美国第三季度各项经济数据显示，美国经济强烈复苏。GDP增长4.3%，显著高于市场预期的3.3%和第二季度的3.8%，创下自2023年以来的最快季度增速。 与此同时，核心PCE物价指数，上涨2.9%，符合市场预期，但较第二季度的2.6%有所上升，持续高于美联储2%的长期目标；整体PCE物价指数：上涨 2.8%，高于第二季度的2.1%。 为什么专家预测的美国高关税未引发通胀飙升？大致有以下几方面因素： 12月23日，川普发帖讽刺说，彭博社61位经济学家中有60位预测失误，但"川普"和其他一些天才预测对了。成功归功于良好的政府和关税政策。消费支出强 劲，净出口大幅增长，进口和贸易逆差大幅下降，而且没有通货膨胀！由于我的税改法案（一项伟大的法案）和关税政策，投资正在创下纪录。川普的经济 黄金时代正在全速前进——"好戏还在后头！" 看来，川普不仅应该获得诺贝尔和平奖，而且应该获得经济学奖。 美国2025年第三季度GDP年化增长4.3%，主要得益于消费支出、出口和政府支出的强劲表现。 占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出增长3.5%，显著高于第二季度的2.5%，拉动当季经济增长2.39个百分点。服务消费中，医疗保健和国际 ...

格隆汇12月23日｜美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文称：第三季度GDP增速达4.3%，远超预期的 3.2%。61位彭博经济学家中有60位预测错误，但"特朗普"和其他一些天才却准确预判。这一成功归功于 良好的政府治理和关税政策。消费者支出强劲，净出口大幅上升，进口和贸易逆差显著下降，且毫无通 胀压力！由于我的税改法案以及关税措施，投资正创下历史新高。特朗普经济黄金时代正全速推进，好 戏还在后头！ ...

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, highlighting that tariffs have led to a significant increase in government revenue but also pose risks to household incomes and economic growth [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - As of August 31, the U.S. tariff revenue reached $165 billion, an increase of approximately $95 billion from the previous year [1]. - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that by 2025, tariffs will raise the price level by 1.7%, equating to an average household income loss of $2,300 [1][10]. - The effective average tariff rate for U.S. consumers is projected to be 17.4%, the highest since 1935, with the IEEPA tariffs being a significant component [3]. Group 2: Legal and Political Uncertainties - A recent federal appeals court ruling has raised questions about the legality of tariffs imposed under the IEEPA, with Treasury Secretary Yellen warning of potential refunds if the Supreme Court rules against the administration [1][7]. - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of the tariffs in November, which could have significant implications for the administration's trade policies [7]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth is expected to slow down, with forecasts for Q3 and Q4 annualized growth rates dropping to 1.2%-1.3% from over 3% in Q2 [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic policies is contributing to a tightening financial environment, which may hinder investment [8]. Group 4: Business Impact - Companies like hand2mind are experiencing increased costs due to tariffs, with one company reporting over $5.5 million in tariffs paid this year, compared to $2.3 million for the entire previous year [10]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to higher production costs and has forced some companies to relocate production to avoid increased tariffs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The extension of tariffs against China is seen as a reluctant move by the U.S., with Trump feeling compelled to sign the order despite his dissatisfaction with the situation [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Extension Context - Trump signed an executive order to extend tariffs until November 10, following China's announcement of a tariff truce [1]. - The joint statement from both sides confirmed the extension but lacked substantial agreements beyond this point [1][3]. - The extension of tariffs was anticipated, as ongoing trade issues between the U.S. and China have been exacerbated by Trump's "America First" policy [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The tariff extension reflects broader geopolitical factors, indicating that the U.S. does not wish to escalate tensions further, as it lacks the power to force China into submission [3]. - Trump's approach has shifted to a more subdued tone, indicating his frustration with the current state of negotiations [2][4]. - The U.S. has faced challenges in trade negotiations with China, leading to a precarious position in international discussions [5]. Group 3: Domestic Pressures - Domestic pressures are mounting on Trump, particularly due to recent controversies and disappointing employment data, which have raised questions about the effectiveness of tariffs [7]. - Despite some fiscal benefits from tariffs, the general public has not felt significant advantages, leading to scrutiny of Trump's performance [7]. - Trump has been advocating for interest rate cuts to alleviate pressure on small businesses affected by tariffs, but the Federal Reserve has shown reluctance to lower rates [7][8]. Group 4: Economic Strategy - Trump's tax reform has aimed to stimulate corporate growth and employment, but the uncertain market environment raises doubts about companies' willingness to expand [8]. - The continuation of the tariff truce is seen as a necessary compromise for the U.S. to maintain stability in negotiations, despite Trump's personal dissatisfaction with the situation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is set to officially cancel the "Weekly Report" initiative, which was initiated by Elon Musk, aimed at requiring federal employees to summarize their weekly work achievements [1][2]. Group 1: Cancellation of the "Weekly Report" - The United States Office of Personnel Management announced the termination of the "Weekly Report" plan, which mandated federal employees to report five work accomplishments from the previous week [1]. - Scott Kupor, the head of the Office of Personnel Management, stated that there are many existing tools for managers to understand their team members' work, making the "Weekly Report" unnecessary [1][4]. Group 2: Background and Context - The cancellation reflects a shift in the Trump administration's approach following the fallout with Musk, who had previously been a close ally and had invested over $250 million to support Trump's election campaign [2]. - Musk's relationship with Trump soured after Musk criticized Trump's tax reform proposal, leading to threats from Trump to cancel federal contracts worth billions with Musk's companies [2]. Group 3: Implementation of the "Weekly Report" - The "Weekly Report" was introduced by Musk during his tenure as head of the so-called "Department of Government Efficiency," requiring federal employees to respond to an email listing their five work accomplishments or face being considered as having resigned [3].

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has expressed reduced concerns regarding the impact of "Trump tariffs," stating that the tariffs are now more moderate and cautious, potentially benefiting some companies' exports and encouraging manufacturing to return to the U.S. [1] - In a previous memo to shareholders, Dimon highlighted that recent tariffs could raise inflation and increase perceptions of a potential economic recession, indicating that the short-term effects of tariffs could slow economic growth [1] - Dimon noted that while tariffs might push inflation, the priority should be on achieving more economic growth, emphasizing that the tariffs have significantly softened [2] Group 2 - Dimon praised Trump's trade efforts, which have resulted in a baseline tariff rate of only 15% for most trade agreements, suggesting that this rate is acceptable and may only apply to a portion of imports [2] - He mentioned that the U.S. imports approximately $4 trillion worth of goods, and with an average tariff of 7% to 8%, this could translate to an annual impact of around $300 billion on a $30 trillion economy [2] - Dimon also highlighted the positive aspects of the recently passed "Big and Beautiful" tax reform, stating that it has created a stable and internationally competitive tax environment, which is crucial for the welfare of the American people, especially low-income groups [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's investment banking business unexpectedly grew by 7% in Q2, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 14% decline, indicating a potential recovery in the M&A market after a period of caution due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The bank's adjusted earnings per share reached $4.96, exceeding the analyst forecast of $4.48, driven by strong performance in investment banking and trading [1] - CEO Jamie Dimon noted that market activity, which started slowly at the beginning of the year, has accelerated as market sentiment improves [2] Group 2 - The bank's debt underwriting revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, and M&A advisory fees rose by 8%, while stock underwriting revenue fell by 6%, which was better than the expected 29% decline [5] - Fixed income business revenue reached $5.69 billion, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $5.22 billion, and equity trading revenue hit a record $3.25 billion for two consecutive quarters [5] - The bank raised its full-year net interest income forecast from $94.5 billion to $95.5 billion, despite slightly missing expectations for the quarterly net interest income [6]

Core Viewpoint - The tax reform bill and earnings outlook are expected to boost large-cap U.S. stocks [1] Group 1 - The tax reform is anticipated to enhance corporate profitability, leading to increased investor confidence in large-cap stocks [1] - Analysts predict that the earnings growth for S&P 500 companies will accelerate, driven by favorable tax policies [1] - The overall market sentiment is shifting positively as investors react to the potential benefits of the tax reform [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax reform bill in Washington has sparked significant controversy, passing with a narrow margin of just four votes, leading to tensions between Trump and Musk, and indicating a potential new phase in U.S.-China relations with the return of diplomat Cui Tiankai [1][5][15]. Tax Reform Bill Details - The tax reform bill, described as benefiting the wealthy at the expense of the poor, is projected to increase the national budget deficit by $2.5 trillion [5][12]. - The bill includes a permanent reduction of corporate tax to 21% and provides over $1 trillion in tax cuts for the top 1% of earners, with the top 0.1% receiving nearly half of the tax benefits [12][13]. - The poorest families are expected to face a 4% increase in tax burden, while the government will cut $1.2 trillion in social spending, affecting healthcare and food assistance for millions [12][13]. Public Reaction and Political Implications - Musk's strong opposition to the bill culminated in his announcement of forming a new political party, reflecting widespread discontent, as over 80% of voters supported the idea of a new party representing centrist interests [10][8]. - The passage of the bill has raised concerns about increasing national debt by $3.3 trillion, with interest payments being shouldered by the general public while the wealthy benefit from capital gains tax advantages [13][20]. China's Response - Following the bill's passage, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce quickly stated it would take necessary measures to protect Chinese interests, indicating a proactive stance in international relations [15]. - Cui Tiankai's return to the political arena symbolizes China's strategic response to the evolving geopolitical landscape, emphasizing a commitment to avoid hegemonic competition while seeking win-win outcomes [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" and maintained [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] 2. Core Views - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the US medium - and long - term fiscal pressure. The act, a tax reform bill, includes reducing corporate taxes, cutting social welfare, canceling clean energy subsidies, and increasing the national debt scale. It may further expand the US fiscal pressure [1] - The June non - farm payroll data shows resilience, but structural issues need attention. The labor market remains resilient overall, but the increase in government employment is unsustainable, and the resilience of the non - farm data is still to be observed, with a risk of weakening in the future [2] - The derivatives market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts in September and December. The strong non - farm payroll data has increased the possibility of the Fed continuing to wait and see and reduced the probability of an interest rate cut this month [2] - The US Treasury bond interest rate first decreased and then increased, and the term spread narrowed slightly. It is recommended that investors mainly allocate short - and medium - term US Treasury bonds, preferably 2 - 5 - year varieties, and be cautious about allocating long - duration bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Bond Benchmark Interest Rate - The US Treasury bond interest rate curve first decreased and then increased in the past two weeks. The 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bond interest rates changed by - 3/-6/-5/-4/-3/-2/-2bp respectively. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.35% and 3.88% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed slightly to 47bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding market expectations. Private employment decreased by 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, lower than expected. The non - farm data for April and May was revised up by 16,000 [2] - The derivatives market expects two interest rate cuts in September and December. The probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged in July is 95%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5%, the probability of a cut in September is 73%, and the probability of a total 50 - bp cut by December is 90% [2] 3.3 Exchange Rate - No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only chart information about non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, etc. 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US Treasury bond yield increased in the past week, mainly affected by the strong June non - farm payroll data. The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" is expected to add $3.4 trillion in deficits to the US in the next decade, which may put upward pressure on the medium - and long - term US Treasury bond yields [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade, 3 initial ratings, and 1 rating withdrawal [93] 3.6 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, there were 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers by three major international rating agencies. For example, on July 6, 2025, Fitch gave an initial rating of BBB - to Minsheng Commercial Bank International Holdings Co., Ltd.; on June 26, 2025, Fitch downgraded Longfor Group Holdings Limited from BB to BB - [93][94]