油煤比大幅走扩，煤价拐点渐近重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《焦煤期货大涨和动力煤去库，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.6.8 《国内及蒙古焦煤临近成本线，焦煤 加速探底或近底部—行业点评报告》 -2025.6.4 《煤价企稳和环渤海港去库，否极泰 来 重 视 煤 炭 配 置 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.6.2 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：油煤比大幅走扩，煤价拐点渐近重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，截至 6 月 13 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 609 元/吨，环比持平，CCTD 动力煤现货价（Q5500）为 618 元/吨，环比持平。从 供给端来看，国内生产方面，截至 6 月 8 日，晋陕蒙三省 442 家煤矿开工率 80.7%，环比下跌 0.6 个百分点，其中山西省煤矿开工率 69.8%，环比 ...

煤炭 中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 2025 年 05 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《一揽子金融政策稳市场预期，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.5.11 《红利与周期双逻辑，煤炭攻守兼备 —煤炭行业 2025 年中期投资策略》- 2025.5.8 《政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.27 张绪成（分析师） ——行业周报 zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 5 月 16 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 614 元/吨，环比下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 2.54%；截至 5 月 16 日，CCTD 动力煤现货价（Q5500）为 629 元/吨，环比下跌 14 元/吨，跌幅 2.18%。从供给 ...

煤炭 中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 2025 年 05 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《一揽子金融政策稳市场预期，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.5.11 《红利与周期双逻辑，煤炭攻守兼备 —煤炭行业 2025 年中期投资策略》- 2025.5.8 《政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.27 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：中美互降关税提振下游需求，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 5 月 16 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 614 元/吨，环比下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 2.54%；截至 5 月 16 日，CCTD 动力煤现货价（Q5500）为 629 元/吨，环比下跌 14 元/吨，跌幅 2.18%。从供给 ...

一揽子金融政策稳市场预期，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 2025 年 05 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 煤炭 沪深300 行 业 周 报 相关研究报告 《红利与周期双逻辑，煤炭攻守兼备 —煤炭行业 2025 年中期投资策略》- 2025.5.8 《政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.27 《火电降幅收窄叠加进口减量，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.20 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：一揽子金融政策稳市场预期，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 5 月 9 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 630 元/吨，环比下跌 20 元/吨，跌幅 3.08%；CCTD 动力 煤现货价（Q5500）为 643 元/吨，环比下跌 14 元/吨，跌幅 2.13%。从供给端来 看，国内生产方面，晋陕蒙煤矿开工率整体延续微跌趋势，截至 5 月 4 日，晋陕蒙 ...

开源证券近日发布煤炭行业周报：当前国内经济运行偏弱，海外面临特朗普上台之后关 税政策打压，美国处于降息周期且国内利率也进入下行通道，煤炭稳健红利仍可配置，此外 保险资金已在24年11月底完成考核，当前已开始新的布局期，煤炭等红利板块且国资背景风 险小，或成为险资布局的首选方向。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周要闻回顾：政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 煤炭股稳健红利投资逻辑：当前国内经济运行偏弱，海外面临特朗普上台之后关税政策 打压，美国处于降息周期且国内利率也进入下行通道，煤炭稳健红利仍可配置，此外保险资 金已在24年11月底完成考核，当前已开始新的布局期，煤炭等红利板块且国资背景风险小， 或成为险资布局的首选方向。煤炭股周期弹性投资逻辑：3月两会召开之后，无论动力煤还 是炼焦煤价格均处于低位，随着供需基本面的持续改善，两类煤种有望企稳反弹，其中动力 煤存在区间内弹性而炼焦煤是完全弹性；当前宏观政策已表现力度很大，市场更期待政策落 地后反映在需求上的真实效果，2025年"两会"之后，政策方案落实以及开春施工季的来临， 煤炭的需求和价格均有望体现出向上趋势，煤炭股周期属性将显现。煤炭板块有望迎来重 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal investments due to the expected recovery in domestic demand amid escalating trade tensions. The coal market is viewed as a defensive asset class, particularly in light of the current economic environment and monetary policy shifts [3][4][13]. - The coal prices have stabilized at ports, with CCTD thermal coal Q5500 priced at 676 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The report notes that the market sentiment is improving as inventory issues begin to ease [3][4]. - The report outlines several factors that could support a rebound in coal prices, including the long-term contract price ceiling, the maintenance of the annual contract system, and the linkage between coal and electricity prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economy and external pressures from U.S. tariffs create a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][13]. - The cyclical nature of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices at low levels, suggesting potential for recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][13]. Key Market Indicators - The report provides a snapshot of key indicators, noting that the coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.17 percentage points, with a weekly decline of 5.04% [8][10]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.2, and the PB ratio is 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [10][14]. Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have remained stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady. The report notes a slight increase in prices at some production sites, indicating a mixed market response [3][4][16]. - The report also highlights the international coal price trends, with Newcastle prices showing slight increases, while domestic prices remain competitive against imports [16][17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 6, the operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 81.7%, a slight decrease from the previous week. Coastal power plants' daily coal consumption has also seen a minor decline [3][4][16]. - The report indicates that non-electric coal demand is showing signs of improvement, with methanol and urea production rates increasing, which may further support coal inventory reduction [3][4][16]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report lists several coal companies with strong dividend potential and cyclical recovery prospects, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [4][14][18]. - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to see increased capital inflows as institutional investors recognize the current valuation as a bottoming opportunity [4][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of coal as a defensive asset amid unexpected U.S. tariffs, highlighting the need for a balanced approach in coal investments [1][4] - The coal market is currently in a bottoming phase, with potential for price stabilization and rebound supported by various factors including long-term contract price ceilings and self-rescue actions by coal companies [3][4] - The report suggests that the coal sector is entering a new phase of investment opportunities, driven by macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and external pressures from U.S. tariff policies, with insurance funds starting new allocations in coal [4][12] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is expected to improve as supply-demand fundamentals continue to enhance, particularly after the March Two Sessions and the arrival of the spring construction season [4][12] Key Market Indicators - The coal sector saw a slight increase of 0.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.97 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.6, and the PB ratio is 1.22, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9][12] Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have stabilized, with CCTD Q5500 coal priced at 676 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week [3][15] - The inventory at ports has decreased, with the total inventory in the Bohai Rim area at 30.271 million tons, down 3.08% from the previous week [3][15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia remains steady at 82.1% [3][15] - Daily coal consumption by coastal power plants has decreased to 1.844 million tons, a drop of 3.96% [3][15] Company Performance and Recommendations - Selected coal stocks are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, with recommendations for companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy based on their dividend potential [4][12][13] - The report highlights the importance of capital inflows from industry players, indicating a recognition of the current value bottom in the coal sector [4][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the rebound in coal prices and the impact of fiscal policies, highlighting the value of coal asset allocation [4][5] - The coal market is expected to stabilize and rebound due to improved demand and supply dynamics, supported by government policies and fiscal measures [4][5] - The report identifies a "Coal Golden Era 2.0," suggesting that coal stocks are poised for a resurgence in value [5][11] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The current economic environment is weak domestically, while international factors such as U.S. tariff policies and interest rate cuts are influencing the coal market positively [5][11] - Coal stocks are seen as stable dividend investments, with insurance funds beginning new allocations in the sector [5][11] - The report anticipates a rebound in both thermal and coking coal prices following the March Two Sessions, with demand expected to rise as policies are implemented [5][11] Key Indicators - The coal sector experienced a slight increase of 0.45% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.94 percentage points [9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.8, and the PB ratio is 1.18, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9][11] Coal Price Trends - Recent coal price movements show a rebound after a period of decline, with specific price increases noted for various coal grades [4][17] - The report highlights the importance of long-term contract pricing mechanisms in stabilizing coal prices [4][5] Company Performance - Several coal companies are expected to benefit from the anticipated market recovery, with specific stocks identified for their dividend potential and cyclical recovery [5][11] - The report lists key coal companies and their projected earnings, emphasizing their strong dividend policies and market positions [14][11]