2025 年 08 月 18 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 沪指突破前高，科技延续强势 公募基金权益指数跟踪周报（2025.08.11-2025.08.15） 分析师：王骅 投资要点 分析师登记编码：S0890522090001 电话：021-20321067 邮箱：wanghua@cnhbstock.com 分析师：宋逸菲 分析师登记编码：S0890524080003 电话：021-20321087 邮箱：songyifei@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 2025/8/18》2025-08-18 2、《短暂调整，海内外权益重回强势 表现—公募基金量化遴选类策略指数 跟踪周报（2025.08.10）》2025-08- 12 公 募 基 金 泛 固 收 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.08.04-2025.08.08 ）》 2025- 08-11 4、《两融余额创新高，市场高风偏运 行 — 公 募 基 金 权 益 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.08.04-2025.08.08 ）》 2025- 08-11 5 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) experienced a 3.04% increase in value on August 13, with a trading volume of 86.75 million yuan, indicating strong market interest and performance [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund's latest net asset value is calculated at 750 million yuan [1] - Since its inception on January 26, 2022, the fund has achieved a return of 8.12% [1] - Over the past month, the fund has recorded a return of 8.14% [1] Group 2: Fund Activity - The fund's shares increased by 4 million, bringing the total shares to 694 million [1] - In the last 20 trading days, the fund's shares have increased by 10.7 million [1] Group 3: Management and Benchmark - The fund is managed by China Merchants Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Liu Chongjie as the fund manager [1] - The performance benchmark for the fund is the China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index return (adjusted for exchange rates) [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market continued its strong performance with mixed trends among the three major indices on August 5, 2023, with a net inflow of 1.357 billion yuan into stock ETFs [1][2] - As of August 5, the total scale of 1,166 stock ETFs in the market reached 3.80 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.031 billion shares on that day [2] - The top sectors for net inflow included Hong Kong pharmaceuticals (1.28 billion yuan), Hong Kong internet (730 million yuan), and Hong Kong technology (710 million yuan) [2][3] Group 2 - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 23.426 billion HKD on August 5, setting a record for single-day net inflow since April 10 [2] - The head fund companies saw significant net inflows, with E Fund's ETF reaching a latest scale of 680.83 billion yuan, increasing by 5.28 billion yuan [3] - Despite the overall net inflow in stock ETFs, broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 3.624 billion yuan, with the Shanghai 50 index leading the outflow at 1.364 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - The current A-share market is not considered overheated, with trading activity indicators showing that the turnover rate is at a historical medium level [4] - The market is viewed positively for medium to long-term investment opportunities, with expectations of improved liquidity and profit forecasts [4]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices experienced fluctuations and declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.24%. However, several Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector ETFs saw gains, including the TCM 50 ETF (562390.SH) up by 2.36%, the TCM ETF (560080.SH) up by 1.89%, and the Huatai-PB TCM ETF (561510.SH) up by 1.75% [1] - The defense and military industry ETFs saw declines, with the Aerospace ETF (159227.SZ) down by 2.31%, the Defense ETF (512670.SH) down by 1.94%, and the Aerospace and Aviation ETF (159208.SZ) down by 1.85% [1] - According to a report from CITIC Securities, TCM companies have been increasing their R&D investments in recent years, and stable cash flow will support future R&D expenditures. The innovation in TCM is expected to contribute to steady growth, while innovative chemical and biological drugs may provide additional valuation flexibility [1] New ETF Launches - A batch of new ETFs is set to be launched, with six ETFs announcing their trading listings on July 29, followed by three more on July 30. The ETF market is expected to expand significantly, with over 10 ETFs currently in the issuance process [2] - The new ETFs cover a range of indices, including the CSI 500, ChiNext 50, and various thematic indices related to artificial intelligence and technology sectors [2] - Personal investors are increasingly prominent among the top holders of newly issued ETFs, with individual investors holding 93.57% of the shares in the Yifangda National General Aviation Industry ETF as of July 28. This trend indicates a high level of activity and consensus among personal investors, nearing the peak levels seen since the fourth quarter of last year [2][3] Market Performance Overview - On August 1, the three major indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index at 2322.63 points. The highest intraday points were 3581.75, 11068.31, and 2348.02, respectively [4] - In terms of sector performance, the Environmental Protection, Media, and Light Industry sectors ranked highest with daily gains of 0.88%, 0.82%, and 0.65%, while the Oil and Petrochemical, Defense and Military, and Steel sectors ranked lowest with declines of 1.79%, 1.47%, and 1.26% [6] ETF Market Performance - The bond ETFs performed the best today, with an average daily change of 0.01%, while cross-border ETFs had the worst performance with an average daily change of -0.69% [9] - The top-performing ETFs today included the Photovoltaic ETF Leader (560980.SH) with a gain of 2.53%, the TCM 50 ETF (562390.SH) with a gain of 2.36%, and the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864.SZ) with a gain of 1.94% [11][12] - The trading volume for the top three stock ETFs was led by the A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with a trading volume of 4.183 billion, followed closely by the A500 ETF Southern (159352.SZ) with 4.166 billion, and the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 4.070 billion [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant inflow of capital into the Hong Kong technology sector, driven by mainland investors seeking opportunities in undervalued assets [4][6][11]. - The southbound capital has net bought approximately 840 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks in just seven months of 2025, surpassing the total for the entire previous year and setting a historical record since the launch of the Stock Connect [4][6]. - The Hong Kong Technology Index is noted for its broader coverage of sectors, including electric vehicles and innovative pharmaceuticals, which may provide better performance potential compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index [7][9]. Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) has seen significant capital inflows, with 150.7 million HKD net bought yesterday and an additional 36 million HKD today, indicating strong investor interest in low-cost entry points [1][10]. - The performance of the Hong Kong Technology Index has outpaced the Hang Seng Technology Index over various time frames, with returns of 30.94%, 57.40%, and 95.02% over the past year, two years, and ten years, respectively [9][11]. - The article suggests that the Hong Kong Technology sector is becoming an important outlet for mainland funds seeking allocation opportunities, especially given its relatively low valuations and potential for earnings recovery [6][12].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant growth in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 23.76%, outperforming major global indices such as Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE 100 [6][13][16] - The influx of southbound capital has been substantial, with a cumulative net purchase of 731.19 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96.86% [6][10][11] - The primary drivers of the index's rise are the valuation recoveries in innovative pharmaceuticals and AI technologies, indicating a structural market rather than a broad-based rally [13][20] Group 2 - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by stable earnings from leading companies and the potential for upward revisions in profitability as AI technologies become commercialized [14][20][22] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of the Hang Seng Technology Index stands at 20.84, which is relatively low compared to historical averages, suggesting room for growth [20][21] - The report highlights the increasing R&D expenditure in China, projected to reach 3.61 trillion CNY in 2024, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the technology sector [22][23] Group 3 - Mainland investors can participate in Hong Kong's technology sector through various passive investment vehicles, including QDII funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect funds, mutual recognition funds, and interconnectivity funds [26][27] - The majority of passive products tracking Hong Kong technology indices are linked to the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has the largest number of products and the highest total assets under management [28][30] - As of mid-2025, there are 33 QDII funds tracking technology-related indices with a total scale of 116.47 billion CNY, and 37 Hong Kong Stock Connect funds with a total scale of 106.96 billion CNY [27][28] Group 4 - The report compares various Hong Kong technology indices, noting that the Hang Seng Technology Index and the China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index do not have connectivity restrictions, allowing for a broader selection of stocks [33][36] - The Hang Seng Port Connect Technology Theme Index focuses more on traditional TMT sectors, indicating a higher concentration in specific industries compared to other indices [36][38] - The top ten constituents of the Hong Kong technology indices include major players like Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and Kuaishou, reflecting a high concentration of significant technology firms [38][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index, which has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 35.11% [1] - The index consists of 50 large-cap technology companies listed in Hong Kong, selected based on their market capitalization, R&D investment, and revenue growth [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Xiaomi Group-W (10.24%), Tencent Holdings (9.72%), Alibaba-W (9.62%), Meituan-W (8.32%), BYD Company (7.9%), NetEase-S (6.81%), JD Group-SW (6.59%), Baidu Group-SW (3.98%), SMIC (3.72%), and Kuaishou-W (3.49%) [1] Group 2 - The sector distribution of the index's holdings shows that consumer discretionary accounts for 41.28%, communication services for 26.09%, information technology for 21.39%, healthcare for 10.79%, and industrials for 0.45% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Public funds tracking the Hong Kong technology sector include the Southern China Securities Hong Kong Technology ETF and the China Merchants Securities Hong Kong Technology ETF [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE), which has remained above 3500 points for eight consecutive trading days, and explores the potential for further growth towards 3600 points. It highlights historical trends following similar breakthroughs and identifies key driving factors for the current market momentum [1][3]. Historical Performance - Over the past 20 years, there have been four significant instances where the SSE broke through 3500 points, with three of those instances showing positive subsequent performance. The current situation, with the SSE above 3500 points, warrants attention for potential future gains [3][4]. Key Driving Factors - **Anti-Competition Measures**: The recent "anti-involution" theme has gained traction, particularly benefiting sectors like solar energy and steel. A recent meeting emphasized the need for a unified national market and the importance of improving product quality, which may enhance profitability and industry structure in the A-share market [7]. - **Economic Resilience**: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year. This growth is attributed to effective macroeconomic policies and a strong contribution from final consumption, which accounted for 52% of economic growth [8]. - **Transaction Recovery**: Since the "924" market rally in 2024, the daily trading volume of the entire A-share market has consistently remained above 1 trillion yuan, with recent figures reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan. This increase in trading volume indicates a recovery in market activity and investor sentiment [9]. Investment Opportunities - **Artificial Intelligence Sector and Hong Kong Tech Stocks**: The government is focusing on enhancing the quality of development and promoting AI applications in key industries. The recent approval for an AI chip to enter the Chinese market may alleviate supply shortages, benefiting both upstream computing power companies and downstream AI application firms [12]. - **Military Industry**: Anticipation surrounding upcoming military events is expected to positively impact the defense sector, with historical trends indicating strong performance in the months leading up to such events [13]. - **CSI A500 Index**: For investors looking for diversified exposure to the A-share market, the CSI A500 Index, which includes 500 representative stocks across various sectors, offers a balanced approach to capturing growth while mitigating individual stock risks [14].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a nearly four-month high before closing slightly down [1][3] - The technology sector, particularly innovative drugs and internet leaders, showed strong performance, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) initially rising by 2.7% before closing up 0.72% [1][3] - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from favorable domestic policies and a surge in global market demand, with expectations for significant growth in 2025 as companies transition from generic to innovative drugs [3][4] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (520880) has shown a strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 58.95% [5] - The ETF focuses on the innovative drug industry, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for 75.85% of its weight, indicating a significant concentration in leading companies [4] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has a strong liquidity profile, with an average daily trading volume of 594 million yuan, supporting T+0 trading without QDII quota restrictions [9] Group 3 - The recent U.S. economic data, showing a 0.2% increase in the core CPI for June, has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit the Hong Kong market [3][4] - The ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations are perceived positively, with expectations of upcoming talks, which may further support market sentiment [4] - The overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low historically, enhancing the risk-return profile for foreign investments in Chinese technology assets [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong technology sector is currently experiencing a favorable allocation opportunity driven by optimistic overseas capital expectations, ample liquidity from the Federal Reserve, and the initiation of a domestic credit expansion cycle [1][2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) has seen a net inflow of 779 million yuan over the last three trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Macro Environment Support - Analysts note that overseas risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks has been increasing, with the China sovereign CDS dropping to a low of 50.55, suggesting a potential average excess return of 9.8% for the Hang Seng Technology Index over the next six months [2] - Ample USD liquidity provides strong financial support for the Hong Kong technology sector, with historical data showing that the Hang Seng Technology Index performs better during liquidity easing periods [2] - The domestic macro cycle is at a critical turning point, with recent monetary easing policies and stable credit data indicating a shift to a "monetary easing + credit expansion" phase, historically benefiting the Hang Seng Technology Index [2] Group 3: Hang Seng Technology Index Characteristics - The Hang Seng Technology Index comprises 30 leading companies in the Hong Kong tech sector, with the top ten stocks, including Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and Xiaomi, accounting for over 70% of the index [3] - The index has a significant focus on AI, with over 60% of its weight in AI-related companies, allowing it to capitalize on the global AI technology revolution [3] - Earnings growth for the index's constituent companies is robust, with expected EPS growth rates of 43%, 30%, and 20% for 2025-2027, outperforming the broader Hong Kong market [3] - The index is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 and a price-to-book ratio of less than 3, representing over a 30% discount to historical averages [3] Group 4: Fund Allocation Trends - Public funds are increasingly allocating to the Hong Kong technology sector, with the proportion of active equity funds holding Hong Kong stocks rising to 23.59%, significantly above historical averages [4] - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow of over 180 billion HKD this year, with the technology sector accounting for over 40% of this inflow, indicating growing institutional consensus on the sector [4] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is positioned at the intersection of macro cycles, valuation levels, and capital flows, making it an efficient tool for investors to share in the technology sector's benefits [5] - Historical data shows that the ETF closely tracks the index performance, with strong liquidity and trading volume, making it suitable for both on-market and off-market investors [5] - Investors are advised to gradually accumulate the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) to capture opportunities from valuation recovery and earnings growth in leading technology stocks [5]