Core Points - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, highlighting that tariffs have led to a significant increase in government revenue but also pose risks to household incomes and economic growth [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - As of August 31, the U.S. tariff revenue reached $165 billion, an increase of approximately $95 billion from the previous year [1]. - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that by 2025, tariffs will raise the price level by 1.7%, equating to an average household income loss of $2,300 [1][10]. - The effective average tariff rate for U.S. consumers is projected to be 17.4%, the highest since 1935, with the IEEPA tariffs being a significant component [3]. Group 2: Legal and Political Uncertainties - A recent federal appeals court ruling has raised questions about the legality of tariffs imposed under the IEEPA, with Treasury Secretary Yellen warning of potential refunds if the Supreme Court rules against the administration [1][7]. - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of the tariffs in November, which could have significant implications for the administration's trade policies [7]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth is expected to slow down, with forecasts for Q3 and Q4 annualized growth rates dropping to 1.2%-1.3% from over 3% in Q2 [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic policies is contributing to a tightening financial environment, which may hinder investment [8]. Group 4: Business Impact - Companies like hand2mind are experiencing increased costs due to tariffs, with one company reporting over $5.5 million in tariffs paid this year, compared to $2.3 million for the entire previous year [10]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to higher production costs and has forced some companies to relocate production to avoid increased tariffs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The extension of tariffs against China is seen as a reluctant move by the U.S., with Trump feeling compelled to sign the order despite his dissatisfaction with the situation [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Extension Context - Trump signed an executive order to extend tariffs until November 10, following China's announcement of a tariff truce [1]. - The joint statement from both sides confirmed the extension but lacked substantial agreements beyond this point [1][3]. - The extension of tariffs was anticipated, as ongoing trade issues between the U.S. and China have been exacerbated by Trump's "America First" policy [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The tariff extension reflects broader geopolitical factors, indicating that the U.S. does not wish to escalate tensions further, as it lacks the power to force China into submission [3]. - Trump's approach has shifted to a more subdued tone, indicating his frustration with the current state of negotiations [2][4]. - The U.S. has faced challenges in trade negotiations with China, leading to a precarious position in international discussions [5]. Group 3: Domestic Pressures - Domestic pressures are mounting on Trump, particularly due to recent controversies and disappointing employment data, which have raised questions about the effectiveness of tariffs [7]. - Despite some fiscal benefits from tariffs, the general public has not felt significant advantages, leading to scrutiny of Trump's performance [7]. - Trump has been advocating for interest rate cuts to alleviate pressure on small businesses affected by tariffs, but the Federal Reserve has shown reluctance to lower rates [7][8]. Group 4: Economic Strategy - Trump's tax reform has aimed to stimulate corporate growth and employment, but the uncertain market environment raises doubts about companies' willingness to expand [8]. - The continuation of the tariff truce is seen as a necessary compromise for the U.S. to maintain stability in negotiations, despite Trump's personal dissatisfaction with the situation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is set to officially cancel the "Weekly Report" initiative, which was initiated by Elon Musk, aimed at requiring federal employees to summarize their weekly work achievements [1][2]. Group 1: Cancellation of the "Weekly Report" - The United States Office of Personnel Management announced the termination of the "Weekly Report" plan, which mandated federal employees to report five work accomplishments from the previous week [1]. - Scott Kupor, the head of the Office of Personnel Management, stated that there are many existing tools for managers to understand their team members' work, making the "Weekly Report" unnecessary [1][4]. Group 2: Background and Context - The cancellation reflects a shift in the Trump administration's approach following the fallout with Musk, who had previously been a close ally and had invested over $250 million to support Trump's election campaign [2]. - Musk's relationship with Trump soured after Musk criticized Trump's tax reform proposal, leading to threats from Trump to cancel federal contracts worth billions with Musk's companies [2]. Group 3: Implementation of the "Weekly Report" - The "Weekly Report" was introduced by Musk during his tenure as head of the so-called "Department of Government Efficiency," requiring federal employees to respond to an email listing their five work accomplishments or face being considered as having resigned [3].

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has expressed reduced concerns regarding the impact of "Trump tariffs," stating that the tariffs are now more moderate and cautious, potentially benefiting some companies' exports and encouraging manufacturing to return to the U.S. [1] - In a previous memo to shareholders, Dimon highlighted that recent tariffs could raise inflation and increase perceptions of a potential economic recession, indicating that the short-term effects of tariffs could slow economic growth [1] - Dimon noted that while tariffs might push inflation, the priority should be on achieving more economic growth, emphasizing that the tariffs have significantly softened [2] Group 2 - Dimon praised Trump's trade efforts, which have resulted in a baseline tariff rate of only 15% for most trade agreements, suggesting that this rate is acceptable and may only apply to a portion of imports [2] - He mentioned that the U.S. imports approximately $4 trillion worth of goods, and with an average tariff of 7% to 8%, this could translate to an annual impact of around $300 billion on a $30 trillion economy [2] - Dimon also highlighted the positive aspects of the recently passed "Big and Beautiful" tax reform, stating that it has created a stable and internationally competitive tax environment, which is crucial for the welfare of the American people, especially low-income groups [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's investment banking business unexpectedly grew by 7% in Q2, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 14% decline, indicating a potential recovery in the M&A market after a period of caution due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The bank's adjusted earnings per share reached $4.96, exceeding the analyst forecast of $4.48, driven by strong performance in investment banking and trading [1] - CEO Jamie Dimon noted that market activity, which started slowly at the beginning of the year, has accelerated as market sentiment improves [2] Group 2 - The bank's debt underwriting revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, and M&A advisory fees rose by 8%, while stock underwriting revenue fell by 6%, which was better than the expected 29% decline [5] - Fixed income business revenue reached $5.69 billion, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $5.22 billion, and equity trading revenue hit a record $3.25 billion for two consecutive quarters [5] - The bank raised its full-year net interest income forecast from $94.5 billion to $95.5 billion, despite slightly missing expectations for the quarterly net interest income [6]

Core Viewpoint - The tax reform bill and earnings outlook are expected to boost large-cap U.S. stocks [1] Group 1 - The tax reform is anticipated to enhance corporate profitability, leading to increased investor confidence in large-cap stocks [1] - Analysts predict that the earnings growth for S&P 500 companies will accelerate, driven by favorable tax policies [1] - The overall market sentiment is shifting positively as investors react to the potential benefits of the tax reform [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax reform bill in Washington has sparked significant controversy, passing with a narrow margin of just four votes, leading to tensions between Trump and Musk, and indicating a potential new phase in U.S.-China relations with the return of diplomat Cui Tiankai [1][5][15]. Tax Reform Bill Details - The tax reform bill, described as benefiting the wealthy at the expense of the poor, is projected to increase the national budget deficit by $2.5 trillion [5][12]. - The bill includes a permanent reduction of corporate tax to 21% and provides over $1 trillion in tax cuts for the top 1% of earners, with the top 0.1% receiving nearly half of the tax benefits [12][13]. - The poorest families are expected to face a 4% increase in tax burden, while the government will cut $1.2 trillion in social spending, affecting healthcare and food assistance for millions [12][13]. Public Reaction and Political Implications - Musk's strong opposition to the bill culminated in his announcement of forming a new political party, reflecting widespread discontent, as over 80% of voters supported the idea of a new party representing centrist interests [10][8]. - The passage of the bill has raised concerns about increasing national debt by $3.3 trillion, with interest payments being shouldered by the general public while the wealthy benefit from capital gains tax advantages [13][20]. China's Response - Following the bill's passage, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce quickly stated it would take necessary measures to protect Chinese interests, indicating a proactive stance in international relations [15]. - Cui Tiankai's return to the political arena symbolizes China's strategic response to the evolving geopolitical landscape, emphasizing a commitment to avoid hegemonic competition while seeking win-win outcomes [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" and maintained [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] 2. Core Views - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the US medium - and long - term fiscal pressure. The act, a tax reform bill, includes reducing corporate taxes, cutting social welfare, canceling clean energy subsidies, and increasing the national debt scale. It may further expand the US fiscal pressure [1] - The June non - farm payroll data shows resilience, but structural issues need attention. The labor market remains resilient overall, but the increase in government employment is unsustainable, and the resilience of the non - farm data is still to be observed, with a risk of weakening in the future [2] - The derivatives market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts in September and December. The strong non - farm payroll data has increased the possibility of the Fed continuing to wait and see and reduced the probability of an interest rate cut this month [2] - The US Treasury bond interest rate first decreased and then increased, and the term spread narrowed slightly. It is recommended that investors mainly allocate short - and medium - term US Treasury bonds, preferably 2 - 5 - year varieties, and be cautious about allocating long - duration bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Bond Benchmark Interest Rate - The US Treasury bond interest rate curve first decreased and then increased in the past two weeks. The 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bond interest rates changed by - 3/-6/-5/-4/-3/-2/-2bp respectively. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.35% and 3.88% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed slightly to 47bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding market expectations. Private employment decreased by 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, lower than expected. The non - farm data for April and May was revised up by 16,000 [2] - The derivatives market expects two interest rate cuts in September and December. The probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged in July is 95%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5%, the probability of a cut in September is 73%, and the probability of a total 50 - bp cut by December is 90% [2] 3.3 Exchange Rate - No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only chart information about non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, etc. 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US Treasury bond yield increased in the past week, mainly affected by the strong June non - farm payroll data. The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" is expected to add $3.4 trillion in deficits to the US in the next decade, which may put upward pressure on the medium - and long - term US Treasury bond yields [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade, 3 initial ratings, and 1 rating withdrawal [93] 3.6 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, there were 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers by three major international rating agencies. For example, on July 6, 2025, Fitch gave an initial rating of BBB - to Minsheng Commercial Bank International Holdings Co., Ltd.; on June 26, 2025, Fitch downgraded Longfor Group Holdings Limited from BB to BB - [93][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the mismatch in the production schedules of new upstream and downstream capacities [3]. - The styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. With the 3S entering the traditional off - season and the decline in downstream开工率, styrene has entered a inventory accumulation channel. Attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On July 4, the main styrene contract closed up 0.59% at 7340 yuan/ton, with a basis of 290 (+22 yuan/ton). The main Brent crude oil contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 68.8 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5880 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% decrease in inventory compared to the previous period. Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% increase in inventory compared to the previous period, and overall styrene inventory tended to accumulate [2]. - Styrene maintenance devices gradually returned, and overall supply remained stable. Currently, the weekly styrene output remained at 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 80.0% (-0.1%) [2]. - The capacity utilization rates of the three major downstream products (3S) of styrene changed differently. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 55.9 (-3.84%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.0% (-1.0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 52.4% (-5.0%), with the overall开工 rate declining [2]. 3.1.2. Views - **Pure Benzene**: The current pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has fluctuations in the petroleum benzene开工率, while the hydrogenated benzene开工率 has climbed to a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the maintenance season in the second quarter. This week, the East China port inventory accumulated, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next Monday. The news of the possible early commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene unit has widened the price difference between pure benzene and styrene. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand [3]. - **Styrene**: The current styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. Although the overall industry开工率 remains stable, the weekly output has reached a historical high. The开工 rates of the three major downstream products (PS, ABS, EPS) have all declined. The 3S has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic. The East China port inventory has significantly accumulated, and styrene has entered an inventory accumulation channel. However, due to the continuous stockpiling behavior of industrial giants, the basis of the July contract has not returned to the normal level, and attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On July 4, the main styrene futures contract price increased by 0.59% to 7340 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7904 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 8.21% to 290 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 0.34% to 5880 yuan/ton [6]. - The prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB), the United States (FOB), and China (CFR) all had small fluctuations, with increases of 0.42%, 0.00%, and 0.14% respectively. The price difference between domestic and imported pure benzene and the price difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene also changed [6]. - The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased, with decreases of 0.67%, 0.45%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From June 27 to July 4, the styrene output in China remained at 36.7 million tons, and the pure benzene output remained at 43.3 million tons [7]. - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. 3.2.3.开工Rate Situation - Among the pure benzene downstream products, the styrene capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.05% to 80.0%, the caprolactam capacity utilization rate increased by 6.41% to 95.7%, the phenol capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.46% to 78.5%, and the aniline capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.10% to 69.2% [8]. - Among the styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.84% to 55.9%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.96% to 65.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits that it may be difficult to complete all negotiations [9]. - Trump may lead a delegation to visit China. US officials are formulating a plan for Trump to lead dozens of CEOs to visit China later this year, similar to his Middle East trip in May, which facilitated transactions worth over 2 trillion dollars [9]. - Republican senators promoted the passage of a "great and beautiful" bill. The US Senate advanced Trump's tax reform bill with a narrow 51 - 49 vote in a key procedural vote [9]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][16][17][28]

Group 1 - Gold futures experienced a brief rise but faced resistance, currently trading around 770 CNY per gram, indicating a continuation of high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [3] - The government employment segment contributed significantly to the job growth, with 73,000 jobs added, which is substantially higher than the previous 7,000 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will permanently implement the 2017 tax reform policies and introduce new tax incentives, projected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The ongoing rise in national debt, which has exceeded $37 trillion, diminishes the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, thereby supporting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of the 90-day tariff suspension initiated by Trump is expected to heighten policy uncertainty, impacting market volatility and supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5] - Despite strong signals of economic resilience in the U.S., which may restore market risk appetite, gold prices are anticipated to remain in a high-level fluctuation range due to trade agreement uncertainties [5] - Technical analysis indicates a "triple top" formation for international gold prices, with a focus on U.S. inflation data, maintaining a trading range of 760-801 CNY per gram for the Shanghai gold futures [5]