瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 焦炭市场周报 二轮提降&原料下行，焦炭跟随成本下行 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 合约持仓量+1527手，焦炭月差+4个点 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，会议提到要做好岁末年初重要民生商品保供工作，关心困难群众生产生活，坚 决防范遏制重特大事故发生。根据几大煤炭主产区十五五规划建议，稳产稳供，做好产能接续，加强煤炭清洁高效利用几个特 点是政策核心方向。 2. 海外方面，美联储12月9日和10日举行议息会议，会议降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。全球大 多数投资银行预测，美联储将在2026年的两次降息中累计降息50个基点，且降息时间预计主要在上半年完成。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁水产量229.20，-3.10万吨，焦炭库存中性偏弱。利润方面，本期全国30家独立焦化 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Key Data Summary Coke Prices - **Shanxi Standard First - Wet Quenching**: The latest price is 1481.33, with a weekly increase of 54.61 and a monthly increase of 273.06, showing a year - on - year decrease of 14.82% [2] - **Hebei Standard First - Wet Quenching**: The latest price is 1725.00, with a weekly increase of 75.00 and a monthly increase of 295.00, showing a year - on - year decrease of 12.44% [2] - **Shandong Standard First - Dry Quenching**: The latest price is 1660.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00 and a monthly increase of 275.00, showing a year - on - year decrease of 17.41% [2] - **Jiangsu Standard First - Dry Quenching**: The latest price is 1700.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00 and a monthly increase of 275.00, showing a year - on - year decrease of 17.07% [2] - **Inner Mongolia Second - Grade**: The latest price is 1180.00, with a weekly increase of 50.00 and a monthly increase of 250.00, showing a year - on - year decrease of 15.71% [2] Inventory Data - **Coking Plant Inventory**: The latest inventory is 39.31, with a weekly decrease of 5.32 and a monthly decrease of 16.24, showing a year - on - year decrease of 13.98% [2] - **Port Inventory**: The latest inventory is 215.11, with a weekly decrease of 3.04 and a monthly increase of 16.00, showing a year - on - year increase of 14.29% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The latest inventory is 609.80, with a weekly decrease of 9.48 and a monthly decrease of 29.19, showing a year - on - year increase of 14.24% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory Days**: The latest inventory days are 10.83, with a weekly decrease of 0.08 and a monthly decrease of 0.63, showing a year - on - year increase of 1.50% [2] Production - Related Data - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: The latest operating rate is 90.22, with a weekly increase of 0.13 and a monthly decrease of 0.67, showing a year - on - year increase of 3.68% [2] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Output**: The latest output is 240.66, with a weekly increase of 0.34 and a monthly decrease of 1.78, showing a year - on - year increase of 5.20% [2] - **Coking Capacity Utilization Rate**: The latest utilization rate is 73.75, with a weekly increase of 0.27 and a monthly increase of 1.03, showing a year - on - year increase of 1.12% [2] - **Daily Coke Output**: The latest output is 51.67, with a weekly decrease of 0.11 and a monthly decrease of 1.53, showing a year - on - year decrease of 3.78% [2] Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract 05**: The latest price is 1768, with a daily decrease of 40.00, a weekly decrease of 45.00, and a monthly increase of 22.00, showing a year - on - year decrease of 8.06% [2] - **Futures Contract 09**: The latest price is 1619, with a daily decrease of 26.50, a weekly decrease of 31.00, and a monthly decrease of 25.50, showing a year - on - year decrease of 10.97% [2] - **Futures Contract 01**: The latest price is 1680, with a daily decrease of 38.00, a weekly decrease of 41.00, and a monthly decrease of 19.00, showing a year - on - year decrease of 10.71% [2] - **05 Basis**: The latest basis is 13.00, with a daily increase of 40.00, a weekly increase of 45.00, and a monthly increase of 271.62, showing a year - on - year decrease of 106.01 [2] - **09 Basis**: The latest basis is 162.00, with a daily increase of 26.50, a weekly increase of 31.00, and a monthly increase of 319.12, showing a year - on - year decrease of 61.51 [2] - **01 Basis**: The latest basis is 101.00, with a daily increase of 38.00, a weekly increase of 41.00, and a monthly increase of 312.62, showing a year - on - year decrease of 59.51 [2] - **5 - 9 Spread**: The latest spread is - 88.00, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly increase of 4.00, and a monthly decrease of 41.00, showing a year - on - year decrease of 46.50 [2] - **9 - 1 Spread**: The latest spread is 149.00, with a daily decrease of 13.50, a weekly decrease of 14.00, and a monthly increase of 47.50, showing a year - on - year increase of 44.50 [2] - **1 - 5 Spread**: The latest spread is - 61.00, with a daily increase of 11.50, a weekly increase of 10.00, and a monthly decrease of 6.50, showing a year - on - year increase of 2.00 [2] Historical Price Charts - The report also includes historical price charts of coke in different regions such as Linfen, Lvliang, Rizhao Port, Changzhi, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port from 2021 to 2025, as well as charts related to coking capacity utilization, coke production, inventory, blast furnace capacity utilization, hot metal output, and coking profit [3][4][5]

8月11日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘红。其中，焦炭期货主力合约开盘报1652.5元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦炭主力最高触及1690.5元，下方探低1628.0元，涨幅达2.34%附近。 目前来看，焦炭行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦炭后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 华联期货表示，焦煤供应端扰动频繁，供应预期收缩，反内卷政策预期有所反复，提振市场情绪，此 外，双焦刚需较强，价格上涨后投机性需求增加，预计双焦偏强运行。 建信期货指出，近期焦炭、焦煤期货大幅回落后再度走强，但由于双焦现货市场滞后于期货市场而表现 为延续上涨，仅个别焦煤市场价格有所回落。考虑到焦煤现货价格明显上涨后焦化厂补库降温，钢厂则 在焦煤库存高位缓慢补库，推测焦炭、焦煤期货价格二次拉涨后持续走高的可能性不大，需注意偏强震 荡后再度回落的风险。 长江期货分析称，供应方面，焦炭五轮涨价落地，主流焦化企业盈利状况边际改善，带动开工节奏小幅 提升；但受原料煤价持续上涨影响，部分焦企成本压力未完全缓解，出现小幅限产现象，整体开工维持 平稳态势。需求方面，随着焦炭到货量的边际改善，钢厂库存压力略有缓解，补库行为以按需采 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side provides support, and the price of rebar futures continues to be strong. The RB2510 contract should be cautious when chasing high prices, but can still consider buying on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control. It is recommended to continue holding the bought call options [2][9][58] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton (+209), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3470 yuan/ton (+180). Rebar production increased to 211.96 million tons (+2.9). Apparent demand rebounded to 216.58 million tons (+10.41, -10.44% year - on - year). Total rebar inventory was 538.64 million tons (-4.62, -221.6 million tons year - on - year). The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from last week and 48.49 percentage points from last year [7] 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, and Trump abandoned the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission advocated against "involution - style" competition, and a China - US economic and trade meeting was scheduled. **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production increased, capacity utilization was 46.47%, and the EAF steel operating rate continued to rise. Downstream procurement increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose. **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore prices pulled back after reaching a high, port inventory increased, and there was profit - taking pressure on long positions. Coking coal supply was expected to shrink, and short - covering and long - adding led to consecutive daily limit up in futures prices. **Technical - aspect**: The RB2510 contract remained strong, with a bullish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages and an expanding red column in the MACD indicator [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the RB2510 contract continued to rise and was stronger than the RB2601 contract. On the 25th, the spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On July 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipts were 88027 tons, up 596 tons week - on - week. The net long position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 8836 lots, an increase of 9869 lots from last week [20] 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On July 25, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mm HRB400 was 3470 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3453 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price, and on the 25th, the basis was 114 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week [26] 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Furnace Charge Prices - On July 25, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/dry ton, up 15 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [30] 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14395.68 million tons, an increase of 14.17 million tons week - on - week [35] 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71%), daily coke output was 51.92 (+0.51), coke inventory was 50.12 (-5.43), total coking coal inventory was 841.21 (+51.02), and the available days of coking coal were 12.2 days (+0.62 days) [38] 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply - side - **Crude Steel Production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. **Rebar Production**: On July 24, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material enterprises was 211.96 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week. **EAF Steel Operating Rate**: On July 25, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 72.02%, up 6.94 percentage points week - on - week. **Rebar Inventory**: On July 24, the in - plant inventory of rebar was 165.67 million tons, a decrease of 7.43 million tons from last week, and the social inventory in 35 major cities was 372.97 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from last week [43][46][49][52] 4.2 Demand - side - From January to June 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 4.6% year - on - year [55] 5. Option Market - The cost side is supported by the continuous rise of coking coal, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the black series. It is recommended to continue holding the bought call options [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is a mix of long and short factors. The RB2510 contract may operate weakly in the range of 2920 - 3020. It's advisable to pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - During the consumption off - season, the apparent demand declines, and steel prices may face pressure in the medium to long term. It is recommended to buy put options [58]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of June 13, the price of the main rebar futures contract was 2969 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [7]. - The capacity utilization rate decreased, and rebar production declined for three consecutive weeks to 207.57 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons [7]. - Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the apparent demand continued to decline to 219.97 million tons, a decrease of 9.06 million tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14 million tons [7]. - The factory and social inventories continued to decline, and the total inventory declined for five consecutive weeks to 558.08 million tons, a decrease of 12.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 222.82 million tons [7]. - The profit rate of steel mills was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US will impose tariffs on various steel - made household appliances from June 23, and Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran. Domestically, Guangzhou canceled purchase and sales restrictions and price limits, and lowered the down - payment ratio and interest rate of loans. The China - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on measures to implement the important consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The capacity utilization rate dropped to 45.5%, rebar production declined for three consecutive weeks, and the EAF steel operating rate continued to decline. High - temperature and rainy weather affected terminal demand, and the apparent demand decreased to 219.97 million tons for two consecutive weeks [8]. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore was weakly sorted. The shipment and arrival of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, port inventory increased from a decrease, and demand weakened. The rebound of coking coal and coke was under pressure. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines declined for 5 consecutive weeks, supply showed signs of marginal improvement, but the clean coal inventory continued to increase, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented. The demand for downstream steel products was under pressure during the off - season [8]. - **Technical aspect**: The RB2510 contract was weakly oscillating. The daily K - line failed to break through the pressure of the MA20 (3010) moving average. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were operating below the 0 axis, and the red bars were stable [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price and Spread - This week, the RB2510 contract was weakly oscillating and weaker than the RB2601 contract. On the 13th, the spread was 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [14]. 2.2 Rebar Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On June 13, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35,964 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,203 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 12,050 lots, an increase of 27,560 lots compared to the previous week [20]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On June 13, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3226 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 131 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 yuan/ton [24]. 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton [32]. 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 26.739 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 765,000 tons; the total arrival volume of 45 ports was 26.093 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 tons; the total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 13.836 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.572 million tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 145.0314 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0283 million tons; the daily average shipment volume was 3.1525 million tons, a decrease of 1.381 million tons [36]. 3.3 Coking Plant Situation - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, a decrease of 0.97%; the daily average coke output was 521,700 tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons; the coke inventory was 873,100 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 6.6953 million tons, a decrease of 213,200 tons; the available days of coking coal were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.13 days [40]. 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply Side - **Crude Steel Production**: In April, China's crude steel production was 86.02 million tons, the same as the previous year; from January to April, the cumulative production was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [44]. - **Rebar Production**: On June 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.05 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4161 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 230,000 tons. On June 12, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 2.0757 million tons, a decrease of 1.089 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 2.484 million tons from the same period last year [47]. - **EAF Steel**: On June 12, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building material production enterprises was 45.5%, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous week and a decrease of 5.46% from the same period last year. On June 13, the average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.99 percentage points [50]. - **Rebar Inventory**: On June 12, the in - plant inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 1.8289 million tons, a decrease of 197,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 272,500 tons from the same period last year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 major cities was 3.7519 million tons, a decrease of 1.043 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 1.9557 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 5.5808 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2282 million tons [53]. 4.2 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to April 2025, the national real estate development investment was 2.773 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. The new construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. The completed area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [56]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to April 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Among them, investment in water conservancy management increased by 30.7%, investment in water transportation increased by 26.9%, and investment in air transportation increased by 13.9% [56]. 5. Option Market - Due to the consumption off - season, the apparent demand declined, and steel prices may face pressure in the medium to long term. It is recommended to buy put options [58].

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a slight decline of 0.25%, closing at 1577.0 yuan after reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan [1][2] - The fundamental performance of coking coal is considered acceptable, but upward driving forces are weak, with a stable increase in supply and a slight improvement in profitability for coking enterprises [2] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills is 240.1 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.1 million tons week-on-week, indicating that steel mills are maintaining good profitability [2] Group 2 - Short-term expectations suggest that coking coal will continue to stabilize due to increased downstream demand and positive inventory turnover for coking enterprises [3][5] - Coking coal futures are expected to maintain low-level fluctuations, influenced by ongoing trade disturbances and uncertain policies, despite some recovery in coking enterprise profits [4] - The market sentiment is marginally improving due to expectations of easing trade tensions, but long-term pressures from costs and terminal demand remain [4]

Core Viewpoints - The main focus of the news is the fluctuation of coking coal futures prices, which have recently experienced a decline, with the main contract dropping to 1530.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.80% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize as the market finds a bottom, supported by seasonal increases in iron production, although steel mills are controlling their inventory levels, making further price increases challenging [1] - The coking coal market is anticipated to improve by the end of April, following a recovery in the steel market, despite rising port inventories posing a downside risk [1][2] - Short-term price movements for coking coal are expected to remain volatile, with supply increasing due to improved profits for coking enterprises and new furnace production, while demand remains stable but cautious [2]