Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast, expecting revenue from 2025 to 2027 to reach 38.53 billion, 49.50 billion, and 58.55 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.13 billion, 17.03 billion, and 20.19 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential in the collectible toy market [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The overall revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 245%-250% year-on-year, with domestic growth at 185%-190% and overseas growth at 365%-370% [1] - Revenue from overseas regions such as Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe is projected to grow by 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Pop Mart has opened 154 overseas stores, with plans to reach 200 by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its store openings in the U.S. and expanding partnerships with bookstores, including a collaboration with Books-A-Million to introduce Pop Mart products [2] - The recent launch of the Skullpanda collaboration has generated significant interest, with TikTok videos reaching 1.5 million views and over 137,000 likes [2] Group 3: Product Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from offline and online channels in China grew by 130%-135% and 300%-305% respectively [3] - The company has increased the pace of new product launches, introducing 20 blind box products and 14 plush series in Q3 2025 [3] - The Starry People IP is gaining momentum, with significant demand for new plush products, indicating a strong market interest [3] Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Q4 is expected to be a peak season with multiple holidays, including Halloween, Double 11, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas, providing opportunities for new product launches [4] - The company anticipates the release of several key products during these important holiday periods [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast, expecting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its leadership in the trendy toy culture and commercialization [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company expects overall revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with China growing by 185%-190% and overseas markets by 365%-370% [1] - Revenue from overseas regions is experiencing high growth, with Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe showing year-on-year increases of 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively [1] Group 2: Store Expansion - The company has accelerated its store openings in North America, with a total of 154 overseas stores by the end of Q3 2025, aiming for 200 by the end of 2025 [1][2] - A partnership with Books-A-Million has been established to enhance market penetration, with new products being launched in their stores and online [2] Group 3: Product Performance - The "Starry People" IP is gaining momentum, with Q3 2025 showing a 130%-135% year-on-year increase in offline revenue and a 300%-305% increase in online revenue [3] - The company launched 20 blind box products and 14 plush series in Q3 2025, indicating an accelerated product release schedule [3] Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Q4 is expected to be a peak season with multiple holidays, including Halloween, Double 11, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, which will drive sales [4] - The company anticipates the release of significant new products during these key holiday periods [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased global recognition of its IP and expansion in overseas markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue increase of no less than 200% in H1 2025, translating to at least 136.73 billion yuan, compared to 45.58 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1]. - Profit is expected to grow by no less than 350%, reaching at least 44.89 billion yuan, up from 9.64 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1]. - The profit margin is projected to be around 32.83%, an increase of 10.94 and 5.69 percentage points compared to H1 2024 and H2 2024, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Expansion and IP Influence - The company has accelerated its overseas store expansion, reaching 160 stores by the end of H1 2025, with significant openings in the U.S., Indonesia, and Thailand [2]. - The company's TikTok channel generated a GMV of 4.98 billion yuan in H1 2025, a substantial increase from 2.62 billion yuan in the previous year, with the U.S. leading in sales [2]. - The global influence of the company's IP continues to rise, with popular products like the LABUBU series seeing high demand in markets such as the U.S. and the U.K. [2]. Group 3: Product Development and Diversification - The company has accelerated product launches, introducing 47 new blind box products and 26 MEGA products in H1 2025, reflecting a strong market response [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, including entering the small home appliance sector to diversify its offerings [3]. - The company maintains a strong position in the trendy toy culture and commercialization, leveraging its full industry chain and platform advantages [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting revenues of 307.97 billion yuan, 414.15 billion yuan, and 497.72 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 94.05 billion yuan, 128.48 billion yuan, and 155.14 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be 100.37 billion yuan, 136.11 billion yuan, and 164.38 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 31, 23, and 19 [3].