该行指，事实上，这甚至可能引发更强烈的"害怕错过"(FOMO)情绪，尤其是那些购买价值在5000万至 9900万港元之间的房产的买家，可能会担心未来需要支付更高的印花税。在消息公布后，该板块回调 1%至2%，该行认为这更象是年初至今强劲表现后盈利套现的借口。该行指，目前最看好的开发商包括 新地、恒地和信置；收租股包括恒隆地产和太古地产。 摩根大通发表研报指，在港府2026/27年度《财政预算案》中，对价值超过1亿港元的房产印花税率上调 感到惊讶。虽然标题看起来是负面，但该行表示并不太担心，因为这只会影响0.3%的交易，根据2025 年价值超过1亿港元交易仅有169笔；从超级富豪购房者角度来看，新增成本(2.25%)可能微不足道，主 要是房价上涨一两个月即可覆盖这部分成本；这项政策的目标并非打压房地产市场，而更似是一项再分 配的财政政策，透过向超级富豪征税以补贴低收入群体。 ...

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has increased by 50% this year, reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, driven by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) buying spree [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to a weakening dollar, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and threats of stagflation, which may further boost investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark short-term interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, the lowest level since 2020, following a second consecutive 25 basis point cut [2] - The market reacted sharply to Fed Chair Powell's comments, which cast doubt on the likelihood of further rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield by 0.092 percentage points [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Global demand for gold bars and coins increased by 17% year-on-year in Q3, primarily driven by markets in India and China [3] - The inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking physical gold surged by 134% [3] - However, global jewelry manufacturing demand for gold fell by 23% year-on-year to 419.2 metric tons, as high gold prices dampened consumer purchasing willingness [3] - Central banks' gold purchases in Q3 rose by 10% year-on-year, totaling 219.9 metric tons [3] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - Recent trading saw gold prices dip to a low of $3,915, with the market showing signs of temporary calm [4] - The short-term outlook suggests a bearish trend unless gold prices recover above the $4,000 mark [4] - Key support levels are identified at $3,915, with potential further declines testing the $3,885-$3,890 range if broken [4]

Group 1 - Silver prices reached a historical high of $48.86 per ounce, driven by rising gold prices and increased investor buying [1] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices include expectations of US interest rate cuts, rising political and economic uncertainties, strong central bank purchases, increased ETF inflows, and a weakening dollar [1][3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF inflows reached $64 billion this year, with a record $17.3 billion in September alone [3] Group 2 - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise this year, potentially challenging the $5,000 per ounce mark, with no clear catalysts for a significant pullback [3] - HSBC has raised its average silver price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $38.56 and $44.50 per ounce, respectively, citing high gold prices and recovering investor demand [3] - Other precious metals also saw price increases, with platinum rising 2.8% to $1,660.78 per ounce and palladium rising 7.2% to $1,434.25 per ounce, marking the highest levels since June 2023 [3]