交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-6） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：主产地煤矿复产已进入尾声，产能释放基本恢复至节前正常水平，焦煤市场供应端宽松态 势持续。但年后下游需求未回暖，加之供应端焦煤恢复较快，钢厂发起年后第一轮提降，焦煤整体价格 走势偏弱；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1175，基差69.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游焦化企业开工率虽较前期有所提升，但提升幅度有限，且受焦炭市场弱势影响，焦企盈 利空间或将进一步压缩，因此对焦煤采购仍以按需补库为主，大规模补库意愿不强，压价采购现象普遍， 仅对部分关键煤种进行少量刚需 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 25, the JM2601 contract closed at 1086.0, down 1.00%. On the spot side, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - aspect shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring thermal coal supply in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The overall inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 25, the J2601 contract closed at 1643.0, up 0.98%. On the spot side, the fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented. The macro - aspect indicates that Fed Governor Waller said the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting. Fundamentally, the current iron - water output is 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1086.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1643.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 882468.00 hands, up 23065.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 48757.00 hands, down 420.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121783.00 hands, down 17327.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 865.00 hands, up 255.00 hands [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 98.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - The number of JM warehouse receipts was 0.00; the number of J warehouse receipts was 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1010.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1780.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 524.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the J主力合约基差 was 242.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged; the monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 456.90 million tons, down 31.30 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 1038.19 million tons, down 30.78 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills nationwide was 797.08 million tons, up 6.91 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 622.34 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 12.97 days, up 0.10 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.05 days, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi pointed out that since the Busan meeting, Sino - US relations have generally been stable and improving [2]. - Fed Governor Waller said the existing data shows that the US employment market is still weak, which may lead to a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December 9 - 10 meeting [2]. - UBS said in a report that it expects copper prices to rise next year due to supply shortages caused by continuous disruptions in mine production and strong long - term demand from electrification and clean - energy investment, with a target price of 13000 US dollars in December 2026 [2]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Hebei Province aims to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, and improve the competitiveness of Hebei's steel in the global industrial division [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, safety inspections and strict control of over - production lead to a continuous tight supply. The improvement in coke prices boosts market confidence, and the procurement demand from downstream and middlemen has slightly increased. However, due to poor profits, downstream is starting to be cautious about some over - priced coal types. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [2]. - For coke, after the third round of price increase, the loss of coke enterprises has slightly eased, and the inventory is at a low level. But most coke enterprises are on the verge of profit and loss, and there is an intention to expand production cuts. The supply pattern remains tight in the short term. The demand from downstream steel mills has decreased slightly, which suppresses the further increase of coke prices. It is expected that the short - term coke price will remain stable [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is tight, downstream demand has a slight recovery, but there is caution about over - priced coal; bullish [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 164.5, spot premium over futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - Main position: Net long position of main coking coal contract, long position decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Downstream demand is good, but steel mill profits are low and iron - water output is falling, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: After the price increase, the loss has eased, inventory is low, but profit issues may lead to production cuts, supply remains tight; bullish [6]. - Basis: Spot price is 1680, basis is - 63.5, spot discount to futures; bearish [6]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [6]. - Main position: Net short position of main coke contract, short position increasing; bearish [6]. - Expectation: Supply is stable with profit repair, low inventory supports the price, but downstream demand is weakening, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [6]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production, difficult to increase supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production and simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Prices - On November 10 (17:30), most port metallurgical coke prices showed a downward trend, with price drops ranging from 20 to 40 [9]. - On November 10 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal varied by type and port, and the price of 1/3 coking coal (GJ) at Caofeidian Port increased by 110 [10]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market has a loose supply situation. Although some coal prices may decline due to weak downstream procurement and high inventory, the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term. The market sentiment has slightly improved due to international news, but steel mills' raw material replenishment is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - **Coke**: Coke supply is expected to increase due to lower coking coal prices. However, considering the approaching traditional off - season of the steel market and high inventory in steel mills, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually accumulating, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines in production areas maintain stable production, with a loose supply. Some coal prices have been slightly reduced due to weak downstream procurement and more auction failures. There is still a price cut expectation for some high - inventory coal varieties [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1100, and the basis is 210.5, indicating a spot premium over futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons from last week. Steel mill inventory is 782.5 million tons, port inventory is 324.8 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.8 million tons [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are decreasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Affected by international news, the price has risen and market sentiment has slightly recovered. However, steel mills' raw material replenishment is mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Coking enterprises maintain a high - level of operation and are active in shipping. Although some enterprises have slightly slower shipments due to weak downstream procurement, the overall inventory is low and there is no significant pressure [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1490, and the basis is 18.5, indicating a spot premium over futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from last week. Steel mill inventory is 666.4 million tons, port inventory is 243.6 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 68.8 million tons [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Lower coking coal prices support coking enterprise profits, and supply is expected to increase. However, considering the steel market's off - season and high inventory in steel mills, the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of various types of coking coal in Russian, American, and Australian ports on May 12, 2025, including prices and price changes [10]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [21]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory in independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. 3.4 Other Indicators - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].