Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is set to officially cancel the "Weekly Report" initiative, which was initiated by Elon Musk, aimed at requiring federal employees to summarize their weekly work achievements [1][2]. Group 1: Cancellation of the "Weekly Report" - The United States Office of Personnel Management announced the termination of the "Weekly Report" plan, which mandated federal employees to report five work accomplishments from the previous week [1]. - Scott Kupor, the head of the Office of Personnel Management, stated that there are many existing tools for managers to understand their team members' work, making the "Weekly Report" unnecessary [1][4]. Group 2: Background and Context - The cancellation reflects a shift in the Trump administration's approach following the fallout with Musk, who had previously been a close ally and had invested over $250 million to support Trump's election campaign [2]. - Musk's relationship with Trump soured after Musk criticized Trump's tax reform proposal, leading to threats from Trump to cancel federal contracts worth billions with Musk's companies [2]. Group 3: Implementation of the "Weekly Report" - The "Weekly Report" was introduced by Musk during his tenure as head of the so-called "Department of Government Efficiency," requiring federal employees to respond to an email listing their five work accomplishments or face being considered as having resigned [3].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's investment banking business unexpectedly grew by 7% in Q2, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 14% decline, indicating a potential recovery in the M&A market after a period of caution due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The bank's adjusted earnings per share reached $4.96, exceeding the analyst forecast of $4.48, driven by strong performance in investment banking and trading [1] - CEO Jamie Dimon noted that market activity, which started slowly at the beginning of the year, has accelerated as market sentiment improves [2] Group 2 - The bank's debt underwriting revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, and M&A advisory fees rose by 8%, while stock underwriting revenue fell by 6%, which was better than the expected 29% decline [5] - Fixed income business revenue reached $5.69 billion, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $5.22 billion, and equity trading revenue hit a record $3.25 billion for two consecutive quarters [5] - The bank raised its full-year net interest income forecast from $94.5 billion to $95.5 billion, despite slightly missing expectations for the quarterly net interest income [6]

Core Viewpoint - The tax reform bill and earnings outlook are expected to boost large-cap U.S. stocks [1] Group 1 - The tax reform is anticipated to enhance corporate profitability, leading to increased investor confidence in large-cap stocks [1] - Analysts predict that the earnings growth for S&P 500 companies will accelerate, driven by favorable tax policies [1] - The overall market sentiment is shifting positively as investors react to the potential benefits of the tax reform [1]

早在特朗普大力推动"大而美"法案的初期，就有人敏锐地看穿了其中的玄机。反对的声音中，马斯克无 疑是最为激烈的，他多次在社交平台上发文，强烈谴责这项法案，甚至因此与特朗普发生了两次公 开"骂战"。马斯克直言这项法案"令人作呕"，并特别提到："这一法案将把本已庞大的预算赤字推高至 2.5万亿美元，给美国公民带来沉重的债务负担。"他还警告道，如果法案通过，他将立刻发起创建"美 国党"。 尽管美国国内反对的声音此起彼伏，特朗普却似乎没有理会。他故作耳聋，继续推进自己的议程。7月1 日，参议院的投票结果是50：50，形成平局。作为副总统，万斯有权在这种情况下投出决定性的一票， 而他的关键一票也将特朗普的税改法案送上了最终的"神坛"。 这几天，华盛顿关于税改的法案在国会引发了巨大的波动，经过激烈的争斗，最终仅以4票的微弱优势 险些被通过。特朗普在看到最终结果时，松了口气，感到一丝解脱。然而，马斯克却彻底炸锅了，这使 得他们之间的"友谊小船"在顷刻间翻覆。令人更为好奇的是，72岁的老外交官崔天凯此时重返政坛，似 乎也暗示着中方准备迎接一场新的较量。 劫贫济富的游戏 几天后，众议院进行了最终投票。民主党为阻止法案的通过，除了 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月07日 美元债双周报（25 年第 27 周） 弱于大市 "大漂亮法案"通过将增加美国中长期财政压力 "大漂亮法案"通过并生效，美国财政压力或将进一步扩大。7 月 1 日，"大 漂亮法案"（OBBBA）以 51 比 50 的微弱优势通过参议院；7 月 3 日，美 国国会众议院对该法案进行最终表决投票，以 218 比 214 的结果通过； 7 月 4 日，美国总统特朗普签署该法案，"大漂亮法案"正式生效。该 法案实质为税改法案，核心条款是降低企业税，同时也包含削减社会福 利、取消清洁能源补贴、增加国债规模等内容。该法案"减税养债"， 一方面为特定行业大企业减税，鼓励研发、刺激经济；另一方面，为了 缓解财政压力，美国提高了国债规模，解决短期债务的同时也带来了更 加剧烈的长期问题。减税的大规模缩减导致赤字增长，但对经济增长的 贡献仍需商榷，美国财政压力或将进一步扩大。 6 月非农就业数据仍具韧性，但需关注结构问题。6 月非农就业人数增加 14.7 万人，远高于市场预期；6 月私营就业人数减少 3.3 万，是 2023 年 3 月以来的首次下降;失业率下降至 4.1%，低于预期；4 月 ...

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 星期一 （1）基本面 价格：7 月 4 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.59%，报 7340/吨，基差 290（+22 元/吨）； 成本：7 月 4 日布油主力合约收盘 67.0 桶（-0.5 桶），WTI 原油主力合 约收盘 68.8 桶（-0.3 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5880 元/吨（+20 元/ 吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 19.4 万吨（-0.6 万吨），环比去库 3.0%，江 苏港口库存 9.9 万吨（+1.4 万吨），环比累库 16.2%，苯乙烯整体偏累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置逐渐回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量 保持 36.7 万吨（+0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 80.0%（-0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.9（-3.84%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.0%（-1.0%），PS 产能利用率 52.4%（-5.0%），开工率整体 回落。 （2）观点 纯苯：当前纯苯市场呈现供需双增态势。供应端，石油苯开工率略有波动，而 加氢苯开工率则持续攀升至历史高位，主要 ...

Group 1 - Gold futures experienced a brief rise but faced resistance, currently trading around 770 CNY per gram, indicating a continuation of high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [3] - The government employment segment contributed significantly to the job growth, with 73,000 jobs added, which is substantially higher than the previous 7,000 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will permanently implement the 2017 tax reform policies and introduce new tax incentives, projected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The ongoing rise in national debt, which has exceeded $37 trillion, diminishes the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, thereby supporting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of the 90-day tariff suspension initiated by Trump is expected to heighten policy uncertainty, impacting market volatility and supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5] - Despite strong signals of economic resilience in the U.S., which may restore market risk appetite, gold prices are anticipated to remain in a high-level fluctuation range due to trade agreement uncertainties [5] - Technical analysis indicates a "triple top" formation for international gold prices, with a focus on U.S. inflation data, maintaining a trading range of 760-801 CNY per gram for the Shanghai gold futures [5]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party called "American Party" in response to the controversial "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump [1][2] - Musk's social media poll regarding the establishment of the "American Party" showed 65.4% support from over 1.24 million participants, indicating a desire for a new political alternative to the current two-party system [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax reform bill has faced significant criticism from Musk, who described it as "completely crazy and destructive," and warned of its potential negative impacts on healthcare and national debt [3] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to result in nearly 12 million people losing health insurance over the next decade and an increase in national debt by $3.3 trillion [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Silver, industrial silicon, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Alumina, zinc, tin, log, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, bond futures, gold, copper, nickel, stainless steel, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coking coal, coke, cotton, corn, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, styrene, PVC, VCM, shipping freight rates [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and there are few positive factors at home and abroad. The stock index faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space. The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price of gold, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price of gold. The macro and commodity attributes still support the price of silver, which may be strong in the short term [1]. - The unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The copper price may oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk. The aluminum price has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand. The price of alumina and zinc may be weak. The nickel price has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The stainless steel has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The price of tin has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - The industrial silicon is favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment. The polysilicon is expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment. The supply of lithium carbonate has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active. The rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore may oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. The price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions [1]. - The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, and the short-term view is bullish. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. The corn price may oscillate, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The soybean price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is currently undervalued with macro positives. The log price is weak. The live pig futures may be stable due to the weak impact of the current slaughter on the spot price [1]. - The crude oil and fuel oil may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States. The asphalt price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand. The BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term. The PTA price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales [1]. - The short fiber price may oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The styrene price may oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The PVC price may oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand. The VCM price may oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. The LPG price has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand and the narrow spread between industrial and civil use [2]. - The shipping freight rate on the European route is expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2]. Summary by Industry Segments Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern due to the shrinking trading volume and few positive factors at home and abroad. Follow-up attention should be paid to the guidance of macro incremental information on the direction of the stock index [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price [1]. - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes still support the price, which may be strong in the short term [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: May oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk and the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Aluminum**: Has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand [1]. - **Alumina**: The price may be weak due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Zinc**: Has a risk of decline due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States and the continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - **Nickel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. Short-term interval operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the improvement of demand [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Short-term operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material changes and the steel mill production schedule [1]. - **Tin**: Has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The upward space is suppressed by the production restriction of steel mills, but the high short-term demand provides support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The production decreases under the pressure of profit, and the demand weakens marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to the short-term increase in production, the weakening of demand, and the insufficient cost support [1]. - **Coking Coal**: May oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions. The short-term trading level cannot be falsified, so the short positions on the futures market can be temporarily avoided [1]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, the short-term view is bullish. Follow-up attention should be paid to the hearing on the 8th and the supply and demand reports from the producing areas [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of the US economic recession and the Sino-US tariff war [1]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. Follow-up attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil price on the sugar production ratio in Brazil's new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The short-term import of corn and the release of brown rice have impacted the market, but the impact is within the market expectation. The old crop of corn has a tightening supply and demand expectation, and the decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. The C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Soybeans**: May oscillate due to the strong US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US trade negotiations and the slight decline of the Brazilian premium. The domestic oil mills have a phenomenon of urging提货, and the basis is weak. Short-term attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Pulp**: The outer quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, the domestic demand is weak, and the current valuation is low, with macro positives [1]. - **Log**: The current season is the off-season, and the supply decreases limitedly even when the outer price rises. The view is weak [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant on the futures market, and the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. The short-term spot price is less affected by the slaughter, but the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: May oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Fuel，Oil**: Similar to crude oil, may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Asphalt**: The price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the limited support from the raw material end, the pressure on the synthetic rubber fundamentals, the high basis, and the follow-up of the butadiene price. Follow-up attention should be paid to the price adjustment of butadiene and the spot price of cis-polybutadiene rubber, as well as the de-stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the bottle chips and short fibers will enter the maintenance cycle in July [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales. The macro sentiment has improved, and the chemical industry has followed the downward trend of the crude oil price [1]. - **Short Fiber**: May oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The short fiber factory has a maintenance plan [2]. - **Styrene**: May oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The market speculative demand has weakened, and the pure benzene price has rebounded slightly [2]. - **PVC**: May oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand [2]. - **VCM**: May oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. Follow-up attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine [2]. - **LPG**: Has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand, the narrow spread between industrial and civil use, and the slow decline of the spot price [2]. Others - **Shipping Freight Rate on the European Route**: Expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2].

美国财长贝森特：预计众议院将于今天下午1:30左右就税改法案进行投票。 ...