文｜新消费早参 狂飙的泡泡玛特，在股价上踩了急刹车。 昨天，泡泡玛特股价又跌了5个点，以190.3港元/股收盘。这一表现较8月份高点的339.8港元/股已然缩 水近44%。市值蒸发超2000亿港元，几乎等同于一个海天味业。 这并非是新课题。当一个主打创意、IP、文化娱乐的品牌公司，开始进行规模化工业生产时，泡泡玛特 就已陷入"可获得性悖论"：稀缺的潮流IP或将沦为大众消费品。 对标"前辈"迪士尼先后布局娱乐、体育、体验等业务板块，国潮泡泡玛特可能还有很长的路要走。 股价"跌跌不休" 在最近7个交易日，泡泡玛特股价只有两日飘红。且在飘绿交易日中，该公司股价动辄就下滑八九个 点。 如果对比近期股价制高点的8月29日（339.8港元/股），泡泡玛特市值已经缩水超4成。 自2020年底登陆港股，泡泡玛特以80港元/股的发行价出现在股民面前。在2022年第四季度，其股价跌 落谷底，跌破10元。但从2024年2月底，泡泡玛特股价开始回升，至2024年10月底，其股价再度逼近发 行价。此后便一路走高，至2025年8月29日的盘中339.8港元/股。 粗略估算一下，泡泡玛特这一波下跌行情已经持续了3个多月时间。 根据外部消息 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast, expecting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its leadership in the trendy toy culture and commercialization [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company expects overall revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with China growing by 185%-190% and overseas markets by 365%-370% [1] - Revenue from overseas regions is experiencing high growth, with Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe showing year-on-year increases of 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively [1] Group 2: Store Expansion - The company has accelerated its store openings in North America, with a total of 154 overseas stores by the end of Q3 2025, aiming for 200 by the end of 2025 [1][2] - A partnership with Books-A-Million has been established to enhance market penetration, with new products being launched in their stores and online [2] Group 3: Product Performance - The "Starry People" IP is gaining momentum, with Q3 2025 showing a 130%-135% year-on-year increase in offline revenue and a 300%-305% increase in online revenue [3] - The company launched 20 blind box products and 14 plush series in Q3 2025, indicating an accelerated product release schedule [3] Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Q4 is expected to be a peak season with multiple holidays, including Halloween, Double 11, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, which will drive sales [4] - The company anticipates the release of significant new products during these key holiday periods [4]