2025 年 08 月 25 日 江波龙 (301308) ——25Q2 营收 59 亿元创历史新高，毛利率 14.8%环比 显著提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,464 | 10,196 | 20,311 | 23,440 | 25,025 | | 同比增长率（%） | 72.5 | 12.8 | 16.3 | 15.4 | 6.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 499 | 15 | 615 | 785 | 1,120 | | 同比增长率（%） | - | -97.5 | 23.4 | 27.6 | 42.8 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.20 | 0.04 | 1.47 | 1.87 | 2.67 | | 毛利率（%） | 19.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 16.7 | 16.8 | | ROE（%） | 7.7 | 0.2 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 1 ...

早 报 精 选 4、美国CPI同比涨幅低于市场预期，交易员加大下月降息押注。 5、中国恒大：将在8月25日从港交所退市。 宏 观 新 闻 1、 财政部等三部门印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》。其中提出，对符合条件的个人消费贷款给予财政贴息。贴息范围 包括单笔5万元以下消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家装、电子产品、健康医疗等重 点领域消费。对于单笔5万元以上的消费，以5万元消费额度为上限进行贴息。 2、财政部、中国人民银行等九部门印发 《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，同时符合条件的贷款可享受贴息政策。方案提 出，对于经办银行向服务业经营主体发放的贷款，财政部门按照贷款本金对经营主体进行贴息，贴息期限不超过1年，年贴息比例为 1个百分点，中央财政、省级财政分别承担贴息资金的90%、10%。单户享受贴息的贷款规模最高可达100万元。 3、外交部发言人林剑昨日答记者问。记者提问称，特朗普称可能会允许英伟达在华销售"特供版"芯片。林剑表示，中方已多次表明 在美输华芯片问题上的原则立场，希望美方以实际行动维护全球产供链稳定畅通。 4、外交部发言人林剑昨日答记者问。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) prices due to increased competition and supply surplus, which may pose challenges for market leader SK Hynix by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: HBM Market Trends - Analysts warn that HBM prices may experience a double-digit decline by 2026, driven by increased supply and competition, which could pressure SK Hynix's profit margins [1]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its growth forecast for HBM, projecting a year-on-year growth of 25%, down from a previous estimate of 45% [2]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM is adjusted to $36 billion for 2025 and $45 billion for 2026, reflecting a 13% downward revision from earlier estimates [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix faces challenges as NVIDIA's next-generation GPU, Rubin, will not significantly increase HBM capacity, limiting demand growth for SK Hynix [3]. - Analysts predict that SK Hynix's market share may shrink when HBM4 is launched in 2025, despite potential demand boosts from the lifting of export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips to China [3]. - Samsung's HBM shipments are expected to grow at a rate of 20% annually by 2026, which could further pressure SK Hynix's profit margins [3]. Group 3: Emerging Competitors - Chinese memory companies are rapidly closing the technology gap with global leaders, planning to start mass production of HBM3 by the end of 2026 [4]. - Although Chinese HBM products may face export restrictions, their domestic expansion could weaken SK Hynix's position in the Chinese market [4].

Group 1: DRAM Industry Overview - The DRAM industry revenue for Q1 2025 is reported at $27.01 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.5% due to falling contract prices for conventional DRAM and a contraction in HBM shipment volumes [1][2] - Major players in the DRAM market include SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, with SK Hynix leading with a market share of 36.0% despite a 7.1% revenue decline, while Samsung's revenue dropped by 19.1% to $9.1 billion, resulting in a market share decrease to 33.7% [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Forecasts - Anticipated price increases for Server and PC DDR4 modules in Q2 2025 are expected to be between 18-23% and 13-18% respectively, driven by reduced production from major suppliers and proactive inventory stocking by buyers [3][4] Group 3: OLED Technology and Market Growth - The demand for mid-sized displays is growing, with OLED technology expected to capture a larger market share due to its advantages such as self-emission and high contrast [4] - OLED display shipments are projected to increase by 80.6% year-over-year in 2025, with the overall market penetration expected to rise to 2%, potentially reaching 5% by 2028 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Storage plans to cease production of DDR4 memory and shift focus entirely to DDR5 and HBM technologies, with an expected end of life (EOL) for DDR4 products by mid-2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Production Changes - Changxin Storage will issue an EOL notice for DDR4 products in Q3, with reports indicating that DDR4 products are already nearly out of stock in the market [2]. - The company will no longer develop standard DDR4 products, retaining only some production lines for Gigabyte Innovation to ensure supply for the consumer market [2]. - In addition to DDR5, Changxin is reportedly developing a high-end HBM solution, likely HBM3, driven by government policies urging major chip manufacturers to align with national goals, particularly in AI and cloud infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - International competitors like Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix have also been reducing their DDR4 product offerings, with SK Hynix planning to decrease its DDR4 production share from 40% in Q2 2024 to 30% in Q3 and further to 20% in Q4 [4]. - Samsung has initiated a reduction in DDR4 production, reallocating capacity to advanced products like DDR5 and LPDDR5 [5]. Group 3: Future Projections - Changxin Storage's DDR4 and LPDDR4X DRAM chips are primarily produced using 17-18nm process technology, with expectations that the company will hold a 13% share of the global DRAM market capacity in 2024, contributing 6% to global shipment volume and 3.7% to sales [6]. - By 2025, Changxin Storage's production capacity is projected to reach levels comparable to Micron Technology [7].

Market News - International oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with WTI crude oil remaining flat at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 0.05% to $64.81 per barrel [1] - International gold prices decreased slightly, with spot gold falling by 0.46% to $342.21 per ounce and COMEX gold futures dropping by 0.7% to $342.20 per ounce [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 0.11% to $33.645 per ounce [1] - European stock markets closed mostly higher, with Germany's DAX index rising by 1.68% to 24027.65 points and France's CAC40 index increasing by 1.21% to 7828.13 points [1] Industry Insights - Figure, a humanoid robot company, announced that its F.03 model has officially started walking, with CEO Brett Adcock emphasizing the advanced hardware [2] - Figure is actively recruiting hundreds of positions, including multiple AI engineers, and aims to deploy autonomous humanoid robots by 2025, which is expected to significantly advance the fields of AI, autonomy, and integrated technology [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing dual catalysts of technological validation and commercialization, with a projected market size for embodied intelligence expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2026 [2] - The cloud service providers (CSPs) in North America are increasing AI investments, which is anticipated to drive significant growth in enterprise SSD demand by Q3 2025, with a potential price increase of 10% due to tight supply [3] - Major NAND Flash manufacturers have initiated production cuts of 10%-15%, leading to an expected price increase for DDR4 products [3] - The satellite communication sector is advancing with the approval of the "5G Satellite Radio Interface Technical Specification," which aims to enhance the integration of satellite and terrestrial communication systems [5] - The 5G NTN technology is expected to enable direct satellite connections for mobile devices, meeting the demands for high-precision positioning in autonomous driving applications [6] - The satellite internet market is projected to experience explosive growth in the next five years, with multiple trillion-dollar application scenarios expected to emerge [6]

Important Market News - The National Internet Information Office, in collaboration with financial management departments, has shut down accounts and websites spreading false information about the capital market, engaging in illegal stock recommendations, and promoting virtual currency trading [1] Industry Insights - The CMG World Robot Competition will take place on May 25, 2025, in Hangzhou, with Yushu Technology participating as a partner. The competition emphasizes high technical barriers, particularly in structural stability and impact resistance for combat scenarios [2] - Zhiyuan Robotics has secured new financing from JD.com and Shanghai Embodied Intelligence Fund, with plans to scale production of its Lingxi X2 robot by the second half of 2025, aiming for thousands of units by the end of 2026 [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing dual catalysts of technological validation and commercialization, with events driving technological breakthroughs and policy support accelerating the transition towards practical applications [3] - The global NAND Flash market is facing a 25.3% quarter-over-quarter decline in Q1 2025, primarily due to reduced enterprise SSD purchases and ongoing consumer weakness, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance [4] - Major NAND manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, have initiated production cuts of 10%-15% to adjust market structure, which is expected to support a price recovery in the second half of 2025 [5] - A new national online identity authentication service will be implemented on July 15, 2025, aimed at reducing personal information collection while ensuring user identity verification [6][7] Avoidance Alerts - Key shareholders of Koyuan Pharmaceutical, Xianggang Technology, Youyan Powder Materials, and Nongxin Technology have announced plans to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of total shares through various trading methods [8]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung has decided to increase the prices of DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM products, with DDR4 seeing a rise of approximately 20% and DDR5 around 5%, marking the first price increase in over a year [2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Samsung has established a new pricing strategy for NAND flash and DRAM products, planning to raise prices by 3% to 5% across major global clients, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties [2]. - SK Hynix has also raised DRAM prices by 12% recently, indicating a broader industry trend towards price increases [2]. - Micron Technology, the third-largest DRAM manufacturer, initiated price hikes starting in April, with PC DDR4 8Gb prices increasing by 22.22% month-over-month, marking the first increase since April of the previous year [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The DRAM market faced challenges last year due to decreased demand and oversupply, with average fixed trading prices for PC DRAM products dropping by 20.59% in November [2]. - Prices remained stable in the first quarter of this year after the decline [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rumors regarding Samsung's potential discontinuation of 1z process 8Gb LPDDR4 memory production, which were denied by the company, impacting market expectations for Taiwanese manufacturers like Nanya and Winbond [1][2]. Group 1: Samsung's Production Status - Samsung has denied rumors of stopping the production of 1z process 8Gb LPDDR4 memory, stating that all production is proceeding as scheduled [1][2]. - The market had anticipated a shift in market share to Taiwanese companies, but the denial of the rumors led to a decline in stock prices for Nanya and a less robust performance for Winbond [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the denial of production cuts, industry experts note that Samsung is reallocating some DDR4 capacity to higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM, but this does not equate to a complete withdrawal from the DDR4 market [2]. - TrendForce predicts that the memory industry is experiencing a preemptive stocking wave due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash, although this momentum may be limited to the second quarter [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape in DRAM Market - SK Hynix has overtaken Samsung as the global leader in the DRAM market, capturing 36% of the market share compared to Samsung's 34% as of Q1 2025, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape [3][4]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, driven by artificial intelligence applications, has contributed to SK Hynix's rise, with the company holding a 70% share of the HBM market [3][4]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Future Projections - Analysts expect SK Hynix to report impressive financial results, with a projected 38% increase in sales and a 129% increase in operating profit for the March quarter [4]. - Counterpoint Research forecasts that SK Hynix will maintain its lead in the HBM market, with over 50% of the market share in terabit HBM shipments by 2025, while Samsung's share is expected to drop below 30% [4][5]. Group 5: Long-term Challenges and Market Sentiment - Despite the current strong demand for HBM DRAM, long-term risks exist due to potential trade impacts from tariff policies, which could pose structural challenges to market growth [5]. - Analysts remain cautious about the broader economic factors that could affect quarterly performance, although they still view Samsung as a resilient player in the memory sector with potential for future growth [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Despite increasing macroeconomic uncertainties, TSMC maintains its advanced packaging investment plans based on the strong expected demand for AI semiconductors in the medium to long term [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Investment and Strategy - TSMC announced a capital expenditure (CapEx) of $38 billion to $42 billion for this year, maintaining its investment plans despite uncertainties in AI infrastructure investment due to low-cost AI models and tariff pressures from the U.S. [1] - TSMC expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% for AI accelerator-related sales from 2024 to 2029, with this year's sales projected to double compared to last year [2]. Group 2: Advanced Packaging and HBM Demand - TSMC plans to double its CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity to 70,000 units per month, which is crucial for high-performance AI accelerators and HBM [2]. - The expansion of advanced packaging investments benefits the HBM memory industry, with companies like SK Hynix supplying HBM to major cloud service providers and AI leaders like NVIDIA [2]. Group 3: HBM Market Dynamics - SK Hynix aims to increase the proportion of its 12-layer products to over half of its total HBM3E shipments in the first half of this year, indicating a strong focus on high-value HBM production [3]. - Samsung and Micron are also expanding their HBM businesses, with Samsung developing an improved version of HBM3E and Micron completing the development of 12-layer HBM3E [3].