Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing pressure on real estate sales and service consumption demand, while durable goods exports are also facing challenges. The expectation of "anti-involution" policies continues to drive up the prices of cyclical resource products such as steel, float glass, coal, and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales continue to decline, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 23.1% year-on-year. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of 18.9%, 29.9%, and 14.0% respectively [2] - In durable goods, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 11.0% year-on-year, showing a slight uptick. However, air conditioning sales saw a divergence, with domestic sales up by 16.5% and exports down by 12.7% [2] - Service consumption is experiencing seasonal improvement, with the tourism consumption price index in Hainan up by 0.8% and movie box office revenue up by 35.0% week-on-week, although the year-on-year decline has widened [2] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Weak real estate demand continues to drag down construction activity, while expectations for "anti-involution" policies are strengthening in cyclical industries. Steel prices have rebounded, and float glass prices have increased, but cement prices remain under pressure [3] - Manufacturing activity shows a mixed performance, with the operating rate of automotive steel tires increasing, while the chemical industry shows varied results. The willingness of companies to hire has decreased month-on-month but remains significantly higher year-on-year [3] - Resource prices are rising due to increased electricity consumption driven by high summer temperatures and tightening supply expectations, with coal prices continuing to rise [3] Group 3: Passenger and Freight Logistics - Passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, but long-distance migration demand continues to grow, with the migration scale index up by 4.8% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year [4] - Freight logistics remain robust, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 0.7% and 1.1% month-on-month, respectively, and year-on-year increases of 2.0% and 6.8% [4] - Maritime transport rates are recovering, with domestic port cargo and container throughput increasing by 2.4% and 2.6% month-on-month, indicating improved export activity [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights an improvement in consumer sentiment and a rise in expectations for de-involution in cyclical industries, despite ongoing weakness in the real estate sector affecting construction demand [2][9] - The central financial committee's emphasis on addressing low-price disorderly competition is expected to tighten supply in cyclical industries, leading to a marginal increase in demand for rebar and power coal, resulting in price increases for steel, float glass, and thermal coal [2][9] - Summer consumer sentiment has shown signs of improvement, with notable increases in tourism, movie attendance, and passenger transport demand, alongside a significant rise in pig prices, indicating sustained strength in the passenger car market [2][9] Group 2 - In the downstream consumption sector, real estate sales continue to decline, with a 24.6% year-on-year drop in transaction volume across 30 major cities, while service consumption shows a marginal increase [10][14] - The automotive market remains robust, with June passenger car sales meeting expectations and a 3.9% increase in the inventory warning index for dealers, indicating slight upward pressure on inventory levels [10][16] - The report notes a significant rise in pig prices, improving profitability in the breeding sector, while staple grain prices remain stable [10][18] Group 3 - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the report indicates a divergence in manufacturing activity, with a notable decline in automotive production rates due to rising dealer inventory pressures, while chemical and petroleum asphalt production remains resilient [11][50] - The report emphasizes the cyclical industry's expectation of de-involution, with a rebound in steel prices and a continued decline in cement prices, reflecting weak construction demand [11][43] - The manufacturing sector's hiring intentions have increased, with a 53.3% year-on-year rise in new job postings, indicating a potential recovery in employment [50][53] Group 4 - In the upstream resources sector, the report notes a slight increase in thermal coal prices due to rising electricity consumption during the summer, while industrial metal prices remain under pressure amid declining expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [57][61] - The report highlights that copper and aluminum prices have experienced slight fluctuations, with copper prices facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and subdued demand [61][66] Group 5 - The logistics and passenger transport sectors have seen a significant increase in demand, with metro passenger volumes in major cities rising by 1.1% week-on-week and 2.5% year-on-year [12][68] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 6.1% week-on-week, recovering to 86.9% of 2019 levels, while international flights have also shown a recovery [12][68] - However, the report notes a decline in freight logistics, with highway and railway freight volumes decreasing by 2.4% and 3.2% respectively, indicating a mixed outlook for logistics performance [72][77]