Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 70 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 75 yuan/ton. The results of the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism may have a significant impact on macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have rebounded to near the spot parity level. The current weak fundamentals of coking coal and coke remain unchanged, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - With the increase in the impact of summer high temperatures and heavy precipitation, steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and their enthusiasm for production cuts is limited. The decline in iron - water production has slowed down and remains at a relatively high level. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are trying to reduce inventory by controlling and reducing purchases, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. [6] - Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, with continuously and rapidly increasing passive inventory. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, the coke enterprises' production has slightly decreased. After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts in the future. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] - In terms of coking coal supply, there have been many safety accidents in Shanxi coal mines recently, and with the arrival of the production safety month, the uncertainty of coal mine supply has increased. At the same time, due to inventory and loss pressure, more coal mines are reducing production, resulting in a slight reduction in coal supply, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is operating weakly, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Coke Futures - For J2601, yesterday's price was 12601, today's price is 1358.5, with a rise of 56; for J2605, yesterday's price was 1377.0, today's price is 1363.0, with a rise of 14.0; for J2509, yesterday's price was 9056T, today's price is 1345.0, with a rise of 8.5. [2] Coking Coal Futures - For JM2601, yesterday's price was 7925, today's price is 773.0, with a fall of 19.5; for JM2605, yesterday's price was 818.5, today's price is 802.5, with a fall of 16.0; for JM2509, yesterday's price was 778.5, today's price is 757.0, with a fall of 5.15. [2] Spot Market - Coke: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, Heze, and Tangshan all decreased, with a decrease of 70 - 75 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke in Rizhao Port, Shanxi wet - quenched coke, and Xuyang dry - quenched coke also decreased. [2] - Coking Coal: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal changed, with the low - volatile remaining unchanged and the medium - volatile decreasing by 53 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of some coking coal also changed, with the optimal coking coal warehouse - receipt price decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. [2] Coking Profit - The 01, 05, and 09 contract coking profits all decreased, with decreases of 16.0, 6.9, and 19.8 yuan/ton respectively. The Shanxi spot profit decreased by 62.4 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamentals - Coke: The daily average production of 247 steel enterprises' coke decreased by 0.04, a decrease of 0.08%; the daily average consumption decreased by 0.05, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6, an increase of 14.03%. [2] - Coking Coal: The daily average production of 110 coal - washing plants' clean coal decreased by 0.3, a decrease of 0.60%; the daily average production of 523 mines' clean coal decreased by 1.8, a decrease of 2.29%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal decreased by 27.4, a decrease of 3.24%. [2] 2. Night - session Review - The JM2509 contract of coking coal futures closed at 778 yuan/ton, and the J2509 contract of coke futures closed at 1336 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, down 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous day. [2] 3. Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism will hold its first meeting. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. [4] - The price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an decreased by 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. The trading volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 22.8% on June 6, while the trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders increased by 4.9%. [4] - The planned output of 79 domestic hot - rolled strip steel mills in June 2025 is expected to increase by 18.11 million tons compared with May. The price of Mongolian imported coking coal has been declining since May to early June, with a cumulative decline of 15.06%. [5] - As of June 5, the freight volume of Xinjiang Railway this year reached 101 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The export volume of Mongolian coal from January to May 2025 decreased by 2.35% year - on - year, and the export value decreased by 40.77% year - on - year. [5] 4. Trading Strategy - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The results of the China - US economic and trade consultation may affect macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures are near the spot parity level, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - Steel consumption is seasonally weakening, but steel mills are still profitable, and their production - cut enthusiasm is limited. Steel mills are trying to reduce inventory and suppress raw material prices. Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, and there may be further price cuts. [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply has some uncertainties, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - On June 4, 2025, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 768.0, up 7.19%, and the Mongolian No. 5 raw coal in the spot market rose by 10 yuan/ton to 727 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal has marginal improvement signs, with the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines declining for three consecutive weeks and the cumulative import growth rate decreasing, while the clean coal inventory continues to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 4, 2025, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1367.5, up 5.72%, and the second - round price cut in the spot market was implemented. Trump announced to raise the import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials has marginal improvement signs, and the molten iron output has declined from a high level. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide in this period is 39 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the JM main contract was 768.00 yuan/ton, up 49.00 yuan; the contract's open interest was 681,464.00 lots, up 1,013.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 29,372.00 lots, down 15,224.00 lots; the spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 18.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 200.00, up 200.00 [2]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the J main contract was 1367.50 yuan/ton, up 68.50 yuan; the contract's open interest was 58,263.00 lots, down 1,060.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts was 1,867.00 lots, down 471.00 lots; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 8.50 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 80.00, down 10.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 727.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the CFR price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 116.50 US dollars/wet ton, down 1.00 US dollar; the price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1,180.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,050.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,050.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 282.00 yuan/ton, down 49.00 yuan [2]. - **Coke**: The price of Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan second - class metallurgical coke was 1,525.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the J main contract was 152.50 yuan/ton, down 68.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Coking Coal**: The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 310.98 million tons, down 5.50 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 222.07 million tons, up 7.33 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 61.55%, down 0.81 percentage points; the raw coal output was 38,930.60 million tons, down 5,127.60 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3,783.00 million tons, down 90.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.80 thousand tons, down 1.80 thousand tons; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.76 million tons, up 18.27 million tons; the total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 846.33 million tons, down 19.40 million tons; the inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 786.79 million tons, down 11.96 million tons; the available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.50 days, down 0.20 days; the import volume of coking coal was 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the output of coking coal was 4,161.47 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The inventory of coke at 18 ports was 271.78 million tons, down 4.90 million tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 111.38 million tons, up 8.13 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 654.93 million tons, down 5.66 million tons; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.71 days, down 0.18 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 21.00 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.66%, down 0.21 percentage points; the profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 39.00 yuan/ton, down 24.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4,160.00 million tons, up 30.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.89%, up 0.22 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.67%, down 0.63 percentage points; the crude steel output was 8,601.90 million tons, down 682.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition mainly in the form of "price war", adhere to production based on sales, reasonably set annual production targets for enterprises and sales targets for dealers, and not transfer inventory to dealers or force dealers to purchase vehicles to reduce dealer inventory levels [2]. - From January to May 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced more than 60 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products initiated by foreign countries [2]. - The voting results of the South Korean general election were passed, and President Lee Jae - myung's term officially began [2]. - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the United States and the world, stating that Trump's tariff policy was the main reason for the downgrade. The OECD predicted that the US economic growth rate would drop to 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026 [2].