Core Viewpoint - SF Holding's logistics business shows strong growth in October 2025, with significant increases in revenue and package volume, reflecting broader trends in the logistics industry driven by national policies aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In October 2025, SF Holding reported total revenue of 26.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [3]. - The express logistics business generated revenue of 20.091 billion yuan, up 13.68% year-on-year, while supply chain and international business revenue slightly decreased by 0.93% to 6.363 billion yuan [3][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 225.26 billion yuan, a growth of 8.9%, and a net profit of 8.31 billion yuan, increasing by 9.1% [6]. Business Volume and Growth - In October, the volume of express logistics reached 1.524 billion packages, marking a 26.26% increase year-on-year, the highest in the company's history, averaging 49.16 million packages per day [1][4]. - The average revenue per package decreased to 13.18 yuan, down 9.97% year-on-year, compared to 16.26 yuan in October 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 19% over two years [4]. Market Trends and Strategic Initiatives - The logistics industry is experiencing a transformation, shifting from price competition to a focus on technology, efficiency, service, and cost control [4]. - SF Holding is advancing its supply chain integration services, positioning itself as a leading provider in the industry [4]. - The company is actively enhancing its delivery capabilities through strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with Zeiss and Meituan Health to improve its logistics network [10]. Future Outlook - SF Holding aims for stable growth in net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025, with expectations of maintaining a year-on-year increase for the full year [8].

Core Insights - SF Holding reported a total revenue of 26.454 billion yuan in October 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.79% [2][3] - The express logistics business volume reached 1.524 billion packages in October, a year-on-year increase of 26.26%, marking a historical high for the company [4][5] - The company continues to implement its "activation operation" mechanism to enhance market expansion and improve service competitiveness [4][6] Revenue Breakdown - In October, the express logistics business generated revenue of 20.091 billion yuan, up 13.68% year-on-year, while the supply chain and international business revenue was 6.363 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.93% [3][4] - The average revenue per package decreased to 13.18 yuan, down 9.97% year-on-year, compared to 16.26 yuan in October 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 19% over two years [4][5] Market Context - The logistics industry is experiencing steady growth, supported by national policies aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency [2][4] - The overall postal industry reported a cumulative business volume of 177.25 billion items in the first ten months of 2025, with express delivery volume reaching 162.68 billion items, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [2] Strategic Initiatives - SF Holding is focusing on sustainable development and high-quality service to meet the increased demand during peak shopping seasons [4][6] - The company is adapting to market changes by leveraging its global network and product offerings, particularly in international freight and supply chain services [4][6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates steady growth in net profit for 2025, despite short-term pressure on profitability due to pricing declines [6][7] - SF Holding aims to maintain a stable net profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 and continue to strengthen its strategic position in the logistics market [7][8] Partnerships and Collaborations - In October, SF Holding established a strategic partnership with Zeiss for global distribution and collaborated with Meituan Health to enhance its pharmaceutical supply chain capabilities [9]

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.57 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, while achieving operating revenue of 78.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The total parcel volume reached 4.31 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, indicating a significant increase in market share [1] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 11.04 billion, 12.48 billion, and 14.09 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.5, 16.4, and 14.5 [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The accelerated expansion of business scale is primarily attributed to the ongoing "activation operation" mechanism and strategic resource investment in 2025 [1] - The company is dynamically adjusting market strategies, implementing differentiated authorization in business regions, and shifting the incentive focus from scale-driven to value-driven [1] Group 3: Operational Improvements - SF Holding plans to fully integrate internal and external resources, deepen operational model innovation, and promote network and resource stratification to adapt to diverse logistics business development [1] - The company has raised the share repurchase amount for the first phase of 2025 to a scale of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan, demonstrating confidence in future development and long-term strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.57 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, while achieving operating revenue of 78.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The total parcel volume reached 4.31 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, indicating a significant increase in market share [1] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 11.04 billion, 12.48 billion, and 14.09 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.5, 16.4, and 14.5 [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The accelerated expansion of business scale is primarily attributed to the ongoing "activation operation" mechanism and strategic resource investment in 2025 [1] - The company is dynamically adjusting market strategies, implementing differentiated authorization in business regions, and shifting the incentive focus from scale-driven to value-driven [1] - SF Holding plans to fully integrate internal and external resources, deepen operational model innovation, and promote a tiered network and resource structure to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1] Group 3: Shareholder Confidence - The company has increased the share repurchase amount for the first phase of 2025 to a scale of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan, demonstrating confidence in future development and long-term strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding reported its Q3 2025 results, achieving operating revenue of 78.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.21%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.53% to 2.571 billion yuan, meeting expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company maintained a high growth rate in express delivery volume, with a year-on-year increase of 33% in express business volume [1] - The revenue from express logistics grew by 14.4% year-on-year, and high-end express product revenue accelerated for two consecutive quarters [1] - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was 9.79 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 12.49%, down 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Investments - The company continued strategic investments to enhance the competitiveness of timely products and adopted flexible pricing strategies to drive key e-commerce volume growth [1] - The company has initiated the "Gain Plan" to comprehensively optimize the volume structure, indicating a focus on improving future gross margins [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets amounting to 6.672 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 19.4 billion yuan, indicating a strong cash flow position [2] - The company announced an increase in the share repurchase program from 5-10 billion yuan to 15-30 billion yuan, enhancing shareholder returns [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 10.812 billion yuan, 12.286 billion yuan, and 13.920 billion yuan for 2025E-2027E, reflecting growth rates of 6.3%, 13.6%, and 13.3% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating further recovery in volume growth and performance [2]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 顺丰控股(002352) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 顺丰控股（002352.SZ）深度分析：国 内业务稳步增长，国际业务打开空间 顺丰控股（002352.SZ）价值分析：中 短期业绩维持相对高增，长期价值空 间可期 顺丰控股（002352.SZ）点评：公司发 布中期及特别分红，看好公司价值提 升 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 顺丰控股（002352.SZ）2025 年三季报点 评：Q3 盈利短期波动，积极回购彰显信心 [Table_Repo ...