Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's self-produced coal cost reduction and the recovery of coal prices have led to a significant improvement in gross profit on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1][7] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 162.4 billion, 172.6 billion, and 181.8 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, maintaining a stable profit outlook [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 361.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%, and a net profit of 47.80 billion, a decrease of 1.0% [4] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue totaled 1,105.84 billion, down 21.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 124.85 billion, down 14.6% [4] Coal Production and Sales - In Q3 2025, the company's self-produced coal output was 34.24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, while total sales volume was 61.68 million tons, down 14.3% year-on-year [7] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 483 yuan/ton, down 11.5% year-on-year but up 7.5% quarter-on-quarter [7] Market Outlook - The report indicates that since Q3 2025, market coal prices have stopped declining and are on the rise, with the Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal price increasing by 6% to approximately 672 yuan/ton [7] - The company is positioned as a leading thermal coal producer in China and is advancing its ongoing projects, which are expected to enhance its profit structure [7] Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2025 is 168.53 billion, with a net profit of 16.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.0% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 24.5% for the coming years [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the gradual recovery of coal prices, supply-side policy expectations are once again catalyzing sector sentiment, potentially leading to a new round of opportunities in the coal sector [1] - It is anticipated that under the resonance of supply and demand expectations, the sector may experience significant upward movement, especially if supply-side policies and growth stabilization policies further overlap [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects representative companies from the coal industry to reflect market performance and development trends [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Coal Index emphasizes the scale and liquidity of companies, providing insights into the overall supply and demand situation and market dynamics of the coal industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai China Securities Coal ETF Link C (008280) and Guotai China Securities Coal ETF Link A (008279) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector in Hong Kong is experiencing a strong performance, with Mongolian Coal rising nearly 11% amid a recovery in coal prices and positive supply-side policy expectations [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Mongolian Coal (00975.HK) increased by 10.95% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) rose by 4.88% [1] - Nanshan Resources (01229.HK) saw a gain of 3.70% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - According to CITIC Securities, the recovery in coal prices is driving positive sentiment in the sector [1] - The sector is expected to enter a new round of opportunities due to the resonance of supply and demand expectations [1]