Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's use of the term "substantive framework agreement" indicates a shift in the U.S. stance, as they will no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China [1][3] - The timing of the negotiations is significant, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes and declining consumer confidence in the U.S. retail sector [3][5] - The negotiations are not merely about tariffs but involve deeper economic strategic adjustments, with both sides achieving temporary political gains [5][9] Group 2 - The trade friction has led to a transformation in global supply chains, with companies in China and the U.S. adapting to new market realities [6][7] - U.S. farmers are diversifying their markets due to the trade tensions, indicating a shift in agricultural strategies [6][9] - The framework agreement does not resolve fundamental differences, particularly in key technology sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [9][11] Group 3 - The trade ceasefire has implications beyond bilateral relations, with the EU and Southeast Asian countries closely monitoring the developments [11][13] - The global trade landscape is shifting from a "unipolar dominance" to a "multipolar governance" model, making unilateral tariff policies less effective [11][14] - The agreement provides a reason for continued dialogue but does not eliminate competition between the two nations [13][14]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The spot market had stable foreign - market quotes and a 3 - yuan/ton price increase at Qingdao Port. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross, and the MACD green column narrowed for 3 consecutive days. The market may be affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and BHP's announcements. The supply and demand fundamentals show that Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded, arrivals have dropped, and iron - water production is at a high level but has declined slightly for 3 weeks. Steel production profits are shrinking. Overall, the coking coal market news may drive steel and iron ore prices up, but the changes in steel production profits and Sino - US negotiation results need to be observed [7][9][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 23, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract opened at 777 yuan/ton, reached a high of 782 yuan/ton, a low of 770 yuan/ton, and closed at 777 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume was 236,711 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,978 lots to 561,141 lots. Other related steel futures contracts also had different price changes and trading volumes [5][7] - The spot market: Main iron ore foreign - market quotes on October 23 were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross on the daily line, and the green column of the MACD indicator on the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive days [9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: China will send a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 to 27. On October 23, BHP stated that if its coking coal business in Australia does not receive regulatory support, it will be forced to make "difficult decisions." Last month, BHP announced the suspension of its joint - venture coking coal mine in Queensland due to low product prices and high royalties [10][11][12] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded, and arrivals have dropped significantly, mainly due to the regular decline after the end of the quarterly - end rush. The average daily iron - water production is still above 240 million tons but has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the current profits of rebar blast furnaces, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into a loss state. It is expected that the subsequent production will continue to fluctuate at around 240 million tons. Steel demand has recovered this week, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. The sustainability of the subsequent demand recovery needs to be observed [11] - Overall view: The sudden news in the coking coal market has a significant driving effect on prices, and steel and iron ore may follow the upward trend in the short term. However, the changes in steel production profits need to be observed to see if they can recover. In addition, the results of the Sino - US negotiations also need to be closely monitored [11] 3.2 Industry News - On October 23, BHP stated that if its coking coal business in Australia does not receive regulatory support, it will be forced to make "difficult decisions." Last month, BHP announced the suspension of its joint - venture coking coal mine in Queensland with a subsidiary of Mitsubishi due to low product prices and high royalties [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, Brazilian and Australian iron ore shipments, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, main port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and shipment volume, sample steel mill tax - free hot - metal cost, blast furnace and electric - furnace operating rates and capacity utilization, national average daily iron - water production, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, weekly output of the five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][18][22]

Core Points - China and the United States will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng participating [1] - Malaysian Prime Minister Li Qiang is expected to attend the ASEAN summit, highlighting the importance of ASEAN's role in regional cooperation [1] Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes the significance of its relationship with ASEAN and supports Malaysia's role as the rotating chair of ASEAN [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry will provide further information regarding the consultations at an appropriate time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [3][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese government has expressed its readiness to engage in dialogue with the U.S. but insists that the U.S. must cease its threats and discriminatory measures against China [3][4]. - China has reiterated its stance on the ongoing trade war, stating that it is prepared to respond to U.S. actions while remaining open to negotiations [4]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures on rare earth elements are described as legitimate actions based on legal regulations aimed at enhancing its export control system [3]. - The Chinese government assures that its export controls do not equate to a ban, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [3]. Group 3: Bilateral Communication - China has communicated its position to the U.S. through bilateral export control dialogue mechanisms prior to the implementation of its measures [3]. - The Chinese government highlights the importance of maintaining communication within the framework of U.S.-China economic consultations to address mutual concerns and manage differences effectively [4].

中国商务部：国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。中美双方将按照两国元首6月5日通话重要共识，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，继续就彼此关心的经贸问题开展磋商。 https://t.co/TYjTmwfiP4外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国财长贝森特：与中国的贸易谈判已经进入新阶段。与中国的会谈将于下周一周二在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩举行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 70 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 75 yuan/ton. The results of the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism may have a significant impact on macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have rebounded to near the spot parity level. The current weak fundamentals of coking coal and coke remain unchanged, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - With the increase in the impact of summer high temperatures and heavy precipitation, steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and their enthusiasm for production cuts is limited. The decline in iron - water production has slowed down and remains at a relatively high level. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are trying to reduce inventory by controlling and reducing purchases, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. [6] - Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, with continuously and rapidly increasing passive inventory. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, the coke enterprises' production has slightly decreased. After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts in the future. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] - In terms of coking coal supply, there have been many safety accidents in Shanxi coal mines recently, and with the arrival of the production safety month, the uncertainty of coal mine supply has increased. At the same time, due to inventory and loss pressure, more coal mines are reducing production, resulting in a slight reduction in coal supply, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is operating weakly, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Coke Futures - For J2601, yesterday's price was 12601, today's price is 1358.5, with a rise of 56; for J2605, yesterday's price was 1377.0, today's price is 1363.0, with a rise of 14.0; for J2509, yesterday's price was 9056T, today's price is 1345.0, with a rise of 8.5. [2] Coking Coal Futures - For JM2601, yesterday's price was 7925, today's price is 773.0, with a fall of 19.5; for JM2605, yesterday's price was 818.5, today's price is 802.5, with a fall of 16.0; for JM2509, yesterday's price was 778.5, today's price is 757.0, with a fall of 5.15. [2] Spot Market - Coke: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, Heze, and Tangshan all decreased, with a decrease of 70 - 75 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke in Rizhao Port, Shanxi wet - quenched coke, and Xuyang dry - quenched coke also decreased. [2] - Coking Coal: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal changed, with the low - volatile remaining unchanged and the medium - volatile decreasing by 53 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt prices of some coking coal also changed, with the optimal coking coal warehouse - receipt price decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. [2] Coking Profit - The 01, 05, and 09 contract coking profits all decreased, with decreases of 16.0, 6.9, and 19.8 yuan/ton respectively. The Shanxi spot profit decreased by 62.4 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamentals - Coke: The daily average production of 247 steel enterprises' coke decreased by 0.04, a decrease of 0.08%; the daily average consumption decreased by 0.05, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6, an increase of 14.03%. [2] - Coking Coal: The daily average production of 110 coal - washing plants' clean coal decreased by 0.3, a decrease of 0.60%; the daily average production of 523 mines' clean coal decreased by 1.8, a decrease of 2.29%. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal decreased by 27.4, a decrease of 3.24%. [2] 2. Night - session Review - The JM2509 contract of coking coal futures closed at 778 yuan/ton, and the J2509 contract of coke futures closed at 1336 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, down 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous day. [2] 3. Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism will hold its first meeting. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. [4] - The price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an decreased by 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. The trading volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 22.8% on June 6, while the trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders increased by 4.9%. [4] - The planned output of 79 domestic hot - rolled strip steel mills in June 2025 is expected to increase by 18.11 million tons compared with May. The price of Mongolian imported coking coal has been declining since May to early June, with a cumulative decline of 15.06%. [5] - As of June 5, the freight volume of Xinjiang Railway this year reached 101 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The export volume of Mongolian coal from January to May 2025 decreased by 2.35% year - on - year, and the export value decreased by 40.77% year - on - year. [5] 4. Trading Strategy - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The results of the China - US economic and trade consultation may affect macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures are near the spot parity level, and it is difficult for prices to continue rising. [6] - Steel consumption is seasonally weakening, but steel mills are still profitable, and their production - cut enthusiasm is limited. Steel mills are trying to reduce inventory and suppress raw material prices. Coke enterprises are facing greater shipment pressure, and there may be further price cuts. [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply has some uncertainties, but it is still relatively loose. The coking coal spot market is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The conversation between the Chinese and U.S. leaders emphasizes the importance of utilizing the established economic and trade consultation mechanism to achieve win-win results for both parties [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Economic and Trade Dialogue** - The leaders agreed to hold talks in Geneva, marking a significant step towards resolving economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation, which has been positively received by various sectors in both countries and the international community [1] - **Commitment to Cooperation** - Both sides are encouraged to maintain a spirit of equality, respect each other's concerns, and strive for mutually beneficial outcomes, indicating China's sincerity and principled stance in the negotiations [1]