1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Environment**: Domestic policy signals are released, leading to a positive sentiment. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, improving market sentiment [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the East China region, supply - demand fluctuations are relatively limited this week, with no planned device maintenance and sufficient supply. The off - season continues as non - aluminum demand shows no significant improvement. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas of Shandong Province remains at a low level [4]. - **Overall Logic**: Caustic soda has strong cost support at the bottom. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the market sentiment to strengthen. However, if the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, beware of the risk of a decline [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the caustic soda 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2750 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda remained stable. The basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the prices of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, as well as the prices of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong and the northwest, were presented. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 1.19% to 830 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.19% to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased by 7.26% to 3250 yuan/ton. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased by 33.33% to - 400 yuan/ton, and the price of alumina increased by 1.75% to 3195 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: Data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, and PVC from July 2024 to July 2025 were presented, along with the caustic soda futures closing price and the number of warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate - **Current Situation**: From January to July 2025, data on the weekly production, operating rate, and device loss of caustic soda were presented. In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average operating rate of 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased, while that in Central China decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased to 87.6%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [20][22]. - **Maintenance Plan**: There are planned device maintenance in the Northwest this week. Some enterprises in East China, North China, Northeast China, and Southwest China have maintenance plans in August [22][23]. 3.2.2 Downstream: Alumina - **Supply Situation**: In the current week, the supply of the alumina market decreased slightly. Due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in an alumina plant in the Southwest, the supply shortage in the South intensified, while the supply in the North was relatively loose. As of July 24, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [25]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: Data on the weekly operating rate and industry cost - profit of alumina from January to December 2018 - 2025 were presented [26]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 408,400 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. The storage capacity ratio was 24.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. Except for the Northwest and Central China, the storage capacity ratios in other regions increased [30]. - **Regional Inventory**: In North China, inventory increased due to high - price downstream resistance and increased supply. In South China, inventory rebounded as the main factory resumed full - load operation. In Central China, inventory decreased as some enterprises' sales improved. In East China, inventory increased due to the off - season of non - aluminum demand and general export orders. In the Northwest, inventory decreased as downstream procurement enthusiasm increased. In Southwest China, inventory increased slightly as enterprises maintained production and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - **Price**: As of July 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased, with a weekly average price of - 400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%. The demand for liquid chlorine decreased due to the non - recovery of downstream methane devices in Liaocheng and the shutdown of chlorine - consuming downstream devices in Zibo [33]. - **PVC Operating Rate**: As of July 25, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be 76.86%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [33]. - **Profit**: In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 136 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.62%. Although the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased and the liquid chlorine subsidy decreased, the overall chlor - alkali profit showed an upward trend [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of the non - ferrous metal industry, providing some support to the market. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts still needs to be observed [4]. - In the supply - demand aspect, the maintenance devices in the East China region are gradually resuming this week, with abundant supply. The off - season of non - aluminum demand continues, and the market lacks substantial positive drivers. After the price increase of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, and the shipment slows down. After the previous maintenance devices resume production one after another, the supply increases [4]. - There is strong cost support below for caustic soda. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the collective strengthening of market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price can be synchronized with the performance of futures. Once the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, be vigilant against the risk of decline [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda rebounded, and the basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened [9][12]. - From July 11 - 17, 2025, in the chlor - alkali industry chain, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 840 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44%; the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda dropped from 1370 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%; the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased from 3030 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66%; the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 300 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.45%; the price of alumina in Shandong decreased from 3140 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% [18]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures' active contracts compared with soda ash, alumina, and PVC futures' active contracts, as well as the relationship between the number of caustic soda futures' warehouse receipts and the continuous closing price [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - Production and Operating Rate: From July 11 - 17, 2025, the average operating rate of China's sample enterprises with a caustic soda production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased. Longzhong estimates that the operating rate of caustic soda this week will be around 84.7%, and the weekly output will be around 829,600 tons [22]. - Enterprise Maintenance: The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple enterprises in different regions, including the maintenance capacity, maintenance start date, and expected restart date [23]. 3.2.2 Downstream - Alumina - As of July 17, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating production capacity was 93.2 million tons. The supply change of alumina was limited during the week. Some enterprises' roasting furnaces completed maintenance, while some were still under maintenance, resulting in a temporary supply shortage in some areas, which supported the price [25]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 383,900 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.78%. The inventory ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 22.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. Except for the Northeast and South China regions where the inventory ratio decreased month - on - month, the inventory ratios in North China, Central China, East China, Northwest China, and Southwest China increased month - on - month [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - As of July 17, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first rose and then fell, with a weekly average price of - 407 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2%. As of July 18, 2025, China's PVC operating rate was 77.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. It is expected that the PVC operating rate this week will be 79.65%, and the overall supply will increase next week [34]. - During the week of July 11 - 17, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 130 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the maintenance of liquid caustic soda enterprises in Shandong will increase, leading to a decline in supply. The output of alumina enterprises in Shandong is steadily recovering, and the liquid caustic soda receipts of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong continue to grow, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected that these enterprises can reserve a certain amount of liquid caustic soda safety stock during the maintenance of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises for normal alumina production. Before the holiday, due to the low futures price, no effective warehouse receipts were formed. The near - month SH06 contract rose significantly, but the main SH2509 contract lacked follow - up momentum. The market is in an environment of strong reality and weak expectation. Against the backdrop of the overall weakness of bulk commodity futures, this is understandable. Although there are investors concerned about the chlor - alkali cost, and the cost is likely to decline considering the significant drop in coal and grid electricity prices, for caustic soda futures, the far - month contracts can factor in cost issues, while the near - month contracts should focus more on supply - demand factors rather than cost disturbances. Relevant contract arbitrage opportunities can be seized [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chlor - Alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a 1.6% week - on - week increase. The restart or reduction in the Northwest, North, and East China slightly increased the load, while the new maintenance and production - reduction devices in Central and South China decreased the load. The capacity utilization rate in Shandong increased by 1.8% to 89.7%. This week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will be around 84.7%, with a weekly output of about 819,600 tons [8]. - **Demand**: - **Alumina**: In Shandong, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers has been increasing since April 13, reaching 840 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,625 yuan/ton. Currently, alumina enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle, and the short - term consumption of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain strong [8]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remains around 80.17%, with a slight week - on - week decrease in output. The demand side has not improved, as the downstream human cotton yarn market has a general trading atmosphere, with prices remaining stagnant. Downstream manufacturers have a certain risk - aversion sentiment and weak inventory - building willingness, mostly purchasing on a just - in - time basis [8]. - **Printing and dyeing**: The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 62.68%, a 0.55% week - on - week decrease. Some printing and dyeing factories in Shaoxing have holiday plans around the Dragon Boat Festival, adjusting their schedules according to order volumes. The core issue is the decline in upstream weaving orders, which has led to insufficient white fabric storage in dyeing factories and a passive reduction in the operating rate of dye vats [8]. - **Export**: In April, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 335,800 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more in China was 392,600 wet tons, a 2.08% week - on - week decrease and a 10.22% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 23.28%, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The storage capacity ratios in Northeast and South China increased week - on - week, while those in Northwest, North, Central, and East China decreased, and that in Southwest China remained stable. Overall, the inventory showed a certain decline [8]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and raw salt in Shandong remained stable, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 601 yuan/ton, reaching a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Valuation**: - **9 - 1 spread**: The strong spot price has attracted many investors to participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread, causing the SH2509 contract to generally weaken [8]. - **Basis**: The current caustic soda futures ignore the strong spot reality and focus on the expectation of weak future demand. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and it is not recommended to carry out selling hedging operations at the current basis [8]. 3.2 Chlor - Alkali Prices - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Prices**: Data on the minimum ex - factory converted 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong from 2022 to 2025 are presented [13]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Prices and Export Caustic Soda Prices**: Data on the prices of flake caustic soda in Shandong and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025, and the FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 are provided [16]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis**: Data on the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2023 to 2025, the price of the main caustic soda contract from 2023 to 2025, and the spread between the SH09 and SH01 contracts in 2024 and 2025 are shown [19]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Prices**: Data on the price of Shandong sea salt from 2021 to 2025, the CIF price of Indian sea salt first - grade industrial salt from 2021 to 2025, and the ex - warehouse price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5000K from 2021 to 2025 are given [22][23]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply, Inventory, and Profit**: Data on the caustic soda output from 2021 to 2025, the liquid caustic soda inventory from 2021 to 2025, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises from 2022 to 2025 are presented [28]. - **Caustic Soda Maintenance**: Information on the maintenance status of caustic soda production facilities last week, including the regions, enterprise names, caustic soda production capacities, and maintenance details, as well as the planned future maintenance of caustic soda production facilities, is provided [30]. 3.4 Chlor - Alkali Demand - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Alumina**: Data on the price of alumina in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of alumina in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, and the alumina output in China in 2024 and 2025 are shown [34]. - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: Data on the weekly output of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the factory inventory of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China from 2021 to 2025, and the price of viscose staple fiber (1.2D*38mm) in East China from 2021 to 2025 are presented [37]. - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Pulp and Paper**: Data on the paper product output from 2022 to 2025 and the available inventory days of paper products in upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 are provided [40]. - **Caustic Soda Consumption - Export**: Data on the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and total caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the cumulative export volume and year - on - year growth rate of caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, are shown [43]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream - Propylene Oxide**: Data on the price of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the output of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025, and the operating rate of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025 are presented [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PVC shows a relatively strong trend, but there will still be pressure in the later stage. Macro - level factors like the Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush are positive, but from a fundamental perspective, the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease, and high - price transactions are slowing down with a significantly weakened basis [1]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The high - production situation persists due to strong demand and high profits in the caustic soda market in 2025, the “subsidizing chlorine with alkali” model in the chlor - alkali industry, and upcoming new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can reduce inventory quickly in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand related to real - estate downstream PVC products is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents PVC Fundamental Data - The 09 - contract futures price is 4986, the East China spot price is 4780, the basis is - 206, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 98 [1]. Spot Market - Domestic PVC spot prices have been raised. Positive macro - expectations and the rise of industrial products have boosted the market atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the futures price. However, demand is cautious, high - price transactions have slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode in the short term. The market supply remains high, and the impact of policies on demand is yet to be observed. In the East China region, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4700 - 4880 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4900 - 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Situation Analysis - **Macro - level**: The Sino - US phased reconciliation is positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [1]. - **Fundamental level**: Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. High - price transactions are slowing down, and the basis has weakened significantly [1]. High - Production Pattern - In the first quarter of 2025, the maintenance volume of PVC was low, and the high - production pattern continued. The strong demand for caustic soda in 2025 supports high profits, and the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali to subsidize chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. Moreover, there will be more new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. High - Inventory Pressure - In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce inventory in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2][3]