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泡泡玛特(9992.HK):2025H1业绩大超市场预期 利润率同环比显著提升
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-17 19:17
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased global recognition of its IP and expansion in overseas markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue increase of no less than 200% in H1 2025, translating to at least 136.73 billion yuan, compared to 45.58 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1]. - Profit is expected to grow by no less than 350%, reaching at least 44.89 billion yuan, up from 9.64 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1]. - The profit margin is projected to be around 32.83%, an increase of 10.94 and 5.69 percentage points compared to H1 2024 and H2 2024, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Expansion and IP Influence - The company has accelerated its overseas store expansion, reaching 160 stores by the end of H1 2025, with significant openings in the U.S., Indonesia, and Thailand [2]. - The company's TikTok channel generated a GMV of 4.98 billion yuan in H1 2025, a substantial increase from 2.62 billion yuan in the previous year, with the U.S. leading in sales [2]. - The global influence of the company's IP continues to rise, with popular products like the LABUBU series seeing high demand in markets such as the U.S. and the U.K. [2]. Group 3: Product Development and Diversification - The company has accelerated product launches, introducing 47 new blind box products and 26 MEGA products in H1 2025, reflecting a strong market response [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, including entering the small home appliance sector to diversify its offerings [3]. - The company maintains a strong position in the trendy toy culture and commercialization, leveraging its full industry chain and platform advantages [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting revenues of 307.97 billion yuan, 414.15 billion yuan, and 497.72 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 94.05 billion yuan, 128.48 billion yuan, and 155.14 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be 100.37 billion yuan, 136.11 billion yuan, and 164.38 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 31, 23, and 19 [3].