2025 年 12 月 19 日 期指：宽松预期加持，偏强震荡 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4552.8 | ↓0.59 | | 3821 | | | | | | IF2512 | 4550.4 | ↓0.73 | -2.39 | 732.2 | 53558 | ↓31440 | 37690 | ↓24245 | | IF2601 | 4531.2 | ↓0.73 | -21.59 | 413.4 | 30353 | ↑1909 | 54550 | ↑8789 | | IF2603 | 4505 | ↓0.68 | -47.79 | 678.4 | 50112 | ↓11081 | 150187 | ↑6425 | | IF2606 | 4455.4 | ↓0.70 | -97.39 | 160.4 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower but the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive, closing up by 0.16% at 3876.40 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.85% to 13111.78 points and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.81% to 3118.30 points [1][2] - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.06 trillion yuan, with over 3600 stocks experiencing gains [1][2] Group 2 - In terms of sector performance, commercial aerospace concept stocks were notably active, while sectors such as 6G, SPD, gold, duty-free shops, and healthcare payment reform showed strength [3] - Conversely, sectors including stablecoins, photovoltaic, stock trading software, computing hardware, and AI mobile phone themes weakened [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points, indicating a bullish market sentiment with significant gains in various sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and electric power [2][3]. - The total market turnover reached 1.43 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day, with 2052 stocks rising and 3215 stocks declining [3]. Sector Performance - Non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and non-bank financial sectors experienced notable gains, while banking, advanced packaging, chips, and retail sectors faced declines [3][19]. - The stock prices of brokerage firms surged, with Huazheng Securities, State Grid Yingda, and Haide Co. hitting the daily limit, reflecting strong performance in the non-bank financial sector [7][10]. Notable Stocks - Copper Crown Copper Foil saw a significant increase of 20.01%, closing at 39.89 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 330.69 billion yuan [15][16]. - Electric power stocks also performed well, with Shanghai Electric reaching a peak price of 30.14 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of 850.31 billion yuan [15][16]. Regulatory Developments - The National Energy Administration emphasized the importance of advancing the national unified electricity market and improving market rules, which may positively impact the electric power sector [18]. - Recent reforms in Fujian Province aim to promote the marketization of renewable energy pricing, which could enhance the growth of the renewable energy market [18]. Banking Sector - The banking sector experienced a collective downturn, with 41 out of 42 bank stocks declining, indicating potential challenges in this sector [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Huaxia Financial Technology ETF (516100) showing strong performance and attracting substantial capital inflows [3] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 22, major indices surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points, driven by the chip sector [3] - The Huaxia Financial Technology ETF (516100) saw a 2.26% increase, with a cumulative rise of 10.87% over the past week, leading its sector [3] - The ETF has recorded a total capital inflow of 220 million yuan over the past four days [3] Group 2: Historical Performance of Huaxia Financial Technology ETF - Since its inception, the ETF's highest single-month return was 55.18%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and a maximum cumulative increase of 110.62% [3] - The average monthly return during rising months is 9.77%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 66.67% [3] - The probability of profitability over a three-year holding period is 80.37% [3] - Over the past six months, the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 2.35%, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [3] Group 3: Top Holdings - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 51.26% of the index [3] - The top ten stocks include Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, Hengsheng Electronics, Runhe Software, and others, with varying weightings [5]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.01% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.37% [1] - The overall market saw 2,237 stocks rising, 1,031 remaining flat, and 2,151 declining [2] Sector Performance - Popular sectors experienced adjustments, with stock trading software, fiberglass, and GPU concepts showing significant declines [1] - Conversely, the rare earth, machinery, and media sectors performed well [1] Company Highlights - China Shipbuilding Industry Company resumed trading with a high opening, gaining over 6% [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.26%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.24% [3] - Pharmaceutical stocks remained active, with Rongchang Bio rising nearly 5% after reaching a licensing agreement with Santen China for RC28-E injection [3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [5] - A total of 114.6 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature today [5] Currency Exchange - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was set at 7.1359, depreciating by 37 basis points [6]