Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 25, the JM2601 contract closed at 1086.0, down 1.00%. On the spot side, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - aspect shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring thermal coal supply in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The overall inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 25, the J2601 contract closed at 1643.0, up 0.98%. On the spot side, the fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented. The macro - aspect indicates that Fed Governor Waller said the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting. Fundamentally, the current iron - water output is 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1086.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1643.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 882468.00 hands, up 23065.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 48757.00 hands, down 420.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121783.00 hands, down 17327.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 865.00 hands, up 255.00 hands [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 98.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - The number of JM warehouse receipts was 0.00; the number of J warehouse receipts was 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1010.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1780.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 524.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the J主力合约基差 was 242.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged; the monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 456.90 million tons, down 31.30 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 1038.19 million tons, down 30.78 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills nationwide was 797.08 million tons, up 6.91 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 622.34 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 12.97 days, up 0.10 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.05 days, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi pointed out that since the Busan meeting, Sino - US relations have generally been stable and improving [2]. - Fed Governor Waller said the existing data shows that the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting [2]. - UBS said in a report that it expects copper prices to rise next year due to supply shortages caused by continuous disruptions in mine production and strong long - term demand from electrification and clean - energy investment, with a target price of 13000 US dollars in December 2026 [2]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Hebei Province aims to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, and improve the competitiveness of Hebei's steel in the global industrial division [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：安全检查与严控超产同步进行，炼焦煤供应持续偏紧。近期焦炭价格向好，提振市场信心， 下游及中间商对原料采购需求小幅回升，焦煤市场成交有所改善，考虑到近期线上竞拍成交均有不同程 度上涨，但受限于利润不佳影响，近期下游对部分超涨高价煤种开始观望；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1430，基差164.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：下游焦企对焦煤需求较好，厂 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-13） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产区煤矿保持开工稳定，市场延续供应宽松局面。煤矿产量均有不同程度提升，且部分煤 种随着下游采购积极性减弱，煤矿出货情况不及预期，报价略有下调。加之近期流拍情况较多，市场观 望情绪渐浓，短期部分库存较高的煤种仍有降价预期；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差210.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存782.5万吨，港口库存324.8万吨，独立焦企库存819.8万吨，总样本库存1927.1万吨， 较上周减少24.4万吨；偏多 6、预期：受国际消息影响上涨，市场情绪略有修复。然虽终端铁水延续回升，但钢价下跌、利润压缩， 近期发布检修计划钢厂增加，铁水或临近见顶，钢厂对原料补库力度 ...