1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Environment**: Domestic policy signals are released, leading to a positive sentiment. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, improving market sentiment [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the East China region, supply - demand fluctuations are relatively limited this week, with no planned device maintenance and sufficient supply. The off - season continues as non - aluminum demand shows no significant improvement. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas of Shandong Province remains at a low level [4]. - **Overall Logic**: Caustic soda has strong cost support at the bottom. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the market sentiment to strengthen. However, if the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, beware of the risk of a decline [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the caustic soda 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2750 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda remained stable. The basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the prices of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, as well as the prices of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong and the northwest, were presented. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 1.19% to 830 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.19% to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased by 7.26% to 3250 yuan/ton. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased by 33.33% to - 400 yuan/ton, and the price of alumina increased by 1.75% to 3195 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: Data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, and PVC from July 2024 to July 2025 were presented, along with the caustic soda futures closing price and the number of warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate - **Current Situation**: From January to July 2025, data on the weekly production, operating rate, and device loss of caustic soda were presented. In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average operating rate of 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased, while that in Central China decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased to 87.6%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [20][22]. - **Maintenance Plan**: There are planned device maintenance in the Northwest this week. Some enterprises in East China, North China, Northeast China, and Southwest China have maintenance plans in August [22][23]. 3.2.2 Downstream: Alumina - **Supply Situation**: In the current week, the supply of the alumina market decreased slightly. Due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in an alumina plant in the Southwest, the supply shortage in the South intensified, while the supply in the North was relatively loose. As of July 24, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [25]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: Data on the weekly operating rate and industry cost - profit of alumina from January to December 2018 - 2025 were presented [26]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 408,400 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. The storage capacity ratio was 24.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. Except for the Northwest and Central China, the storage capacity ratios in other regions increased [30]. - **Regional Inventory**: In North China, inventory increased due to high - price downstream resistance and increased supply. In South China, inventory rebounded as the main factory resumed full - load operation. In Central China, inventory decreased as some enterprises' sales improved. In East China, inventory increased due to the off - season of non - aluminum demand and general export orders. In the Northwest, inventory decreased as downstream procurement enthusiasm increased. In Southwest China, inventory increased slightly as enterprises maintained production and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - **Price**: As of July 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased, with a weekly average price of - 400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%. The demand for liquid chlorine decreased due to the non - recovery of downstream methane devices in Liaocheng and the shutdown of chlorine - consuming downstream devices in Zibo [33]. - **PVC Operating Rate**: As of July 25, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be 76.86%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [33]. - **Profit**: In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 136 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.62%. Although the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased and the liquid chlorine subsidy decreased, the overall chlor - alkali profit showed an upward trend [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of the non - ferrous metal industry, providing some support to the market. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts still needs to be observed [4]. - In the supply - demand aspect, the maintenance devices in the East China region are gradually resuming this week, with abundant supply. The off - season of non - aluminum demand continues, and the market lacks substantial positive drivers. After the price increase of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, and the shipment slows down. After the previous maintenance devices resume production one after another, the supply increases [4]. - There is strong cost support below for caustic soda. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the collective strengthening of market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price can be synchronized with the performance of futures. Once the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, be vigilant against the risk of decline [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda rebounded, and the basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened [9][12]. - From July 11 - 17, 2025, in the chlor - alkali industry chain, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 840 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44%; the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda dropped from 1370 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%; the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased from 3030 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66%; the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 300 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.45%; the price of alumina in Shandong decreased from 3140 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% [18]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures' active contracts compared with soda ash, alumina, and PVC futures' active contracts, as well as the relationship between the number of caustic soda futures' warehouse receipts and the continuous closing price [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - Production and Operating Rate: From July 11 - 17, 2025, the average operating rate of China's sample enterprises with a caustic soda production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased. Longzhong estimates that the operating rate of caustic soda this week will be around 84.7%, and the weekly output will be around 829,600 tons [22]. - Enterprise Maintenance: The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple enterprises in different regions, including the maintenance capacity, maintenance start date, and expected restart date [23]. 3.2.2 Downstream - Alumina - As of July 17, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating production capacity was 93.2 million tons. The supply change of alumina was limited during the week. Some enterprises' roasting furnaces completed maintenance, while some were still under maintenance, resulting in a temporary supply shortage in some areas, which supported the price [25]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 383,900 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.78%. The inventory ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 22.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. Except for the Northeast and South China regions where the inventory ratio decreased month - on - month, the inventory ratios in North China, Central China, East China, Northwest China, and Southwest China increased month - on - month [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - As of July 17, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first rose and then fell, with a weekly average price of - 407 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2%. As of July 18, 2025, China's PVC operating rate was 77.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. It is expected that the PVC operating rate this week will be 79.65%, and the overall supply will increase next week [34]. - During the week of July 11 - 17, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 130 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend [35].