Core Insights - The price increase of various storage products is impacting the downstream consumer market, leading to a collective price hike for new mid-to-high-end smartphones in China, prompting institutions to revise down their global smartphone and laptop shipment forecasts for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - TrendForce has downgraded the global smartphone shipment forecast for 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2%, and the laptop shipment forecast from a growth of 1.7% to a decline of 2.4% [1] - The ongoing inflation and strong upward cycle of memory prices are expected to further pressure the production and shipment forecasts if supply-demand imbalances worsen [1] Group 2: Cost Structure and Pricing Impact - The combined cost of DRAM and NAND Flash is projected to increase the overall BOM cost of devices by approximately 5% to 7% in 2026, which will particularly affect low-end smartphone models [2][3] - The share of memory components in the BOM cost for laptops is expected to rise from about 10%-18% to over 20% due to significant price increases [2] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The anticipated increase in laptop prices by 5% to 15% in 2026 is likely to create substantial pressure on demand, with consumers potentially delaying upgrades or shifting to the second-hand market [3] - The mid-range market may experience a significant slowdown in upgrade momentum, as both enterprise and household users are inclined to extend the lifecycle of their devices [3] - The monitor market, while less directly impacted by memory price increases, may still face challenges if overall PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual monitor shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with inflation impacting consumer market performance and a strong upward cycle in memory prices leading to increased overall costs and potential price hikes for end products, which may further affect consumer demand [2]. Group 1: Smartphone Market - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones in 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2% due to rising memory costs [2]. - The price increase in DRAM is expected to raise the BOM cost of smartphones by approximately 8-10% in 2025, with overall BOM costs projected to increase by 5-7% in the following year [3]. - Smaller smartphone brands may struggle to secure resources due to tight memory supply, potentially leading to a market reshuffle favoring larger players [4]. Group 2: Laptop Market - The laptop market is anticipated to face dual pressures of cost and demand in 2026, with memory components expected to account for over 20% of the BOM cost due to significant price increases [5]. - If brands pass on costs to consumers, laptop prices may rise by 5-15%, which could dampen demand, particularly in the low-end market where price sensitivity is high [5]. - The mid-range market may see a slowdown in replacement cycles as both corporate and household users extend the lifespan of their devices [5]. Group 3: Monitor Market - The monitor market, which typically uses smaller capacity memory, is less directly impacted by price increases; however, it may suffer indirectly if PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [6]. Group 4: BOM Cost Analysis - For different market segments, the BOM cost increase from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 is projected at 12% for high-end and mid-range products, and 10% for low-end products, with DRAM and SSD components making up 23%, 21%, and 20% of the BOM cost respectively [8].

Core Insights - The global market is expected to face uncertainty in 2026, with inflation continuing to disrupt consumer market performance and a strong upward cycle in memory prices leading to increased overall costs and potential price hikes for end products [1] Smartphone Market - TrendForce has revised down its 2026 global smartphone production and shipment forecast from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2% due to rising memory costs [1] - DRAM prices are expected to rise significantly, with a projected increase of over 75% year-on-year in Q4 2025, leading to an estimated 8-10% increase in BOM costs for smartphones [2] - The low-end smartphone segment is particularly vulnerable, with brands likely to reduce the proportion of low-end models and increase prices across their product lines to maintain operations [2] Laptop Market - The laptop market is anticipated to face dual pressures of cost and demand in 2026, with memory components expected to account for over 20% of the BOM cost due to continuous price increases [3] - If brands pass on the increased costs, laptop prices may rise by 5-15%, which could negatively impact demand, especially in the low-price segment where consumers may delay upgrades or turn to the second-hand market [3] - The mid-range market may also see a slowdown in upgrade momentum as both businesses and households extend the lifecycle of their devices [3] Monitor Market - Monitors, which typically use smaller capacity memory, are less directly affected by price increases; however, they may still face indirect impacts if overall PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [4] BOM Cost Increases - The BOM cost increases for different market segments are projected as follows: High-End (12%), Mid-Range (12%), and Low-End (10%) from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 [5] - The percentage of DRAM and SSD in BOM costs for Q3 2026 is expected to be 23% for High-End, 21% for Mid-Range, and 20% for Low-End [5]

Core Insights - The global market in 2026 is expected to face uncertainty due to persistent inflation affecting consumer behavior, alongside a strong upward cycle in memory prices, leading to increased costs for end products and potential price hikes that could impact the consumer market [2][3]. Smartphone Market - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones in 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2% due to rising costs driven by DRAM price increases, which surged over 75% year-on-year in Q4 2025, raising the BOM cost by 8-10% [3][4]. - The ongoing tight supply of memory components is expected to lead to a market reshuffle, favoring larger smartphone brands as smaller brands struggle to secure resources [3]. Laptop Market - The laptop market is projected to face dual pressures of rising costs and declining demand in 2026, with memory components (DRAM and NAND Flash) expected to account for over 20% of the BOM cost, up from 10-18% [4][5]. - If brands pass on the increased costs, laptop prices may rise by 5-15%, which could lead to delayed upgrades or a shift to the second-hand market, particularly in the low-end segment [5]. - The mid-range market may also see a slowdown in upgrade momentum as both corporate and household users extend the lifecycle of their devices [5]. BOM Cost Analysis - The BOM cost increase for high-end, mid-range, and low-end laptops is estimated at 12%, 12%, and 10% respectively from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026, with DRAM and SSD components making up 23%, 21%, and 20% of the BOM cost in Q3 2026 [6]. Display Market - The display market, while less directly impacted by memory price increases due to smaller memory capacities, may still face challenges if overall PC retail prices rise significantly, potentially leading to a decline in display shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [5].