一、稀土巨头的阳谋与散户的困局 欧洲稀土巨头索尔维最近干了件大事。他们不仅跟美国两家磁铁制造商签了供应协议，还要扩建法国工厂。这事儿放在全球供应链重构的背景下，简直就是 一记重拳。但有意思的是，当我打开股吧论坛，发现大多数人还在争论明天大盘是涨是跌。 菲利普·凯伦这个老狐狸说得直白："美国客户已经准备好签合同了。"言下之意就是钱到位了。可咱们的散户朋友呢？还在为要不要补仓纠结得睡不着觉。 这让我想起十八年前刚接触量化系统时的自己——盯着分时图上的每一根波动线，活像个赌场里数牌的菜鸟。 二、牛市幻觉与真实世界的鸿沟 都说牛市来了猪都能飞，但现实是多数人连猪都不如。为什么？因为大多数人根本分不清什么是"看得见的机会"，什么是"抓得住的机会"。就像现在稀土概 念炒得火热，但真正能吃到肉的，早在一个月前就通过机构资金流向锁定了目标。 我见过太多人在牛市中赚过又吐回去的故事。上周还有个老友炫耀他抓到了涨停板，结果这周就哭诉"刚解套又套牢"。问题出在哪？他们总把K线图当圣 经，却不知道机构早就在量化数据里留下了蛛丝马迹。 | ∞ 机构库存 高度活跃: 增加 | LULL LLL LLL LLL P | | | " | | ...

Group 1 - The rare earth sector showed mixed performance on Friday, with MP Materials (MP.US) rising over 5.7% and Energy Fuels (UUUU.US) increasing by 1% [1] - Conversely, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) experienced a decline of more than 1.6%, while NioCorp Developments (NB.US) fell over 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector experienced a significant rally on the 30th, with notable stock price increases among various companies, indicating a potential recovery in the market despite ongoing challenges [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiuling Technology surged over 14%, while Zhongke Magnetic Materials and Benlang New Materials rose more than 7%, and companies like Zhongkuang Resources, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Jinli Permanent Magnet saw increases exceeding 5% [1] - The current rare earth prices are approaching the cost lines for some enterprises, suggesting limited room for further declines, with expectations of a gradual stabilization in prices [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - On the demand side, the growth in production and sales of new energy vehicles is showing signs of marginal decline, while wind power installations are expected to release potential [1] - Recent air conditioning production data indicates that future growth rates will remain sluggish, and the decline in elevator production has narrowed, reflecting an overall positive trend in the industrial sector [1] - On the supply side, the industry landscape is becoming increasingly polarized, with leading companies gaining an advantage [1] Group 3: Valuation and Policy Impact - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by loose liquidity, industrial policies, and strategic value positioning of the rare earth sector [1] - New export restrictions on rare earths highlight their strategic value, supporting high industry valuations, although uncertainties from US-China tensions and export control policies may exert downward pressure on short-term demand and valuations [1] - Continuous performance improvement is necessary for valuation digestion, with the sustainability of rare earth magnetic material prices and industry profit margins heavily reliant on supply-demand improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector has seen a significant surge, with the mining ETF (561330) rising over 90% year-to-date, driven by recent export control policies and price adjustments from major rare earth companies [1][2]. Policy Impact - Recent announcements regarding export controls on rare earth items and technologies have been made, aiming to strengthen China's dominance in the global rare earth market and enhance its pricing power [2]. - The export control measures are expected to solidify China's position as a "rules power" in the rare earth sector, moving from being merely a resource-rich country [2]. Market Dynamics - Following the export controls implemented in April, rare earth prices rebounded due to factors such as easing US-China tariff tensions and increased demand [2]. - The domestic and international demand for rare earth materials is anticipated to grow, with a potential whitelist system expected to be introduced, which may lead to a new round of price increases [2]. ETF Performance - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index by over 10% year-to-date, attributed to a more concentrated selection of leading stocks [3]. - The mining ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has a higher concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten constituents accounting for 56.98% of the index [3]. Sector Composition - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths at 56.2%, compared to 52.5% in the CSI Nonferrous Index, indicating a stronger alignment with high-demand sectors [5]. Future Outlook - The copper supply remains tight, which is expected to support copper prices in the medium term [11]. - Gold is anticipated to see increased demand as a safe-haven asset due to global economic uncertainties, with long-term price support expected from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [11]. - The mining ETF (561330) currently has a scale of 813 million, ranking first among similar ETFs, providing superior liquidity and investment opportunities in the gold, copper, and rare earth sectors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market showed positive performance with significant increases in major indices, while certain sectors experienced declines and others saw strong gains [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33 points, up by 0.70%, with a trading volume of 968.216 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38 points, up by 1.95%, with a trading volume of 1287.814 billion [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3324.27 points, up by 2.93%, with a trading volume of 616.646 billion [1] Sector Analysis - Banking and liquor sectors experienced declines [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong gains [1] - Other sectors such as brokerage, coal, insurance, electricity, and oil also saw upward movements [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain stocks surged, while lithium mines, solid-state batteries, and rare earth concepts were active [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on October 28, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2]. - It also analyzes the performance of various futures on October 27, 2025, and gives the expected trend and price range of the main continuous contracts in October 2025 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strong and volatile on October 28, 2025. For example, IF2512 has resistance at 4715 and 4730 points, and support at 4684 and 4668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are likely to have wide - range fluctuations on October 28, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2512 will be weak and have wide - range fluctuations, while silver futures AG2512 will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [2][3]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. have different trends. For example, copper futures CU2512 will have wide - range fluctuations, and aluminum futures AL2512 will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, PVC, etc. will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [1][6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Palm oil will be weak and volatile, while soybean meal will be strong and volatile on October 28, 2025 [1][6][7]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - Various domestic and international macro - events are reported, such as government meetings, policy announcements, and economic data releases. For example, the State Council leaders' participation in important meetings, central bank's monetary policy operations, and national economic data like industrial enterprise profits and social logistics costs [8][9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - On October 27, 2025, international precious metals futures generally declined, and the prices of some base metals and energy futures had different changes. For example, COMEX gold futures fell 3.40%, and COMEX silver futures fell 3.61% [12]. - Some industry - related news is also reported, such as LBMA considering changing the frequency of silver inventory announcements and OPEC +'s plan to increase crude oil production [13]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, various stock index futures showed an upward trend, with support from moving averages. For example, IF2512 rose 1.24% (1.07% based on the closing price) [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The central bank conducted 3373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1483 billion yuan [36]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2512 had a slight decline on October 27, 2025, while silver futures AG2512 had a slight increase [41][48]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, etc. showed an upward trend on October 27, 2025, with support from moving averages [52][57]. - **Other Futures**: Other futures such as polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc. also had different trends on October 27, 2025 [69][73].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, Shenzhen Component down 0.58%, and ChiNext down 0.9% [3][4]. - The technology sector experienced a general pullback, particularly in storage chips and copper-clad laminate concepts, with Shenghong Technology's Q3 net profit slightly declining [4]. - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.28%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.45%, with most tech stocks, including Xiaopeng Motors, seeing gains of over 4% [5]. Sector Performance - The technology stocks faced significant declines, with Shenghong Technology dropping nearly 6% post-earnings [4]. - The Fujian sector remained active, with positive performance in rare earths, photovoltaics, and nuclear fusion concepts [4]. - Precious metals saw a general decline, with Shandong Gold and Zhaojin Mining both falling nearly 2% [5]. Notable Events - Baima Tea Industry had a strong debut, opening up 60% on its first trading day [5].

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has led to new highs in U.S. stock indices, with the Chinese concept index rising by 1.59% [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices reached new highs overnight, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.28%, the National Index up by 0.24%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.45% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Baidu and Alibaba gaining, while Xiaomi and NetEase experienced slight declines [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Automotive stocks, rare earth concept stocks, and photovoltaic stocks generally saw increases [1] - Spot gold prices fell by 3.05%, dropping below $3,990, leading to declines in gold stocks and non-ferrous metal stocks, with China Gold International down nearly 4% [1] Group 3: New Listings - Two new stocks were listed in the Hong Kong market, with Dipo Technology opening over 111% higher and Bama Tea opening over 60% higher on their first trading day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market may see an increase in risk appetite due to Sino - US talks, and the trading volume has rebounded. The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. [13][14] - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, some are expected to be in a narrow - range shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to be strong in the short - term. The trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. [17][19][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration director Li Yunze, and CSRC chairman Wu Qing made important statements. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, resume Treasury bond trading in the open market, and strengthen macro - prudential management. [8] - In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, with faster growth in high - tech and equipment manufacturing, and significant acceleration in the profits of private and foreign - funded enterprises. [8] - The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Foreign Investor System" and the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", which are expected to enhance the attractiveness of foreign capital and improve the protection of investors. [9] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market rose on Monday, and Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The trading volume has rebounded, and the monetary policy is expected to be loosened. [13] Treasury Bond Futures - The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened, and bonds still have upward momentum. Although the bond market was suppressed in the morning due to the increase in risk appetite, the central bank's decision to restart bond - buying led to a significant decline in bond yields. [15] Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short - term, the market may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. In the medium - term, it will maintain a volatile trend. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and policies at the end of the year. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. The supply of molten iron remains high, and the prices of raw materials are volatile. [17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Pay attention to production inspections at coal mines and changes in molten iron output. The supply may shrink in the short - term, and the demand is supported, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season may limit the upward space. [19] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to reverse in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies. The prices of ferroalloys were affected by the strong performance of the black market and macro - sentiment, and the silicon iron price was more volatile due to the decline in thermal coal prices. [20][21] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short - term short positions can take profits. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the supply has declined. The new capacity of glass needs time to be released, and the mid - stream inventory is high. [22] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see. The market sentiment is boosted by factors such as interest rate cuts and Sino - US talks, but the domestic market may follow the upward trend weakly. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large. [24] Zinc - Hold short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the spot trading is light. The import of refined zinc has decreased significantly. The domestic and international market logics are different, and the zinc price has shown a downward resonance since October. [25] Lithium Carbonate - It will be in a strong and volatile state in the short - term. The demand is strong, and the supply is close to the peak. The current supply - demand situation drives the price upward. [26] Industrial Silicon - It will fluctuate weakly in a range. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Although there is a pressure on supply in reality, the supply and demand are in a loose balance considering the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season. [27][29] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price supports the lower limit, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies. There is no strong driving force for upward or downward movement. [30] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies with caution. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. Although Sino - US trade relations may bring some fluctuations, the actual demand change needs further observation. [32] Sugar - Short positions can be rolled or wait and see. The global sugar market is in surplus, and the long - term demand is worrying. The domestic supply pressure is gradually increasing, but the cost supports the price. [34] Eggs - Trade according to the volatile strategy. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short in the short - term. The egg - laying hen industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures are strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited. [37] Apples - The price will fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants has increased. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants. [39] Corn - Be cautious and short on near - month contracts, and consider going long on far - month contracts. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure in the northeast is still accumulating. The possible release of policy wheat may have a substitution impact on corn. [40] Red Dates - Wait and see. The market price is stable, but the opening price is expected to decline, leading to a significant decline in the futures price. [41] Pigs - Wait and see in the short - term. The supply - demand situation is deadlocked, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises at the end of the month. [41] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and the oil price is likely to fall. Although the price has rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US macro - expectations, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed. [43] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply. [44] Plastics - It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the upstream profit has slightly recovered after the recent rebound, with limited upward momentum. [45] Rubber - There is no obvious trend, and it is mainly in a shock state. Short - term double - selling strategies or short - term long - buying on pullbacks can be considered. [47] Methanol - Adopt a volatile strategy and wait for the opportunity to go long in small positions after the rebound driver appears. The market is in a game around factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods, and the supply pressure is large, but there are also some positive factors. [48] Caustic Soda - Adopt a volatile strategy. Although the spot price is weak, there is cost support, and the weak performance of alumina suppresses the futures price. [49] Asphalt - The price trend is strong. The oil price has no main - line logic, and the later focus is on the concern about raw materials caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing at a normal rate. [50] Printing Paper - It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season. In the short - term, the fundamental situation has no obvious change, and some option strategies can be considered. [52] Polyester Industry Chain - Consider going long in small positions on dips in the short - term. The market sentiment has been boosted by the improvement of the macro - environment and news. The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. have different changes. [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand for the blending oil market may weaken, and the profit of PDH has recovered. The Sino - US trade negotiation may affect the price. [54] Pulp - Observe the inventory reduction at ports and spot trading. If the spot price is stable, long positions can be established in the far - month 01 contract in small positions. [55] Logs - Be cautious when shorting. After the rebound, short positions can be established in small positions. The import cost may decrease, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weakening. [56] Urea - Adopt a weakly volatile strategy. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated compared with the previous period. [56] Synthetic Rubber - The short - term trend is weak. Be cautious when shorting on sharp drops, and consider selling call options on rebounds. [57]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant rally on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, driven by strong performance in technology stocks and a surge in storage chip concepts [1] - Positive market sentiment is attributed to favorable news regarding US-China trade negotiations, continued substantial growth in industrial profits, and breakthroughs in the photoresist sector [1] - Sectors such as rare earths and cross-strait integration saw significant gains, while the Hainan, education, and oil and gas sectors declined, and the lithium battery supply chain showed weak performance [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced an optimization plan for the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system on the evening of October 27, aiming to enhance the attractiveness of the system for long-term foreign capital [4] - The plan includes specific measures to optimize access management, facilitate investment operations, expand investment scope, clarify policy expectations, and strengthen service support [4] - The implementation of a "one-stop" approval process for QFII qualifications and a "green channel" for allocation-type foreign capital is expected to boost foreign investor confidence in the A-share market [4]