AMOLED方面：刚性AMOLED面板因替代效应持续，需求低迷，价格维持低位波动;柔性AMOLED面 板继续面临需求端与供应端的双重压力。终端品牌因成本控制与出货调整，对面板采购趋于谨慎;面板 厂为维持稼动率与市场份额，在议价与竞标中采取更为积极的定价策略。叠加此前部分面板厂为冲刺全 年出货目标，提前释放产能的影响，CINNO Research预计，柔性AMOLED面板价格在1月预计将继续下 探; CINNO Research预测，2026年1月和2026年2月，a-Si模组价格与LTPS面板价格或将呈现下降趋势;柔性 AMOLED面板价格持续处于下降通道。 CINNO Research发文称，进入2026年1月，手机面板市场正式步入传统淡季，叠加上游存储器价格连续 数月上涨，终端品牌为缓解成本压力，纷纷主动缩减出货目标以控制经营风险，由此导致手机面板整体 需求明显走弱。在终端拉货动能不足的背景下，上游面板厂稼动率普遍承压，价格下行压力进一步加 剧。 a-Si方面：受终端整体需求收缩影响，模组端订单能见度显著降低。与此同时，多条新增产线产能逐步 释放，市场供给过剩的压力进一步加大。供需失衡的格局下，a-Si面 ...

2026年首个交易日，全球科技股延续强势行情，半导体及存储板块成为核心推手。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 全球半导体开年集体爆发，两大存储巨头涨超10%，外资投行大幅上调全年价格预期，长鑫上市扩产也 有望带来设备厂商想象力，挖到这只A股存储龙头还直接投资了其23亿元股份 美股市场中，闪迪单日大涨近16%，美光科技涨超10%，光刻机龙头阿斯麦涨超8%，台积电更是大涨超 5%并创历史新高；韩股方面，三星电子受益于HBM4产品获客户认可，股价飙升7.2%刷新收盘纪录。 港股市场同样不甘示弱，"国产GPU第一股"壁仞科技首秀涨75%，华虹半导体涨超9%，中芯国际港股 涨超5%，百度官宣昆仑芯申请赴港上市后涨超9%。 消息面上，海外投资大行称得益于半导体企业2026年资本开支潜在提升空间，台积电、阿斯麦业绩有望 再超预期。 此外，摩根士丹利表示，2026年存储器市场正在收紧而非放松，制造约束与更强需求的碰撞将推动价格 持续走高，该行已将2026年DRAM平均价格预期上调62%，NAND平均价格预期上调75%。台股存储厂 商旺宏更是直接宣布，2026年第一季度将NAND产品价格上调100%，NOR产品价格上调50 ...

深圳南山益田假日广场内集结了众多手机、笔记本电脑品牌。 智能手机、笔记本电脑等消费市场上最常见的电子产品正面临新一轮涨价预期。12月16日，记者从市场研究 机构TrendForce集邦咨询获悉，由于预期2026年第一季存储器价格将显著上涨，全球终端产品面临成本考 验，智能手机、笔记本电脑产业向上修改产品价格、调降规格，销量展望再度下修已难避免，资源优势将向 少数龙头品牌高度集中。 热门旗舰机型价格仍然坚挺 尽管涨价预期强劲，但在年底时节，各大消费电子品牌仍然通过大幅降价来维持市场人气。12月8日，苹果旗 下的iPhone17Pro及iPhone17Pro Max两款机型在正式发布3个月后，在其多个官方主流电商旗舰店宣布降价300 元销售，改变了此前苹果新品发布后官方渠道鲜少迅速降价的传统。但降价时间仅持续短短一周时间，因此 也被看作该公司年末的一次应节促销行为。 记者在联想官网上看到，一些此前上市的旧款机器有较大优惠。其中，联想YOGA Book9AI元启13.3英寸双 屏电脑的售价比当初上市时的指导价低了9200元，降价幅度达到5.4折。联想最新款的Y9000P系列笔记本产 品在京东平台上的到手价也有100 ...

Core Insights - TrendForce forecasts a significant increase in memory prices by Q1 2026, leading to cost challenges for global end products, which will force smartphone and laptop industries to raise product prices and lower specifications, resulting in a downward revision of sales outlook [1] - The impact of memory on the bill of materials (BOM) for consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs is rapidly expanding, with Apple's iPhone series also expected to see a notable increase in BOM cost share, prompting a reassessment of new device pricing [1] - The rise in memory prices will lead laptop brands to adjust their product mix, procurement strategies, and regional sales layouts, particularly affecting high-end lightweight laptops that cannot easily change specifications due to design constraints [1] - The consumer laptop market, while sensitive to changes in specifications and pricing, currently benefits from existing inventory of finished products and low-cost memory, allowing for short-term price stability, but a price adjustment period is anticipated in the PC market by Q2 2026 [1] Industry Adjustments - "Specification reduction" or "postponing upgrades" has become a necessary strategy for smartphone and laptop brands to balance costs [2]

Core Insights - The latest survey by TrendForce indicates that significant price increases for memory chips are expected in Q1 2026, leading to cost challenges for global end products [1] - As a result, smartphone and laptop industries are likely to raise product prices and lower specifications, with sales outlooks being further downgraded [1] - Resource advantages are expected to concentrate among a few leading brands [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing fluctuations in the DRAM and NAND flash markets, with significant price increases observed in both sectors [2][4]. Group 2 - In the DRAM market, the price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s chips increased by 10.73% this week, rising from US$14.914 to US$16.514, indicating a sustained high price level without signs of decline [2]. Group 3 - The NAND flash market is experiencing a psychological drive due to expectations of extreme supply tightness, leading to multiple daily price adjustments. The price of 512Gb TLC wafers rose by 5.90% this week, reaching US$9.607 [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the memory market, particularly focusing on DRAM and NAND flash memory prices, which have seen significant increases due to supply constraints and market dynamics [2][4]. DRAM Market Summary - DRAM prices for DDR4 1Gx8 and DDR5 2Gx8 have risen significantly since early September, with DDR4 prices increasing by 15.8% and DDR5 prices soaring by 30.7%, leading to reduced transaction volumes as buyers struggle to keep up with rising costs [2][4]. - The current strong outlook for the DRAM market remains intact despite the declining transaction volumes [2]. NAND Market Summary - The NAND flash memory market is experiencing extreme supply tightness, causing spot prices to rise sharply, with daily fluctuations in pricing [4]. - The price of 512Gb TLC wafer in the spot market increased by 14.97%, reaching a price of US$7.421, driven by the inability of manufacturers to release additional capacity [4].

Economic Information - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with iron ore up 0.32%, coking coal down 3.19%, and coke down 2.39% [2] - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Automotive consumption was 4,255 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2] Company Alerts - Pingtan Development's stock price increased by 255% since October 17, significantly diverging from its fundamentals, leading to a suspension for investigation [5] - Haixia Innovation experienced three instances of abnormal stock price fluctuations on October 28, November 4, and November 17, resulting in a suspension for investigation [5] Overseas Alerts - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.18%, S&P 500 down 0.92%, and Nasdaq down 0.84%. The S&P 500 index fell below 6,700 points, ending a ten-week upward trend [4] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with AMD and Intel down over 2%, while Google saw a rise of over 3% [4] Stockholder Reduction Plans - Multiple companies announced stockholder reduction plans, including Guangge Technology, Baoli Food, and Meixin Yishen, with reductions ranging from 0.0151% to 3.99% of shares [7][8] - Significant stock unlocks are scheduled for November 18, including Yunzhongma and Meai Technology, with estimated amounts of 3.178 billion yuan and 4.037 billion yuan respectively [7] Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley reported that rising storage chip prices are expected to pressure OEM and ODM profits, leading to downgrades for several manufacturers, including Dell and HP [6] - TrendForce revised down its 2026 global smartphone and laptop production forecasts, predicting declines of 2% and 2.4% respectively due to inflation and rising component costs [6]

Core Insights - The price increase of various storage products is impacting the downstream consumer market, leading to a collective price hike for new mid-to-high-end smartphones in China, prompting institutions to revise down their global smartphone and laptop shipment forecasts for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - TrendForce has downgraded the global smartphone shipment forecast for 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2%, and the laptop shipment forecast from a growth of 1.7% to a decline of 2.4% [1] - The ongoing inflation and strong upward cycle of memory prices are expected to further pressure the production and shipment forecasts if supply-demand imbalances worsen [1] Group 2: Cost Structure and Pricing Impact - The combined cost of DRAM and NAND Flash is projected to increase the overall BOM cost of devices by approximately 5% to 7% in 2026, which will particularly affect low-end smartphone models [2][3] - The share of memory components in the BOM cost for laptops is expected to rise from about 10%-18% to over 20% due to significant price increases [2] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The anticipated increase in laptop prices by 5% to 15% in 2026 is likely to create substantial pressure on demand, with consumers potentially delaying upgrades or shifting to the second-hand market [3] - The mid-range market may experience a significant slowdown in upgrade momentum, as both enterprise and household users are inclined to extend the lifecycle of their devices [3] - The monitor market, while less directly impacted by memory price increases, may still face challenges if overall PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual monitor shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with inflation impacting consumer market performance and a strong upward cycle in memory prices leading to increased overall costs and potential price hikes for end products, which may further affect consumer demand [2]. Group 1: Smartphone Market - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones in 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2% due to rising memory costs [2]. - The price increase in DRAM is expected to raise the BOM cost of smartphones by approximately 8-10% in 2025, with overall BOM costs projected to increase by 5-7% in the following year [3]. - Smaller smartphone brands may struggle to secure resources due to tight memory supply, potentially leading to a market reshuffle favoring larger players [4]. Group 2: Laptop Market - The laptop market is anticipated to face dual pressures of cost and demand in 2026, with memory components expected to account for over 20% of the BOM cost due to significant price increases [5]. - If brands pass on costs to consumers, laptop prices may rise by 5-15%, which could dampen demand, particularly in the low-end market where price sensitivity is high [5]. - The mid-range market may see a slowdown in replacement cycles as both corporate and household users extend the lifespan of their devices [5]. Group 3: Monitor Market - The monitor market, which typically uses smaller capacity memory, is less directly impacted by price increases; however, it may suffer indirectly if PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [6]. Group 4: BOM Cost Analysis - For different market segments, the BOM cost increase from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 is projected at 12% for high-end and mid-range products, and 10% for low-end products, with DRAM and SSD components making up 23%, 21%, and 20% of the BOM cost respectively [8].