Core Insights - The essence of investment is a research and judgment process about the future, supported by two fundamental methods: induction and deduction, with a third dimension of rational boundaries to combat cognitive ambiguity [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Decision Cases - Case 1 discusses a cross-border e-commerce company that experienced over 100% year-on-year growth from 2016 to 2017 but saw a significant slowdown in Q1 2018. The company had a low average order value of approximately $10 and faced quality concerns, with retention rates dropping significantly over time [4][12]. - Case 2 compares four short video apps, highlighting their daily active user (DAU) differences, with Product A leading at approximately 60 million DAU, while Product D had only about 5 million. The analysis emphasizes the importance of user engagement and retention metrics in investment decisions [6][8]. Group 2: Induction Method - Induction is defined as deriving general principles from specific facts and historical samples, which can be used to judge new cases. This method is crucial in understanding industry changes, company growth, and team capabilities [10]. - Three types of induction are identified: analogical induction, enumerative induction focusing on key performance indicators, and statistical induction that abstracts winning patterns from successful companies [11][12]. Group 3: Deduction Method - Deduction involves reasoning from general principles to predict future trends, focusing on macro environments, industry evolution, and technological advancements. It is essential when historical samples are no longer reliable [18][19]. - Three paths of deduction are outlined: behavioral changes leading to new business models, structural changes in macro environments, and breakthroughs in technology that create new opportunities [19]. Group 4: Weee! Case Study - Weee!, a leading ethnic grocery e-commerce platform in North America, showcases a successful combination of induction and deduction in investment analysis. The company has a high and stable quarterly repurchase rate, indicating strong business quality [25][26]. - Key deductions about Weee! include its competitive advantages over traditional supermarkets, cost efficiencies in delivery, and the potential for market expansion among diverse ethnic groups in the U.S. [27][28]. Group 5: Challenges of Induction and Deduction - Induction may lead to missed opportunities if historical patterns are rigidly applied, as seen in the case of SHEIN, which defied initial negative predictions and achieved significant revenue growth [14]. - Deduction can lead to illusions if the foundational logic is flawed or if the assumptions do not hold true in changing environments. It is crucial to ensure that the reasoning is based on stable, verifiable principles [30][31]. Group 6: AI Era Considerations - In the AI era, traditional research methods face challenges as historical samples become less relevant. Investors must return to first principles to identify what is certain and deduce potential future paths [32][34]. - Four constraints impacting AI development are identified: computational power, energy sustainability, data quality, and talent availability, which are critical for identifying investment opportunities [35]. Group 7: Rational Boundaries - To navigate the uncertainties of the AI era, establishing rational boundaries is essential. This involves focusing on irreversible variables, using constraints for reasoning, and understanding that AI evolution is a series of incremental changes rather than sudden shifts [36][37]. Group 8: Summary - The importance of using induction to understand the past and deduction to envision the future is emphasized, along with the need to avoid falling into single-minded thinking traps in a rapidly changing environment [39].

本周 推荐阅读 这周有三份聪投的独家放送。 一个是坚持了4年的"老朋友"，聪明投资者与国泰基金携手的《深夜食堂》。 想起跟一家银行总行产品经理交流时，他说，最适合银行绝大多数客户的产品还是稳健的，要回撤小、 风险控制好，向上的弹性也不能太差。事实上，经过过去三四年的市场，大家对于回撤的感受都要比过 去来得深刻。 不管科技与能源浪潮如何翻涌，一份安心的投资总是压舱石的存在。 但"稳"常常是一种被低估的力量。 其他值得看 1、 刘煜辉最新发声：A股收官阶段的情绪面大概率不具备进攻性，明年布局最看好四个领域，黄金仍 是最好的定投资产…… 2、 当理性成为稀缺品！从霍华德·马克斯最新备忘录，理解杨东陈光明的"封盘"…… 3、 听一位喜欢研究生意经的价值投资者聊聊，如何做AI时代的好朋友 4、 红利的"老友"时刻：在十月的躁动里，它稳稳当当 点击阅读： 深夜食堂第十三季｜在极端市场环境中，如何寻求"稳"的力量 10月28日到30日，毕盛投资（APS）的三十周年庆典论坛上，我们听了全程，各种干货，比如这篇： 一场不容错过的对话！两个"看多中国的人"深谈稀土博弈、制度韧性与中美格局重估…… 以及跟圆桌对话的嘉宾之一张忆东， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the volatility in the gold market, highlighting the recent dramatic price fluctuations and their implications for investors [2] - It emphasizes the importance of having a long-term investment strategy, particularly in the context of technological advancements and market uncertainties [3] - The piece suggests that investors should focus on fundamental analysis and avoid excessive leverage in their investment decisions [5] Group 2 - The article mentions that certain segments of the non-ferrous metals market still show strong support despite recent market corrections [5] - It highlights the significance of education in personal finance, particularly regarding retirement planning, indicating that it is essential for all age groups [7] - The content also includes insights from fund managers on the high volatility of innovative pharmaceuticals and the potential for gold prices to continue rising [9][11]