研究所 铁合金加速减产 等待煤价企稳 ----国信期货铁合金周报 行情回顾·要闻概览 研究所 2025年5月18日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 4 总结及后市展望 1 行情回顾 2 锰硅产业链概况 3 硅铁产业链概况 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 行情回顾·锰硅产业链价格变动 研究所 数据来源：WIND、Mysteel、钢之家、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布。双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消91%的反制 关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施。其中，国务院关税税则委员 会2025年第4号公告规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [11] Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding limited coal demand during the peak season due to negative growth in electricity generation and recent tariff disruptions, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not reverse the stabilization of coal prices during the peak season [2][7] - Despite the seasonal demand typically increasing in the second and third quarters, the report indicates that the actual demand may be limited, and the market remains cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization trend is likely to continue, supported by steady supply and rising demand for coal, particularly in the context of domestic needs and risk aversion in the market [2][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [19] - As of April 25, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 655 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [19][47] Demand and Supply Analysis - The report notes that the coal supply in the twenty-five provinces was 5.076 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week, while the coal consumption was 4.765 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% [40] - The report emphasizes that despite the current low demand season, the upcoming summer peak season is expected to see a seasonal increase in coal demand, although the extent may be limited due to tariff impacts [7][8] Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize or even experience a mild rebound due to steady supply and the necessity for coal consumption, despite potential downward pressure from current demand levels [8][9] - The report also discusses the potential impact of tariffs on coal prices, indicating that while there may be some constraining effects, the overall trend towards price stabilization remains intact [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coal sector for the next 1-2 quarters, particularly highlighting companies such as China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [9]