Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a new operational framework in business as traditional methods based on induction have become ineffective in the face of rapid changes driven by AI and market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Survival Strategies - The first section focuses on practical survival strategies in a buyer's market, addressing concerns about selling and high traffic costs [6][7]. - The core logic is to move away from traffic anxiety and return to the fundamental principles of product and brand [7]. - Key courses include strategies for navigating market cycles, creating standout products, and building sustainable brands [8][9][10][12]. Group 2: Seeking Incremental Growth - The second section discusses finding new growth opportunities through hard technology and globalization [14]. - The focus is on looking beyond domestic competition to identify new spaces and time-based advantages [14]. - Courses cover brand building, understanding user needs, and constructing viable business systems [13][15][16]. Group 3: Individual Evolution - The third section highlights the importance of personal and organizational stability in uncertain times [17][18]. - It emphasizes that as external chaos increases, internal steadiness becomes crucial [18]. - Courses aim to enhance personal growth and organizational cohesion to withstand market pressures [19][20]. Group 4: Fundamental Restructuring - The final section addresses the fundamental restructuring required in the AI era, positioning it as the new infrastructure for the future [21][22]. - The core logic is to avoid applying outdated internet thinking to new AI technologies [23]. - Courses focus on redefining business strategies, product innovation, and organizational adaptation to leverage AI effectively [24][26][27].

Core Insights - The essence of investment is a research and judgment process about the future, supported by two fundamental methods: induction and deduction, with a third dimension of rational boundaries to combat cognitive ambiguity [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Decision Cases - Case 1 discusses a cross-border e-commerce company that experienced over 100% year-on-year growth from 2016 to 2017 but saw a significant slowdown in Q1 2018. The company had a low average order value of approximately $10 and faced quality concerns, with retention rates dropping significantly over time [4][12]. - Case 2 compares four short video apps, highlighting their daily active user (DAU) differences, with Product A leading at approximately 60 million DAU, while Product D had only about 5 million. The analysis emphasizes the importance of user engagement and retention metrics in investment decisions [6][8]. Group 2: Induction Method - Induction is defined as deriving general principles from specific facts and historical samples, which can be used to judge new cases. This method is crucial in understanding industry changes, company growth, and team capabilities [10]. - Three types of induction are identified: analogical induction, enumerative induction focusing on key performance indicators, and statistical induction that abstracts winning patterns from successful companies [11][12]. Group 3: Deduction Method - Deduction involves reasoning from general principles to predict future trends, focusing on macro environments, industry evolution, and technological advancements. It is essential when historical samples are no longer reliable [18][19]. - Three paths of deduction are outlined: behavioral changes leading to new business models, structural changes in macro environments, and breakthroughs in technology that create new opportunities [19]. Group 4: Weee! Case Study - Weee!, a leading ethnic grocery e-commerce platform in North America, showcases a successful combination of induction and deduction in investment analysis. The company has a high and stable quarterly repurchase rate, indicating strong business quality [25][26]. - Key deductions about Weee! include its competitive advantages over traditional supermarkets, cost efficiencies in delivery, and the potential for market expansion among diverse ethnic groups in the U.S. [27][28]. Group 5: Challenges of Induction and Deduction - Induction may lead to missed opportunities if historical patterns are rigidly applied, as seen in the case of SHEIN, which defied initial negative predictions and achieved significant revenue growth [14]. - Deduction can lead to illusions if the foundational logic is flawed or if the assumptions do not hold true in changing environments. It is crucial to ensure that the reasoning is based on stable, verifiable principles [30][31]. Group 6: AI Era Considerations - In the AI era, traditional research methods face challenges as historical samples become less relevant. Investors must return to first principles to identify what is certain and deduce potential future paths [32][34]. - Four constraints impacting AI development are identified: computational power, energy sustainability, data quality, and talent availability, which are critical for identifying investment opportunities [35]. Group 7: Rational Boundaries - To navigate the uncertainties of the AI era, establishing rational boundaries is essential. This involves focusing on irreversible variables, using constraints for reasoning, and understanding that AI evolution is a series of incremental changes rather than sudden shifts [36][37]. Group 8: Summary - The importance of using induction to understand the past and deduction to envision the future is emphasized, along with the need to avoid falling into single-minded thinking traps in a rapidly changing environment [39].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of both intuition and logic in human thinking, suggesting that significant discoveries often arise from moments when intuition contradicts established logic [3][10][21] - The article discusses the distinction between deductive reasoning, which relies on existing rules, and inductive reasoning, which seeks to discover new patterns from experiences [15][19] - It highlights the need for a balanced educational approach that encourages inductive reasoning to activate intuition, leading to a more engaging learning experience [16][22] Group 2 - The text explains that intuition is a product of subconscious processing, which involves complex calculations that are not easily articulated [4][6][8] - It notes that many individuals lose their intuitive abilities due to educational systems that prioritize correctness and standardization, suppressing subconscious insights [12][21] - The article suggests that fostering an environment where intuition is valued can lead to better decision-making and a deeper understanding of various situations [21][22]