1月6日，港股三大指数集体高开，恒指开盘涨0.59%，恒科指涨0.79%，国企指数涨0.48%。盘面上，科 网股涨多跌少，电力设备股高开，锂电池股活跃，保险股延续涨势，汽车股多数上涨。港股消费板块高 开后保持强势，港股消费ETF（513230）现小幅微涨。持仓股中，上美股份、泡泡玛特领涨超4%，蜜 雪集团、布鲁可、同程旅行、卫龙美味等均涨超2%，下跌方面，珍酒李渡、新秀丽、九兴控股等跌幅 居前。 据交通运输部统计，1月1日至1月3日，全社会跨区域人员流动量5.95亿人次，相比去年同期增长 19.6％，日均1.98亿人次。 文化和旅游部1月4日公布的数据显示，元旦假期三天，全国国内出游1.42亿 人次，国内出游总花费847.89亿元，人均597.11元。北京和上海是热门旅游目的地。据两地官方信息披 露，北京元旦假期接待游客880.8万人次，实现旅游总花费109.7亿元；同期上海市共接待游客682.03万 人次，实现全要素旅游消费总额122.71亿元。 相关热门ETF： 假期催化+冰雪经济：旅游ETF（562510） 提振内需+低估赛道：食品饮料ETF（515170） 电商龙头+新消费：港股消费ETF（51323 ...

12月29日，港股开盘，恒指涨0.43%，国指涨0.59%，恒生科技指数涨0.88%。盘面上，新能源车概念股 普涨，铜业股领衔有色金属股上涨，半导体芯片股强势。港股消费板块早盘窄幅震荡，港股消费 ETF(513230)现小幅下跌。 海南自贸港全岛封关首周，政策红利释放带动市场活跃，离岛免税消费、外贸企业增长等数据亮眼。离 岛免税层面，首周离岛免税购物金额11亿元、购物件数77.5万件、购物人数16.5万人，同比2024年同期 分别增长54.9%、11.8%、34.1%。封关首周，海南新增外贸备案企业1972家，同比增长2.3倍。截至目 前，全年新增备案报关单位3万余家，同比增长超40%。航运层面，海南三亚飞往捷克布拉格的国内第 七航权航线投运。海南封关后首周(12.22-12.28)美兰机场旅客吞吐量同比+11.8%，飞猪《2026元旦假期 出游风向标》显示，截至目前，海南元旦假期门票预订量同比增长3倍，包车游预订量同比增长4倍。预 计随封关叠加避寒游升温，海南旺季旅游景气度边际持续提升。 电商龙头+新消费：港股消费ETF(513230)。 消息面上，财政部相关负责人在12月27日至28日举行的全国财政工作会 ...

Group 1 - The market continues to recover, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3963 points [3] - Recent afternoon surges indicate that buying funds are waiting for short sellers to drive prices down before accumulating shares [4] - The recent appreciation of the RMB beyond 7 signifies a stronger willingness to exchange currency compared to previous years, which may support the economy [7] Group 2 - The RMB's future direction is anticipated to stabilize around 6.9, as rapid appreciation could negatively impact exports and technological innovation [8][10] - The strong willingness to exchange currency this year is mitigated by many companies having hedged their positions, limiting potential losses [10][12] - The monthly customer option buying volume in the banking sector has reached 30 billion USD, doubling from last year [11] Group 3 - Signals to boost domestic demand are becoming more pronounced, with both spot and forward exchange rates showing significant appreciation [15][16] - The current low volatility environment during the RMB's appreciation suggests that large reversals are unlikely, similar to slow bull markets in equities [25][28] - The revaluation period for Chinese assets is expected to open officially [30] Group 4 - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing is seen as beneficial for the real estate sector, but not necessarily for housing prices [31] - The true intention behind the government's focus on "investing in people" can be understood by observing rental prices, which are leading indicators for housing stability [35][36] - The continuous decline in the REITs index indicates significant rental pressure [37] Group 5 - The A500 ETF has seen increased trading volume, with the leading A500 ETF's transaction volume reaching 53.3 billion [40] - The current market volatility has decreased, suggesting that many short positions in derivatives may convert to long positions in the future [40] - The investment landscape is shifting towards sectors like military and robotics, with insurance stocks reaching new highs and showing a 33% increase this year [40]

临近年末，商圈促销等持续引发人们的消费热情。 特约评论员熊夏柠 临近年末，各地文旅消费火热，一些一线城市的演唱会经济火爆。有的城市积极提振内需、发放消费券也如火如荼，电商平台频推跨年促销， 汽车与家电以旧换新、商圈促销等持续引发人们的消费热情。 近日召开的中央经济工作会议提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质 商品和服务供给。优化"两新"政策实施。清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。 坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求。 可以说，提振内需的部署十分完备，消费已经成为拉动我国经济的重要组成部分。近年来在一系列精准施策之下，消费势头不断向好。服务消 费呈持续回升态势，前11个月服务零售额同比增长5.4%，连续3个月回升。 目前，大宗消费、服务消费、新型消费等领域的带动作用明显。大宗消费在以旧换新政策的支持下，已经带动了显著的消费增量，目前以旧换 新还正在不断扩围。服务消费也不断扩容，尤其是在我国正在构建生育友好型社会、增加文旅体供给、高端医疗等政策背景下，促进服务消费 如虎添翼。另外，新型消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording seven consecutive days of gains, driven by sectors such as commercial aerospace, large aircraft, and satellite navigation [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The macro environment characterized by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar is expected to create a favorable allocation window for emerging markets represented by A-shares [1] - In 2025, commodity prices, including gold, are anticipated to continue rising, while the narrative around AI remains active [1] - Domestic policies aimed at reducing internal competition are expected to boost military industry enthusiasm, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, electronics, new energy, and military industry leading the gains [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Guotai Junan is optimistic about the performance of A-shares in 2026, believing that the "transformation bull market" is not over and that market style will shift towards quality growth [1] - An improvement in the profitability of listed companies is expected next year, along with an expansion in the scale of new market entrants, indicating more pronounced "deposit migration" trends [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the AI theme is likely to continue, and under the backdrop of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, undervalued consumer sectors are expected to see fundamental improvements, with a focus on specific ETFs in food and beverage (515170) and tourism (562510) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the outlook for China's consumer market is optimistic, with expectations of a stronger RMB by 2026 and a stabilization in the real estate market, which will boost consumer confidence and stimulate local consumption [1] - PwC highlights the significant potential of the Chinese consumer market, driven by the growth of the middle and high-income groups who are increasingly focused on health and sustainability [1] - Retailers are leveraging technology and artificial intelligence to accelerate category management and the development of private labels, enhancing their competitive edge in the market [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is actively promoting domestic demand and attracting foreign direct investment, with new policies being implemented to create substantial business opportunities in the consumer market [1] - Specific measures include tax incentives for reinvestment of profits by foreign investors, the full operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, and enhanced tax benefits and open measures in the Greater Bay Area cooperation zones [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. The overall view is that different commodities face diverse market conditions, with some showing potential for price increases, others for decreases, and some expected to trade within specific ranges or remain volatile. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed a sideways movement yesterday. With economic data needing a boost, supply tightness persists, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price dropped by 1.13% yesterday. Supply increased slightly while demand weakened, and prices are expected to trade sideways [2]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price rose by 2.71% yesterday. Supply remained stable while demand was strong, but the upside is limited, and downward pressure persists [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2512 contract price fell by 0.78% yesterday. Supply tightened due to production cuts, demand was mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips cautiously [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 05 contract price decreased by 0.48%. Supply increased and demand was stable, and the market is expected to trade weakly between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 05 contract price rose by 1.47%. Supply was stable while demand declined, and the market is expected to trade widely between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Tin**: The price moved weakly yesterday. Supply was tight, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2605 contract price rose by 4 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to mainly observe and consider shorting the 2605 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2605 contract price rose by 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2605 contract price fell by 7.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe and close previous positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are in a downward trend. Supply is mixed, demand is divided, and the market is trading the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply - demand is complex, and the futures are expected to decline while spot prices may weaken [6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market is falling. Supply is seasonally decreasing but increasing year - on - year, demand is weak, and the market is expected to trade weakly [6]. - **White Sugar**: The 05 contract price fell by 1.34%. International and domestic markets are under pressure, and the strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising, and domestic prices are also increasing. Supply - demand is mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply - demand is balanced, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply is abundant, demand is seasonally increasing, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price fell by 3.02%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to observe [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [8][9]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract rose by 1.5%. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the strategy is to short [9]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, PTA supply is short - term down and mid - term under inventory pressure. The strategy is to hold a long - term bullish view on PX and be cautious on PTA [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2605 contract showed a wide - range oscillation. Supply - demand is balanced with inventory increasing, and the market is expected to trade sideways [9]. - **Glass**: The FG05 contract rose by 0.4%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [9]. - **PP**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [10]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to take profits and wait for mid - term de - stocking opportunities [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell to a new low. Supply pressure is high, demand is in the off - season, and the strategy is to short [10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply - demand is weak in the short - term and the strategy is to trade sideways, with a long - term bullish view on styrene [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa05 contract rose by 1.4%. Supply increased, inventory is high, demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the Chinese economy is not merely relying on luck for 2026, but rather on patience, structure, and practical efforts, suggesting a steady rhythm will lead to faster progress [5] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The year-end review and planning for the upcoming year highlight the importance of addressing pressures while maintaining a clear long-term positive outlook, which serves as a stabilizing factor [4] - The policy approach is characterized as a combination of precise measures, with continued active fiscal policies and flexible monetary policies aimed at boosting consumption, investment, and innovation simultaneously [4] - The focus on domestic demand is prioritized, with a clear logic that stabilizing income and consumption will naturally stabilize expectations [4] Group 2: Structural Changes - The article identifies new productive forces, artificial intelligence, and green transformation as key areas for economic acceleration, emphasizing the need to optimize new growth while revitalizing existing resources [4] - The stance against "involutionary competition" indicates a shift towards higher quality economic development rather than mere expansion [4] Group 3: Reform and Opening Up - Ongoing reforms in the unified market, private economy, and capital markets are highlighted, along with a shift in foreign trade focus from goods to services and digital trade, enhancing the attractiveness of the Chinese market [4] - The article suggests that true strength comes from freedom within order, reflecting a commitment to reform and opening up [4] Group 4: Social Welfare - The emphasis remains on improving livelihoods through concrete actions in employment, education, healthcare, and housing, reinforcing that stabilizing expectations equates to stabilizing confidence [4]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 政策更细化，方向更聚焦——学习中央经 济工作会议精神 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 服务消费提振核心 CPI：2025 年 11 月通胀 | 2025-12-11 | | --- | --- | | 点评 | | | 淡 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a rebound in exports and a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD [10]. Core Insights - China's political bureau has prioritized boosting domestic demand as the primary goal for 2026, indicating a strategic shift towards internal consumption [10]. - Despite the growth in exports driving manufacturing development, the manufacturing sector in China is still experiencing a decline [10]. - The report outlines a moderate growth target of 5% for 2026, emphasizing a commitment to long-term progress [10].