从急行军到安营扎寨：牛市新节奏·新打法 策略行业2026年春季投资策略 韦冀星（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524030002 邮箱：weijixing@kysec.cn 简宇涵（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525050005 邮箱：jianyuhan@kysec.cn 耿驰政（联系人） 证书编号：S0790125050007 邮箱：gengchizheng@kysec.cn 曹晋（联系人） 证书编号：S0790124080011 邮箱：caojin1@kysec.cn 证券研究报告 2026 年 3 月 3日 核心观点 1.节奏：攀登者的新路程——从急行军到安营扎寨。坚定牛市信心，降低斜率预期 ➢空间与位置：巴菲特连续13个季度净减持美股头寸的原因或藏在证券化率指标当中。A股视角，过去有2次证券化率突破1.1倍，但目前中枢在持 续上行，当前处于 0.91 倍的"爬坡中段"及高敏感区间，市场已由早期的估值修复转向存量资产深度盘活阶段。 ➢攀登模式切换：告别"一鼓作气、加速冲顶"的急行军，转向"每到关口就扎营休整"的安营扎寨。A股不再是"跑得快就赢"，而是进入 "换挡后比谁稳、比谁结构对"的体力管理阶段，通 ...

| Wind代码 | 证券简称 | 截至2月26日 年内涨幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 671010.OF | 西部利得策略优选A | 54.37 | | 673071.OF | 西部利得新动力A | 53.48 | | 673040.OF | 西部利得行业主题优选A | 48.54 | | 001302.OF | 前海开源金银珠宝A | 32.51 | | | 数据来源:Wind,数据截取:2026年1月1日-2026年2月26日; | | 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者栗鹏菲 叶青 北京报道 年初至今，资源板块的结构性行情持续演绎，重仓相关赛道的基金净值表现抢眼，成为公募权益类基金 排名大战中的领跑者。Wind数据显示，截至2月26日，西部利得策略优选A今年以来收益率已达 54.37%，在偏股混合型基金中名列前茅；同一位基金经理管理的西部利得新动力A和西部利得行业主题 优选A年内涨幅也分别达到53.48%和48.54%；前海开源金银珠宝A同样录得32.51%的收益率。 然而，记者查阅基金官方公开信息发现，上述凭借重仓资源股斩获亮眼回报的基金，其基金合同约定的 投 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 资金抢筹布局军工板块，资金面看，军工ETF（512660）近10日净流入近8亿元，关注商业航天与 军贸方向。 东方证券指出，当前重点看好大飞机和军贸。大飞机方面，市场当前对板块关注度和预期均较低， 但发动机、机载等核心分系统攻坚提速，商发长江1000明年有望取得适航认证，基本解除了核心环节对 大飞机批产上量的阻碍，产业发展速度有望超预期。军贸方面，中东局势高度紧张，地区国防需求上 升，且从依靠单一来源 ...

华泰证券认为，主题投资和景气策略仍优于高股息，主题投资关注出口链、服务型消费、机器人应 用等，景气投资关注通信设备、小金属、稀有金属、电池、建材等。 国盛证券表示，有四大变量或成影响节后市场走势的关键。一是美国关税政策仍存不确定性，意味 着贸易摩擦将长期化，短期内将对市场风险偏好形成压制，但出口链企业的韧性已经显现；二是国内人 工智能（AI）大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证，上周 五港股相关板块大涨，A股智能机器人、算力设备、AI应用等板块有望迎来资金追捧；三是以人民币计 价资产的吸引力将提升，尤其是权益市场，外资净流入中国资产已成为大趋势；四是地缘政治不确定性 加剧，推升全球避险情绪。 刚刚结束的马年春节假期可谓"马力十足"。交通运输部发布的数据显示，2026年春节前20天，全社 会跨区域人员流动量超50亿人次，创下了新的历史纪录。同时，国家移民管理局预计今年春节假期全国 口岸日均出入境人员同比增长14.1%，日均超205万人次，比2023年春节增长近5倍。此外，消费也迎来 了"开门红"。今年春节首批以旧换新补贴提前下达，叠加地方政府的消费补贴资金共同为假期消费注入 动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of veteran fund managers has rebounded strongly, challenging the notion that they are outdated and unable to compete with younger managers who focus on high-growth sectors [2][10]. Group 1: Performance Recovery of Veteran Fund Managers - Veteran fund managers have demonstrated a strong recovery in performance, with many achieving record highs in net value in January 2026, despite previous criticisms and market challenges [3][4]. - Notable examples include Wei Dong from Guolian An Fund, whose managed fund's annualized return has returned to over 10%, and Gu Jun from Bosera Fund, who achieved a 71.3% return in the past year [3][4]. - Other veteran managers, such as Qi Fapeng and Xu Lirong, have also seen their funds reach historical net value highs, indicating a broader trend among experienced fund managers [4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Veteran Fund Managers - The market has seen a significant divide, with veteran managers facing pressure from new, high-performing managers who focus on high-volatility sectors, leading to doubts about the capabilities of older managers [5][6]. - Some veteran managers have struggled with large fund sizes, which can limit their ability to adapt quickly to market changes, further intensifying scrutiny on their performance [5][6]. Group 3: Trust Restoration Among Investors - As the performance of actively managed equity funds improves, investor confidence is gradually being restored, reversing previous trends of fund redemptions [8][9]. - Investors have expressed mixed feelings about their experiences, with some reporting significant losses followed by recoveries, highlighting the importance of veteran managers in navigating complex market conditions [9]. - The resurgence of veteran fund managers is seen as a critical factor in rebuilding trust within the public fund industry, as they leverage their experience to manage risks and capitalize on opportunities [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of veteran fund managers in the public fund industry, highlighting their ability to adapt and achieve strong performance despite recent market challenges and skepticism about their relevance [2][10]. Group 1: Performance of Veteran Fund Managers - Veteran fund managers have demonstrated a strong recovery in performance, with many achieving record highs in net value and returns in early 2026, despite facing significant market fluctuations in previous years [3][4]. - Notable examples include Wei Dong from Guolian An Fund, whose fund's annualized return has returned to over 10%, and Gu Jun from Bosera Fund, who achieved a 71.3% return in the past year [3][4]. - Other veteran managers, such as Qi Fapeng from Guotou Ruijin Fund and Zhou Weiwen from China Universal Fund, have also seen their funds reach historical highs, showcasing the effectiveness of their long-term investment strategies [4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Veteran Fund Managers - The market has seen a significant style divergence, leading to periods where veteran managers underperformed compared to newer managers who focused on high-growth sectors, resulting in a loss of investor patience and confidence [6]. - Some veteran managers faced criticism for their performance and were perceived as outdated, especially when managing larger funds that limited their flexibility in adjusting portfolios [6][7]. - Despite these challenges, many veteran managers have maintained their investment philosophies and adapted their strategies to align with market changes, demonstrating resilience and a commitment to continuous learning [7]. Group 3: Rebuilding Investor Trust - As the performance of actively managed equity funds improves, investor confidence is gradually being restored, reversing previous trends of fund redemptions and skepticism towards the public fund industry [8][9]. - The article highlights that veteran fund managers, through their stable and predictable performance, are helping to mend the trust gap that had developed among investors due to past volatility [8][9]. - Feedback from investors indicates a renewed faith in veteran managers, as many have seen their investments recover from significant losses, reinforcing the value of experienced fund management [9].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide clear direction and policy support for the capital market, with a focus on traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry demand expansion, and thematic investments in frontier industries [1] Macro Analysis: Opportunities in Financial Assets - The liquidity environment is expected to remain relatively loose both globally and domestically, providing opportunities across various financial assets, with a particular emphasis on the A-share equity market [2] - Current A-share market valuations are considered reasonable based on historical rolling returns, suggesting that the market is not overly expensive [2] - Two core supporting factors for the A-share market include a friendly liquidity environment and an anticipated upward trend in the profit cycle due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2] Trend Assessment: Technological Self-Reliance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance as a strategic task, highlighting the importance of technological innovation and productivity improvement for sustainable economic development [4] Insight into Opportunities: Three Structural Directions - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines three key investment directions: 1. Traditional industries such as chemicals, shipbuilding, and metallurgy are expected to enhance profitability through supply-side policies and optimization [5][6] 2. Emerging industries like artificial intelligence and energy storage are projected to experience sustained demand growth, leading to rapid development [6] 3. Frontier industries, including embodied intelligence and quantum technology, are seen as having significant growth potential and should be monitored for breakthroughs in basic scientific research [6] Rational Layout: Understanding Industry Trends - Investors are advised to recognize industry trends and avoid frequent timing based on short-term fluctuations, particularly in the high-growth and high-volatility technology sector [7] - The investment strategy should focus on understanding industry development trends and adjusting strategies only when substantial changes occur in the underlying fundamentals [7]

Group 1: Core Insights - The 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America is set to begin in June, with significant pre-event sales of related sports merchandise already observed in Yiwu, China [1] - Yiwu's sports goods and equipment exports reached 11.65 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 20.3% year-on-year increase, with major export markets including the USA, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia [1] - The upcoming World Cup is expected to generate a consumption boom, benefiting local manufacturers and suppliers in Yiwu, which has historically capitalized on major sporting events [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - Analysts predict a surge in demand for sports-related products during the World Cup, directly benefiting the performance of related companies [2] - The commercial value of the World Cup exceeds $30 billion, significantly higher than other sports events, indicating strong economic activity linked to the tournament [2] - Investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: lottery sales and operators, sports venue facilities and equipment suppliers, electronic display providers, and leisure food and beverage suppliers [2] Group 3: Related Companies - Anta Sports (02020) has acquired Puma, a major sponsor of the 2026 World Cup, and holds partnerships with top clubs like Manchester City and AC Milan [3] - Shenzhou International (02313) manufactures football apparel for brands like Nike and Adidas, ensuring stable order flow [3] - Hisense (00921) is a global official sponsor of the 2026 World Cup, marking its third consecutive sponsorship [4] - Yongjia Group (03322) specializes in manufacturing fan scarves and flags, positioning itself as a core enterprise in the Yiwu supply chain [5] - Rainbow International Group (02678) supplies high-quality fabrics for football apparel related to the World Cup [6]

Market Overview - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with significant fluctuations in sectors and individual stocks, such as the liquor sector experiencing a sharp rise mid-week and the metals sector facing a substantial pullback on the last trading day, causing market panic[1] - The frequent and extreme rotation in the market increases the risk of chasing trends, suggesting that maintaining a mid-term position may be wiser[1] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of "buying new, not old; buying big, not small" as a strategy for selecting strong themes in investment[1][2] - The current market environment is characterized by low relative gains, good safety margins, and high certainty in main categories, making it a favorable time to focus on thematic investment opportunities[1] Thematic Investment Insights - Historical data indicates that thematic investments thrive during periods of weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, with active themes often emerging when industrial profits and macroeconomic indicators are low[1][15] - The report identifies key themes for 2026, including AI, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to gain traction due to technological breakthroughs and supportive policies[1][14] Mid-Cap Performance - The CSI 500 index has shown relative strength this year, attributed to precise industry allocation matching the recovery cycle, market capitalization fitting institutional needs, and liquidity supporting large capital participation[2][26] - As of January 29, 2026, the average market capitalization of the CSI 500 is 39.481 billion yuan, positioning it uniquely between large-cap and small-cap stocks, providing both a buffer and an accelerator during market adjustments[2][31] Sector Analysis - The CSI 500's sector distribution is dominated by hardware (12.07%), non-ferrous metals (9.51%), and chemicals (7.67%), contrasting with the CSI 300's focus on finance and consumer sectors, highlighting a "manufacturing + technology" growth profile[2][35] - The report suggests that the cyclical recovery in manufacturing, indicated by a PMI of 50.18%, and supportive monetary policies will benefit mid-cap growth stocks within the CSI 500[2][39] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic policies, global liquidity fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions, which could impact market stability[1][4]

Group 1 - The current market is in a phase of active thematic investment, with significant opportunities arising from themes such as humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, and AI, which are expected to continue into 2026 [10][11][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of thematic investment during periods of weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, suggesting that such conditions often lead to higher market participation in thematic opportunities [15][20] - Thematic investment thrives on specific catalysts, including technological breakthroughs, policy guidance, and media promotion, which can ignite investor interest and drive market momentum [16][17] Group 2 - The strong performance of the CSI 500 index is attributed to its precise industry allocation that aligns with the cyclical recovery, meeting institutional investment needs and benefiting from liquidity support [26][28] - The CSI 500 index showcases a unique mid-cap growth characteristic, with its average market capitalization at approximately 39.48 billion, allowing it to act as a buffer during market adjustments while also accelerating growth [31][35] - The index's sector distribution is heavily weighted towards manufacturing and technology, which differentiates it from the CSI 300, leading to enhanced resilience during market style shifts [33][37] Group 3 - The report discusses the cyclical recovery and pricing logic, indicating that the PPI's recent improvements signal a potential turning point for industrial prices, which could lead to a broader recovery in cyclical sectors [42][48] - The report highlights that the current market dynamics reflect a transition from external cost-driven price increases to internal demand support, particularly in sectors like chemicals and rebar, which are poised for recovery [48][49]