美国财政部长贝森特已向国会预警，如果届时债务上限未得到提高或暂停，美国很可能在8月耗尽举 债能力。短期国债投资者闻风而动，8月到期的国债价格明显走低(其中8月21日到期的债券收益率已 达4.34%)。 不过，华尔街分析师和私人预测机构认为，债务上限的最后期限，即所谓的"X日"，将在8月下旬至10 月中旬之间的某个时间到来。 一旦美国丧失举债能力，持有即将到期国债的投资者将首当其冲——政府将无法发行新债筹集偿债资 金。 共和党目前除税改法案外尚无备选方案来提高债务上限。他们需要通过削减社会保障支出和增加边境 执法资金等立法内容，来说服从未投票支持过提高债务上限的极端保守派通过该法案。如果转向民主 党求援，共和党势必在支出增加等政策让步上付出代价。 点击蓝字，关注我们 随着美国参议院着手对特朗普总统提出的数万亿美元税改与支出计划进行冗长修订，美国财政偿付能 力正面临前所未有的严峻考验。 国会共和党领袖将提高债务上限的条款捆绑在这项标志性经济法案中。这一政治策略虽然加速了优先 立法的进程，但也使避免债务违约的命运完全取决于后续复杂的立法博弈。 该税改法案不仅在参议院面临漫长审议，共和党议员更明确表示将在通过前进行大 ...

Core Points - The U.S. faces increasing risks of debt default as the Senate prepares to undertake lengthy revisions to Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" [1] - The Republican leadership is tying the issue of raising the debt ceiling to the president's signature economic legislation, which adds urgency but complicates the legislative process [1] - The tax reform bill is expected to undergo extensive modifications in the Senate, raising concerns about potential new issues when the revised version returns to the House for approval [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - As the potential default date approaches, the dramatic and delayed legislative process may lead to market unease [2] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned lawmakers that the U.S. could exhaust its borrowing capacity by August if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended [2] - Investors in Treasury securities are already adjusting their positions, with yields on bonds maturing in August rising to 4.34% compared to other maturities [2] Group 2: Republican Challenges - The Republican Party lacks an alternative plan to raise the debt ceiling aside from Trump's proposal, needing to include cuts to social safety net spending and increased border enforcement funding to gain support from hardline conservatives [3] - Senate Republican leader John Thune indicated that achieving a majority vote for the tax bill before July 4 has become challenging due to the need for support [3] - Thune must navigate the delicate balance of modifying the House's $4 trillion tax cut proposal to secure Senate approval [3] Group 3: Bipartisan Resistance - Some senators oppose the rapid termination of clean energy tax credits in the House bill, arguing it would harm renewable energy companies and the banks supporting current projects [4] - The Senate is utilizing budgetary maneuvers that allow for $1.3 trillion more in tax cuts than the House bill, which may anger fiscal conservatives in the House [4] - Other senators are advocating for permanent tax cuts on tips and overtime, while also seeking to mitigate tax changes that could negatively impact state budgets [4] Group 4: Legislative Dynamics - Democrats have been largely sidelined in the Republican-only budget process but can leverage Senate rules to remove non-fiscal provisions from the bill [5] - The outcome of this legislative battle will directly impact whether the U.S. can avoid a historic debt default, necessitating close monitoring of political developments in the coming months [5]