2026 的策略探讨：趋势强化与景气反转 20260118 摘要 AI 产业与硬件分化明显，台积电财报强化 AI 算力产业链投资需求，存储 行业景气度持续，中国产业链关注洁净室等环节受益，预示半导体、硬 件、AI 趋势在 2026 年仍为主线。 消费领域呈现新消费崛起与老消费低迷的分化，部分底部行业出现新线 索，高景气新消费主线调整，市场情绪周期上行至中间阶段，短期情绪 亢奋但整体估值合理。 中国出口增长强劲，贸易顺差增加，PPI 和 CPI 反转，居民配置比例上 升，外资兴趣增加，对宏观经济、全球经济、产业盈利预期及市场配置 持乐观态度。 台积电上调 AI 收入复合增长率至 50%以上，锁定 2027 年部分产能， 增强对 AI 算力投资持续性的信心，尤其对 2026-2027 年产业趋势具指 示意义。 半导体行业面临产能扩张滞后，可能出现缺货涨价，波及存储、先进制 程、先进封装及设备材料环节，台积电增加资本开支，上游设备和材料 将显著受益。 Q&A 2026 年市场策略的主要思路是什么？ 2026 年市场策略的主要思路可以分为两个方面。首先是对 2025 年趋势的延 续，特别是在 AI 和半导体周期上的投 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has significantly declined, dropping 44% from its August peak, leading to a market value loss of over 200 billion HKD, comparable to a major company like Haitian Flavoring and Food [1][2] Stock Performance - In the last seven trading days, Pop Mart's stock has only seen two days of gains, with significant declines on other days, reflecting a market capitalization reduction of over 40% since the peak on August 29 [1][2] - The stock was initially listed at 80 HKD per share in late 2020, fell below 10 HKD in late 2022, and reached a high of 339.8 HKD on August 29, 2025 [1] Market Concerns - Concerns have arisen regarding Pop Mart's sales performance during the upcoming Black Friday promotions in the U.S., with expectations that the market interest in new products may not meet previous levels [2][4] - The premium on hidden versions of products has decreased by over 50%, and regular versions are selling below official retail prices on secondary markets [4] Growth and Revenue Projections - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that while there is a strong growth driven by the Labubu IP, there are significant risks related to supply and demand imbalances [5] - Two contrasting scenarios for future growth have been proposed: one predicting a 20% decline in domestic revenue and a 10% decline in overseas revenue by 2026, and another forecasting a 30% increase in domestic revenue and a 50% increase in overseas revenue [5] Business Model and Strategy - Pop Mart has successfully transitioned from a retail company to an IP incubation operation, creating a matrix of popular IPs, including Labubu and Crybaby [8][10] - The company has increased its production capacity from an average of 10 million units per month to 50 million units by the end of the year, significantly boosting revenue and profit [9][10] Challenges of Mass Production - The rapid expansion of production capacity may dilute the brand's appeal, as products that were once scarce become widely available, potentially transforming them into mass-market items [10][11] - The company is advised to shift from explosive growth to sustainable growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the "cool" and "scarcity" attributes of its products [12][13] Comparison with Disney - Pop Mart's business model is still in its early stages compared to Disney, which has diversified into entertainment, sports, and experiential sectors, generating substantial revenue [15][18] - Disney's success is attributed to its ability to create emotional connections through IP and monetize them across various platforms, a strategy that Pop Mart has yet to fully adopt [19][20] Future Directions - To evolve into a "emotional consumption ecosystem," Pop Mart needs to explore new markets and develop business areas closely related to its core IPs, moving beyond just selling toys [20][21][22]

Core Insights - The company Tanwan has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with COEXIST Group to develop and promote derivative products based on the works of over 200 artists, marking a significant expansion in the collectible toy industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The agreement allows COEXIST Group to integrate resources from more than 200 artists, creating a unique IP matrix that combines artistic value with commercial potential [2] - Tanwan will have exclusive rights to develop, design, produce, and sell collectible toys based on the artists' works, including various product types such as sculptures, plush toys, and action figures [2][3] Group 2: Artistic and Commercial Integration - The collaboration aims to establish a new paradigm for "artist IP," providing comprehensive support from market assessment to product development and promotional activities [3] - Tanwan plans to explore further collaboration opportunities with artists and expand partnerships to include its own brands and internationally recognized IPs [3] Group 3: Future Strategy - The company is focused on building a new collectible toy ecosystem centered around the "IP ecosystem strategy," which includes classic IPs and artist IPs as key pillars [4] - The goal is to enhance user engagement and emotional connection through creative and fun collectible toys, ensuring that art becomes a part of daily life [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, 贪玩 (TANWAN), has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with COEXIST Group to develop and promote derivative products based on the works of over 200 artists, marking a significant expansion in the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry and integrating classic IP with artist IP [1][2][3] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Agreement - The agreement involves the integration of resources from COEXIST Group, which will sign contracts with over 200 artists to obtain complete authorization for the project, creating a unique IP matrix that combines artistic value with commercial potential [2] - TANWAN will have exclusive rights to develop, design, produce, and sell trendy toy products based on the artists' works, including sculptures, plush toys, and other derivative products [2][3] Group 2: Full-Chain Support and Market Strategy - The cooperation aims to establish a new paradigm for "artist IP," with TANWAN leveraging its expertise in user insights, data analysis, and targeted marketing to support artists from initial creation to product launch [3] - Future collaborations may extend to TANWAN's own brands and internationally recognized classic IPs, enhancing the creative development of IP products [3] Group 3: IP Ecosystem Strategy - The company plans to build a new潮玩 ecosystem centered around an "IP ecosystem strategy," focusing on the integration of classic IP and artist IP, emotional interaction design, and social experience [4] - The brand's mission is to illuminate daily life with creativity and fun, aiming to resonate emotionally with users through trendy toys that serve as mediums for personal expression [4]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並表明概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Tanwan Inc. （ 於 開 曼 群 島 貪玩 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：9890） 自願公告 簽訂藝術家作品開發合作協定 本公告由貪玩（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司及中國經營實體1 ，統稱為「本集團」） 作出之自願公告，使其股東及潛在投資者知悉本集團之最新發展。 本公司欣然宣佈，於2025年11月27日，本集團專注於潮玩業務的全資附屬公司 廣州粒粒呀文化娛樂有限公司（「TANWAN」）與COEXIST CO., LIMITED（共凝文 化集團有限公司）及深圳市共藝斯文化有限公司（兩家公司合稱「COEXIST集 團」）簽訂戰略合作協議《藝術家作品開發合作協定》（「戰略合作協議」），整合 逾二百名潮玩藝術家（「藝術家」），共同開展藝術作品的衍生品開發、銷售及推 廣活動。合作期限（「合作期限」）為五年，自2025年11月27日至2030年11月26日。 此次合作標誌著本集團依託自身在 ...

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai, showcasing various brands including Pop Mart, which emphasizes its theme of "Creating Trends, Boundless Play" [1][4] - Pop Mart prominently features its popular IPs, SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, creating an immersive experience for attendees [4] Group 1: Event Highlights - Pop Mart's exhibition design is inspired by a "birthday celebration," creating a warm and festive atmosphere with a giant birthday cake adorned with various IP characters [1] - The SKULLPANDA character, created by artist 熊喵, embodies the aesthetic concept of "boundless imagery," while CRYBABY, designed by Thai artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression and resonates globally [4] Group 2: Product and Market Expansion - Pop Mart showcases a diverse range of products including figurines and plush toys, enhancing the customer experience with smooth offline services and unique brand culture [4] - The company is expanding its product matrix to include new categories such as building blocks, desserts, and jewelry, breathing new life into its IPs and enriching consumer experiences [4] - By 2025, Pop Mart aims for triple-digit growth across four major regions, with the Americas experiencing over tenfold growth, marking a significant milestone in its international strategy [4] Group 3: Global Presence - Pop Mart continues to establish its presence in iconic global locations, opening its first store in landmark areas such as Cambridge, UK, and Bali, Indonesia, with a total of over 570 stores worldwide [5] - The company has also opened its first store in the Middle East at Hamad International Airport in Doha, becoming the first Chinese brand to enter this airport [5]

Core Insights - The "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan" aims to enhance urban commercial systems by promoting diverse consumption and supporting high-quality economic development [1][2] Group 1: Policy and Industry Trends - The plan emphasizes the dual approach of supply and demand, focusing on innovation and quality upgrades to meet diverse consumer needs while enhancing consumption willingness through optimized experiences [1][3] - The integration of culture, commerce, and tourism is highlighted as a key feature, aiming to create unique commercial landmarks that enhance urban soft power and attract international tourists [2][3] Group 2: Company Strategies - Companies are actively aligning their strategies with the plan, such as Beijing Yuanlong Yatu Cultural Communication Co., Ltd., which is expanding its C-end retail business and focusing on cultural IP collaborations [4][5] - The company is developing various products based on popular global IPs, which have received positive consumer feedback, indicating a successful integration of diverse business models [5]

Core Insights - The company Yuanlong Yatu (002878.SZ) reported a revenue of 2.214 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.986 million yuan, up 127.09% [2] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 823 million yuan, marking a 41.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.593 million yuan, which is a 235.80% increase [2] Group 1: Business Strategy and Performance - The company is advancing its "Big IP + Technology" core strategy, transitioning from a B2B marketing leader to a "B+C linkage" model, focusing on retail IP cultural product design and development [2][3] - The marketing services segment, including promotional services and new media marketing, generated 2.176 billion yuan in revenue, a 25.17% increase, with a gross profit of 259 million yuan, up 2.86% [3] - The sports IP sector has shown significant growth, with licensed merchandise revenue reaching 33.56 million yuan and a gross margin of 35.22%, benefiting from events like the Harbin Winter Games and Chengdu Universiade [3] Group 2: C-end Retail Strategy - The establishment of the wholly-owned subsidiary Yuanlong Yuanchuang Cultural (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and the launch of the C-end retail brand "Yuanlong Yuanchuang" marks a significant milestone in the company's strategy [4] - The first store opened in Beijing features nearly 20 well-known IPs and around 400 SKUs, combining standardized IP scenes with local cultural displays [4] - The company is expanding its C-end market presence through diverse channel layouts and product development, creating a "B+C linkage" business model [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast, expecting revenue from 2025 to 2027 to reach 38.53 billion, 49.50 billion, and 58.55 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.13 billion, 17.03 billion, and 20.19 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential in the collectible toy market [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The overall revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 245%-250% year-on-year, with domestic growth at 185%-190% and overseas growth at 365%-370% [1] - Revenue from overseas regions such as Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe is projected to grow by 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Pop Mart has opened 154 overseas stores, with plans to reach 200 by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its store openings in the U.S. and expanding partnerships with bookstores, including a collaboration with Books-A-Million to introduce Pop Mart products [2] - The recent launch of the Skullpanda collaboration has generated significant interest, with TikTok videos reaching 1.5 million views and over 137,000 likes [2] Group 3: Product Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from offline and online channels in China grew by 130%-135% and 300%-305% respectively [3] - The company has increased the pace of new product launches, introducing 20 blind box products and 14 plush series in Q3 2025 [3] - The Starry People IP is gaining momentum, with significant demand for new plush products, indicating a strong market interest [3] Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Q4 is expected to be a peak season with multiple holidays, including Halloween, Double 11, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas, providing opportunities for new product launches [4] - The company anticipates the release of several key products during these important holiday periods [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast, expecting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its leadership in the trendy toy culture and commercialization [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company expects overall revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with China growing by 185%-190% and overseas markets by 365%-370% [1] - Revenue from overseas regions is experiencing high growth, with Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe showing year-on-year increases of 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively [1] Group 2: Store Expansion - The company has accelerated its store openings in North America, with a total of 154 overseas stores by the end of Q3 2025, aiming for 200 by the end of 2025 [1][2] - A partnership with Books-A-Million has been established to enhance market penetration, with new products being launched in their stores and online [2] Group 3: Product Performance - The "Starry People" IP is gaining momentum, with Q3 2025 showing a 130%-135% year-on-year increase in offline revenue and a 300%-305% increase in online revenue [3] - The company launched 20 blind box products and 14 plush series in Q3 2025, indicating an accelerated product release schedule [3] Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Q4 is expected to be a peak season with multiple holidays, including Halloween, Double 11, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, which will drive sales [4] - The company anticipates the release of significant new products during these key holiday periods [4]