瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 焦煤市场周报 扰动下降多空反复，盘面延续震荡运行 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量185.6万吨，环比增15.6万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产26.0万吨，环比增0.3万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1849.57万吨，环比下降56.94万吨，同比增加1.62%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1366，折盘面1146 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利35元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率60.17%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年增加54.11个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量240.55万吨，环比上周增加11.71万吨，同比去年增加17.17万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side provides support, and the price of rebar futures continues to be strong. The RB2510 contract should be cautious when chasing high prices, but can still consider buying on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control. It is recommended to continue holding the bought call options [2][9][58] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton (+209), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3470 yuan/ton (+180). Rebar production increased to 211.96 million tons (+2.9). Apparent demand rebounded to 216.58 million tons (+10.41, -10.44% year - on - year). Total rebar inventory was 538.64 million tons (-4.62, -221.6 million tons year - on - year). The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from last week and 48.49 percentage points from last year [7] 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, and Trump abandoned the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission advocated against "involution - style" competition, and a China - US economic and trade meeting was scheduled. **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production increased, capacity utilization was 46.47%, and the EAF steel operating rate continued to rise. Downstream procurement increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose. **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore prices pulled back after reaching a high, port inventory increased, and there was profit - taking pressure on long positions. Coking coal supply was expected to shrink, and short - covering and long - adding led to consecutive daily limit up in futures prices. **Technical - aspect**: The RB2510 contract remained strong, with a bullish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages and an expanding red column in the MACD indicator [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the RB2510 contract continued to rise and was stronger than the RB2601 contract. On the 25th, the spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On July 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipts were 88027 tons, up 596 tons week - on - week. The net long position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 8836 lots, an increase of 9869 lots from last week [20] 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On July 25, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mm HRB400 was 3470 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3453 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price, and on the 25th, the basis was 114 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week [26] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Furnace Charge Prices - On July 25, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/dry ton, up 15 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [30] 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14395.68 million tons, an increase of 14.17 million tons week - on - week [35] 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71%), daily coke output was 51.92 (+0.51), coke inventory was 50.12 (-5.43), total coking coal inventory was 841.21 (+51.02), and the available days of coking coal were 12.2 days (+0.62 days) [38] 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply - side - **Crude Steel Production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. **Rebar Production**: On July 24, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material enterprises was 211.96 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week. **EAF Steel Operating Rate**: On July 25, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 72.02%, up 6.94 percentage points week - on - week. **Rebar Inventory**: On July 24, the in - plant inventory of rebar was 165.67 million tons, a decrease of 7.43 million tons from last week, and the social inventory in 35 major cities was 372.97 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from last week [43][46][49][52] 4.2 Demand - side - From January to June 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 4.6% year - on - year [55] 5. Option Market - The cost side is supported by the continuous rise of coking coal, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the black series. It is recommended to continue holding the bought call options [58]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Date: June 3, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price Changes - **柳林主焦**: Latest price is 1150.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 150.00, and an annual decrease of 42.50% [2] - **原煤口岸库提价**: Latest price is 735.00, a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 25.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and an annual decrease of 44.94% [2] - **沙河驿蒙5**: Latest price is 1140.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 40.00, a monthly decrease of 90.00, and an annual decrease of 38.38% [2] - **安泽主焦**: Latest price is 1180.00, a daily decrease of 20.00, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 120.00, and an annual decrease of 41.00% [2] - **Peak Downs**: Latest price is 207.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 3.50, a monthly increase of 3.50, and an annual decrease of 65.00 [2] - **Goonyella**: Latest price is 208.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 3.50, a monthly increase of 3.50, and an annual decrease of 64.00 [2] - **盘面05**: Latest price is 787.00, a daily decrease of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 49.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and an annual decrease of 56.40% [2] - **盘面09**: Latest price is 741.50, a daily decrease of 25.00, a weekly decrease of 59.00, a monthly decrease of 194.50, and an annual decrease of 56.74% [2] - **盘面01**: Latest price is 760.50, a daily decrease of 23.00, a weekly decrease of 57.00, a monthly decrease of 230.00, and an annual decrease of 58.60% [2] Group 3: Inventory Changes - **总库存**: Latest inventory is 4018.46, a weekly increase of 34.82, a monthly increase of 220.03, and an annual increase of 21.27% [2] - **煤矿库存**: Latest inventory is 473.03, a weekly increase of 25.50, a monthly increase of 114.51, and an annual increase of 83.09% [2] - **港口库存**: Latest inventory is 301.56, a weekly decrease of 4.53, a monthly decrease of 23.23, and an annual increase of 31.40% [2] - **钢厂焦煤库存**: Latest inventory is 798.75, a weekly increase of 7.54, a monthly increase of 16.27, and an annual increase of 5.61% [2] - **焦化焦煤库存**: Latest inventory is 865.73, a weekly decrease of 19.20, a monthly decrease of 103.23, and an annual decrease of 9.28% [2] Group 4: Other Indicators - **焦化产能利用率**: Latest utilization rate is 75.66, a weekly decrease of 0.21, a monthly increase of 0.10, and an annual increase of 4.75% [2] - **焦化焦炭库存**: Latest inventory is 87.30, a weekly increase of 0.09, a monthly decrease of 0.07, and an annual decrease of 0.25% [2] - **05基差**: Latest value is 164.22, a daily increase of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 9.16, a monthly decrease of 24.49, and an annual increase of 301.67 [2] - **09基差**: Latest value is 209.72, a daily increase of 25.00, a weekly increase of 0.84, a monthly increase of 70.01, and an annual decrease of 5.52 [2] - **01基差**: Latest value is 190.72, a daily increase of 23.00, a weekly decrease of 1.16, a monthly increase of 105.51, and an annual decrease of 2.13 [2] - **5 - 9价差**: Latest value is 45.50, a daily increase of 12.50, a weekly increase of 10.00, a monthly increase of 94.50, and an annual decrease of 0.50 [2] - **9 - 1价差**: Latest value is -19.00, a daily decrease of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly increase of 35.50, and an annual decrease of 0.85 [2] - **1 - 5价差**: Latest value is -26.50, a daily decrease of 10.50, a weekly decrease of 8.00, a monthly decrease of 130.00, and an annual decrease of 1.83 [2]