Core Insights - The price of spot gold has increased by 50% this year, reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, driven by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) buying spree [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to a weakening dollar, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and threats of stagflation, which may further boost investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark short-term interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, the lowest level since 2020, following a second consecutive 25 basis point cut [2] - The market reacted sharply to Fed Chair Powell's comments, which cast doubt on the likelihood of further rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield by 0.092 percentage points [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Global demand for gold bars and coins increased by 17% year-on-year in Q3, primarily driven by markets in India and China [3] - The inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking physical gold surged by 134% [3] - However, global jewelry manufacturing demand for gold fell by 23% year-on-year to 419.2 metric tons, as high gold prices dampened consumer purchasing willingness [3] - Central banks' gold purchases in Q3 rose by 10% year-on-year, totaling 219.9 metric tons [3] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - Recent trading saw gold prices dip to a low of $3,915, with the market showing signs of temporary calm [4] - The short-term outlook suggests a bearish trend unless gold prices recover above the $4,000 mark [4] - Key support levels are identified at $3,915, with potential further declines testing the $3,885-$3,890 range if broken [4]

•Sprot：黄金可能取代美元成为首要价值储藏手段 【机构分析】 •混沌天成期货表示，贵金属继续维持较为强势的趋势，主要驱动因素是来自市场降息预期未改，整体 流动性宽松为主，中长期驱动维持支撑。受到美债利率和美元指数的波动，波动率开始回升，美联储独 立性展现被干扰后贵金属趋高；中长期全球货币信用，公共债务，以及对地缘局势的担忧在近期出现一 定发酵，多条件驱动共同推动黄金突破走高，白银弹性更大，黄金支撑更强。美联储降息前市场预期仍 有变动可能，仍需关注市场预期和现实产生偏离的可能性。 •混沌天成期货：多条件驱动共同推动黄金突破走高 •国投期货：聚焦本周美联储会议降息幅度以及鲍威尔讲话对未来路径的指引 •中信建投期货：市场仍在强化降息交易 贵金属表现强势 •野村证券：黄金短期内下一个上行目标直指每盎司3700美元 •野村证券的分析师表示，这次降息更像是"保险性"举措，放松步伐将保持渐进。这意味着美联储不会 一蹴而就，而是步步为营，以避免过度刺激引发通胀反弹。10年期TIPS损益平衡收益率报2.366%，暗 示市场预期未来十年平均年通胀率约为2.4%，这与美联储的温和路径相契合。对于黄金而言，这种渐 进降息将持续压 ...