising concerns about the overall health of the high-end liquor market and the potential for further declines in prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 500ml 53-degree export version Moutai has fallen to 1179 yuan, while the non-export version is priced at 1430 yuan [1]. - On platforms like Pinduoduo and Taobao, promotional prices for two bottles of export version Moutai are around 3094 yuan (1547 yuan per bottle) [1]. - Since the 618 mid-year promotion, the price of non-export Moutai has been rising, while export prices have been declining, breaching the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The overall consumption situation for liquor is not optimistic, with a report indicating that the average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, and inventory levels up by 25% [3]. - Price inversion phenomena are affecting 60% of companies, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range [3]. Group 3: Impact on Distributors - Distributors face significant challenges as the continuous price drop of Moutai could lead to substantial losses, especially since their procurement costs are around 1800 yuan per bottle [4]. - There is a risk of panic selling among distributors, reminiscent of the price drop from 2000 yuan to 800 yuan during the 2012-2014 adjustment period [4]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices reflects a broader trend where financial attributes are diminishing, returning to consumer-driven demand [6]. - The high terminal prices in the past were largely due to speculation, and the current price drop is seen as a correction of inflated values [6]. - The industry is questioning when this adjustment will reach its bottom and whether Moutai should intervene to stabilize the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward price trend, driven by changes in consumer demand and market dynamics, as indicated by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1][5]. Price Trends - National data shows that liquor prices have decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month as of June 2025, with an overall decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The price of premium liquor brands, such as Feitian Moutai, has dropped from over 3000 yuan to below 2000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in market premium [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from traditional high-alcohol liquor towards lower-alcohol options and craft beers, leading to a contraction in the white liquor market [5][6]. - The demand for high-priced liquor for business banquets and gifts has decreased, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises facing financial pressures [5][6]. Supply and Inventory Issues - The white liquor industry is facing overproduction and high inventory levels, with a reported production decline of 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - Companies are resorting to price reductions as a means to clear excess inventory, with distributors eager to recover funds through lower pricing strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has intensified price competition and increased price transparency, reducing the ability of traditional channels to maintain high prices [6]. - The shift from "face consumption" to a more rational consumer mindset emphasizes value for money and quality, challenging the high-end liquor market's previous status as a social currency [6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has been experiencing fluctuations, with recent increases in wholesale prices, indicating a potential market adjustment and the company's intervention to stabilize prices [1][5][10]. Price Trends - As of June 28, 2025, the wholesale price for 25-year Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) is reported at 1920 RMB per bottle, an increase of 50 RMB from the previous day [1][2]. - The prices for various Moutai products have shown a general upward trend, with 24-year Feitian Moutai (original box) at 1920 RMB, and 23-year Feitian Moutai (original box) at 2010 RMB, both reflecting slight increases [1][2]. - However, some products, such as Xunfeng Feitian, have seen price declines, indicating a mixed market response [3]. Market Dynamics - The price adjustments are attributed to a combination of factors, including pressure on consumption, high inventory levels among distributors, and a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [8][10]. - The company has been proactive in managing supply, aiming for a 9% growth target while addressing market imbalances caused by seasonal demand fluctuations [10][11]. Company Strategy - Moutai has engaged in discussions with major e-commerce platforms like JD and Alibaba to enhance brand presence and manage pricing strategies effectively [6][10]. - The company is focusing on maintaining market order by limiting supply to certain channels and increasing market surveillance to prevent price violations [5][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current price adjustments may reshape the liquor consumption landscape, influenced by broader economic and demographic trends [8][10]. - Moutai's strategic measures, including inventory management and targeted marketing, are expected to support its market position and potentially lead to further share expansion [11].