Core Insights - The coking coal prices in Handan market remained stable, with low-sulfur primary coking coal priced at 1580 CNY/ton and low-sulfur fat coking coal at 1590 CNY/ton, both being ex-factory prices inclusive of tax [1] - National coking coal prices showed variations, with prices in Shanxi Lüliang at 1650 CNY/ton and in Hebei Tangshan at 1615 CNY/ton, indicating a competitive market [2] - The futures market for coking coal saw the main contract closing at 1213.0 CNY/ton, down 3.81%, with a trading volume of 1,001,695 lots [2] Market Data - In October 2025, coal exports from North Queensland's three ports decreased by 7.24% month-on-month and 4.98% year-on-year, totaling 10,521,800 tons [3] - Mongolia's coal exports in October 2025 fell by 26.52% month-on-month but increased by 1.81% year-on-year, with a cumulative export of 6,973,430 tons from January to October 2025 [3] Industry Analysis - The fourth quarter is traditionally a period with a high incidence of coal mining accidents, leading to increased safety regulations and restrictions on coal production, which is expected to result in a year-on-year decline in coking coal output for November and December [4] - The anticipated winter stockpiling of raw materials is expected to provide strong support for coking coal prices, although steel demand remains uncertain, limiting the upward potential for raw materials [4] - Overall, the market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations and adjustments in the short term, awaiting new driving factors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is experiencing reduced disturbances with repeated long - short battles, and the futures price is expected to continue oscillating between 1100 - 1200 for the main contract. The market is affected by macro - policies, overseas events, and supply - demand dynamics. Macro - wise, policies like the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen and positive foreign trade data have an impact. Overseas, new railway construction in Russia and US employment data revisions are factors. On the supply - demand side, supply rebounds at the mine end while the utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and imports have a decreasing cumulative growth rate. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - 523 coking coal mines had a daily average raw coal output of 185.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.6 million tons [7]. - 314 independent coal washing plants had a daily refined coal output of 26.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons [7]. - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1849.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.94 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.62% [7]. - The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 refined coal was 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton [7]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [7]. - The daily average pig iron output was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Multiple districts in Shenzhen relaxed purchase restrictions; China's August exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month [8]. - Overseas: Russia launched a new railway with an annual coal transportation capacity of 50 million tons; the US non - farm employment was revised downward [8]. - Supply - demand: The impact of administrative production cuts at the beginning of the month subsided, mine supply rebounded, the utilization rate of independent coal washing plants decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months. Supply decreased, inventory decreased significantly week - on - week, and inventory was at a neutral level [8]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Strategy: Due to policy information disturbances in the macro - environment, the futures price fluctuated between long and short positions. It is recommended to treat the main coking coal contract as oscillating between 1100 - 1200 [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - As of September 12, the coking coal futures contract open interest was 881,900 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 18,875 lots [14]. - As of September 12, the spread between the coking coal 5 - 1 contracts was 81.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.0 points [14]. - As of September 12, the number of coking coal registered warehouse receipts was 500 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1000 lots [18]. - As of September 12, the ratio of the January futures contracts of coke to coking coal was 1.42, unchanged from the previous week [18]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of September 11, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (No. 5, Ganqimaodu Port) was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [26]. - As of September 12, the coking coal basis was 5.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 80.5 points [26]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Industry Supply - This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 82.7%, a week - on - week increase of 6.9%. The daily average raw coal output was 185.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.6 million tons; raw coal inventory was 473.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons; the daily average refined coal output was 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons; refined coal inventory was 254.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.6 million tons [30]. - This week, the utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47%. The daily refined coal output was 26.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons; refined coal inventory was 289.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.4 million tons [30]. 3.3.2 Industry Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1849.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.94 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.62% [34]. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises was 752.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 10.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86 days [34]. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 793.73 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 12.81 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [49]. 3.3.3 Downstream Demand - This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [43]. - This week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [43]. 3.3.4 Upstream Supply - In July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the daily average output was 12.29 million tons. From January to July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [53]. - In July 2025, China's coking coal output was 40.8938 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 tons [53]. - In 2024, China imported 540 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, setting a new record high, including 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62% [55]. - From January to July 2025, China imported 62.445 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. The main import sources were Mongolia, Russia, Canada, and Australia, with Mongolia accounting for about 47% [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side provides support, and the price of rebar futures continues to be strong. The RB2510 contract should be cautious when chasing high prices, but can still consider buying on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control. It is recommended to continue holding the bought call options [2][9][58] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton (+209), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3470 yuan/ton (+180). Rebar production increased to 211.96 million tons (+2.9). Apparent demand rebounded to 216.58 million tons (+10.41, -10.44% year - on - year). Total rebar inventory was 538.64 million tons (-4.62, -221.6 million tons year - on - year). The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from last week and 48.49 percentage points from last year [7] 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, and Trump abandoned the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission advocated against "involution - style" competition, and a China - US economic and trade meeting was scheduled. **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production increased, capacity utilization was 46.47%, and the EAF steel operating rate continued to rise. Downstream procurement increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose. **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore prices pulled back after reaching a high, port inventory increased, and there was profit - taking pressure on long positions. Coking coal supply was expected to shrink, and short - covering and long - adding led to consecutive daily limit up in futures prices. **Technical - aspect**: The RB2510 contract remained strong, with a bullish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages and an expanding red column in the MACD indicator [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the RB2510 contract continued to rise and was stronger than the RB2601 contract. On the 25th, the spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On July 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipts were 88027 tons, up 596 tons week - on - week. The net long position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 8836 lots, an increase of 9869 lots from last week [20] 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On July 25, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mm HRB400 was 3470 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3453 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price, and on the 25th, the basis was 114 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week [26] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Furnace Charge Prices - On July 25, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/dry ton, up 15 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [30] 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14395.68 million tons, an increase of 14.17 million tons week - on - week [35] 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71%), daily coke output was 51.92 (+0.51), coke inventory was 50.12 (-5.43), total coking coal inventory was 841.21 (+51.02), and the available days of coking coal were 12.2 days (+0.62 days) [38] 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply - side - **Crude Steel Production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. **Rebar Production**: On July 24, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material enterprises was 211.96 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week. **EAF Steel Operating Rate**: On July 25, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 72.02%, up 6.94 percentage points week - on - week. **Rebar Inventory**: On July 24, the in - plant inventory of rebar was 165.67 million tons, a decrease of 7.43 million tons from last week, and the social inventory in 35 major cities was 372.97 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from last week [43][46][49][52] 4.2 Demand - side - From January to June 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 4.6% year - on - year [55] 5. Option Market - The cost side is supported by the continuous rise of coking coal, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the black series. It is recommended to continue holding the bought call options [58]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Date: June 3, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price Changes - **柳林主焦**: Latest price is 1150.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 150.00, and an annual decrease of 42.50% [2] - **原煤口岸库提价**: Latest price is 735.00, a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 25.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and an annual decrease of 44.94% [2] - **沙河驿蒙5**: Latest price is 1140.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 40.00, a monthly decrease of 90.00, and an annual decrease of 38.38% [2] - **安泽主焦**: Latest price is 1180.00, a daily decrease of 20.00, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 120.00, and an annual decrease of 41.00% [2] - **Peak Downs**: Latest price is 207.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 3.50, a monthly increase of 3.50, and an annual decrease of 65.00 [2] - **Goonyella**: Latest price is 208.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 3.50, a monthly increase of 3.50, and an annual decrease of 64.00 [2] - **盘面05**: Latest price is 787.00, a daily decrease of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 49.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and an annual decrease of 56.40% [2] - **盘面09**: Latest price is 741.50, a daily decrease of 25.00, a weekly decrease of 59.00, a monthly decrease of 194.50, and an annual decrease of 56.74% [2] - **盘面01**: Latest price is 760.50, a daily decrease of 23.00, a weekly decrease of 57.00, a monthly decrease of 230.00, and an annual decrease of 58.60% [2] Group 3: Inventory Changes - **总库存**: Latest inventory is 4018.46, a weekly increase of 34.82, a monthly increase of 220.03, and an annual increase of 21.27% [2] - **煤矿库存**: Latest inventory is 473.03, a weekly increase of 25.50, a monthly increase of 114.51, and an annual increase of 83.09% [2] - **港口库存**: Latest inventory is 301.56, a weekly decrease of 4.53, a monthly decrease of 23.23, and an annual increase of 31.40% [2] - **钢厂焦煤库存**: Latest inventory is 798.75, a weekly increase of 7.54, a monthly increase of 16.27, and an annual increase of 5.61% [2] - **焦化焦煤库存**: Latest inventory is 865.73, a weekly decrease of 19.20, a monthly decrease of 103.23, and an annual decrease of 9.28% [2] Group 4: Other Indicators - **焦化产能利用率**: Latest utilization rate is 75.66, a weekly decrease of 0.21, a monthly increase of 0.10, and an annual increase of 4.75% [2] - **焦化焦炭库存**: Latest inventory is 87.30, a weekly increase of 0.09, a monthly decrease of 0.07, and an annual decrease of 0.25% [2] - **05基差**: Latest value is 164.22, a daily increase of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 9.16, a monthly decrease of 24.49, and an annual increase of 301.67 [2] - **09基差**: Latest value is 209.72, a daily increase of 25.00, a weekly increase of 0.84, a monthly increase of 70.01, and an annual decrease of 5.52 [2] - **01基差**: Latest value is 190.72, a daily increase of 23.00, a weekly decrease of 1.16, a monthly increase of 105.51, and an annual decrease of 2.13 [2] - **5 - 9价差**: Latest value is 45.50, a daily increase of 12.50, a weekly increase of 10.00, a monthly increase of 94.50, and an annual decrease of 0.50 [2] - **9 - 1价差**: Latest value is -19.00, a daily decrease of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly increase of 35.50, and an annual decrease of 0.85 [2] - **1 - 5价差**: Latest value is -26.50, a daily decrease of 10.50, a weekly decrease of 8.00, a monthly decrease of 130.00, and an annual decrease of 1.83 [2]