Core Viewpoint - The offline channels are gradually recovering before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, while online instant retail channels are emerging as a new battleground for the industry [1][6][14] Offline Market Recovery - Offline terminal markets are showing a mild recovery as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, although overall consumption remains weaker compared to previous years [4][5] - Retailers are cautious in stocking up due to existing inventory from the off-season, leading to a more conservative approach compared to previous years [4][5] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association reported that the average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% year-on-year increase, with inventory levels rising by 25% [4] - Guojin Securities noted that while there is a slight recovery in sales, the overall consumption sentiment remains below last year's levels, with a projected year-on-year decline of about 20% in sales during the festive window [4][5] Online Instant Retail Growth - In contrast to the offline market, online channels are experiencing rapid growth due to the rise of instant retail, becoming a new growth point for liquor sales [6][12] - Various platforms, such as Meituan, are offering quick delivery services for a wide range of liquor products, enhancing consumer convenience [11][12] - The collaboration between liquor brands and instant retail platforms is becoming a trend, with several companies forming strategic partnerships to enhance their online presence and sales [12][13] Changing Consumption Scenarios - The competition in the liquor industry is shifting from price and channel battles to creating lifestyle and consumption scenarios [14][15] - Traditional high-end consumption scenarios are declining, with a reported 60%-80% drop in liquor sales for business banquets [14] - New consumption scenarios are emerging, such as home drinking, camping, and casual gatherings, leading to a demand for smaller, more portable liquor products [15] - The rise of outdoor activities is prompting liquor companies to market their products as essential items for camping, with a focus on small packaging and convenience [15] Integration of Online and Offline Channels - The liquor industry is gradually building a new ecosystem that integrates online and offline channels, enhancing consumer experience through a combination of brand promotion, product cultivation, and consumer interaction [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Dr. Lu Ting, Chief Economist at Nomura China, on the current state of China's macroeconomy, emphasizing the importance of supply-driven demand and the role of new consumption scenarios in boosting domestic demand [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a 1.3 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly contributing to this growth [5]. - The sales of household appliances surged by over 50% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations, indicating a strong retail performance [5]. - The government aims to "greatly boost consumption and improve investment efficiency" as a top priority in its work report, suggesting a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand [4]. Group 2: Structural Economic Changes - The article highlights the ongoing structural transformation of China's economy, shifting from real estate to advanced manufacturing, with recent positive developments attributed to decades of accumulated benefits rather than short-term changes [7]. - The rapid development of China's manufacturing sector, particularly in industrial robotics, is noted, with domestic production rates exceeding 60% and total installations in 2024 surpassing those of other countries combined [7]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Dr. Lu emphasizes the need for a stable real estate market and effective debt resolution in the property sector to support consumer wealth, which is crucial for sustained consumption growth [5]. - Enhancing social security and welfare systems, along with addressing income distribution issues, is seen as vital for making consumption a key pillar of stable economic growth [5]. - The article suggests that creating new consumption scenarios, like the "Su Chao" football league, can stimulate demand and enhance local economic activity [6].