投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 14 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪降温，煤焦继续调整 核心观点 焦炭：8 月 14 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1707 元/吨，日内录得 4.32%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.77 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-1034 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/吨，周环比 上涨 4.23%。本周，焦炭第六轮提涨落地，现货市场乐观氛围延续。从基 本面角度来看，近期焦炭供需基本持稳， ...

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is undergoing significant policy changes aimed at preventing market "involution" and low-price competition, with regulations set to take effect from July 2024 and July 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The coal market is shifting from a tight supply situation to a relatively loose one due to slow demand growth and increased supply from high-quality production [2][6]. - **Price Trends**: Power coal prices are expected to rise during the peak summer months, potentially reaching 750 RMB/ton by mid-September, before stabilizing with minor fluctuations [1][11]. - **Supply Constraints**: New safety regulations for coal mines will limit production capacity, particularly for mines affected by rock pressure, which may lead to the closure or restructuring of smaller mines [1][9][10]. - **Demand Forecast**: National coal consumption is projected to grow by 1-2% in 2025, reaching approximately 4.7 billion tons, with new supply additions of about 10-20 million tons [1][11]. - **Regulatory Impact**: The 2025 coal mine safety regulations will enforce stricter standards, including a reduction in gas management standards, which may further impact production levels [9][10]. Additional Important Content - **Temporary Capacity Adjustments**: The exit of temporary and pre-approved production capacities will be dynamic, with expectations of 50-60 million tons of capacity exiting in Inner Mongolia by year-end, while overall capacity remains around 1.2 billion tons [12][13]. - **Import Policies**: China has strict import policies for low-quality coal, but the volume of imported coal is expected to increase due to price advantages returning, particularly from Russia and Australia [14]. - **Future of Reserve Capacity**: The development of reserve capacity systems remains uncertain, pending further policy guidance from the government [15]. - **Regional Production Capacity**: As of June 2023, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces have significant production capacities, but these figures are subject to change due to ongoing adjustments and regulatory impacts [16]. - **Long-term Contracts**: The long-term contract system will continue, with the benchmark price of 675 RMB/ton unlikely to change in the near term due to thorough market assessments [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the coal industry, highlighting the interplay between regulatory changes, market dynamics, and future expectations.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 12 日 煤焦日报 利多因素主导，煤焦强势运行 核心观点 焦炭：8 月 12 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1812 元/吨，日内录得 4.50%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.68 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+4726 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1460 元/吨，周环比 上涨 2.82%。近期，焦炭供需基本持稳运行，不过成本端焦煤供应扰动仍 有反复，对焦炭期货形成一定支撑。另外，中美宣布将关税豁免期继续展 期 90 天，叠加金九银十临近，市场整体氛围仍偏乐观，驱动焦炭主力合 约偏强运行。 焦煤：8 月 12 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1313 点，日内上涨 6.97%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 71.89 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+28210 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1190.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 3.48%，折合期货仓单成本约 1167 元/吨。煤炭行业反内卷政策影响仍在 发酵，本周高频数据也显 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围主导，煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭：据钢联统计，8 月 8 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦 炭日均产量 111.9 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.12 万吨，基本持平。由于周 内焦炭提涨落地，且原材料焦煤现货价格企稳，焦企利润迎来好转，最新 一期独立焦化厂吨焦盈利录得-16 元/吨，周环比增加 29 元/吨。需求 端，8 月 8 日当周，全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 240.32 万吨，周环比 小幅下降 0.39 万吨。钢厂盈利率继续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The coke futures had been rising driven by strong expectations, but after the short - term market sentiment was released, they faced a periodic correction as the actual impact of coal mine over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coke output of independent and steel - mill coking plants increased week - on - week, while the ton - coke profit of independent sample coking plants decreased. The daily average iron - water output of steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the same period last year [3][27]. - The coal industry's anti - involution policy expectations were gradually realized. After the optimistic sentiment about coking coal was released, its price started a periodic adjustment as the actual impact of over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coking coal output of mines increased week - on - week, imports from Mongolia recovered, and the demand for coking coal, reflected by coke output, also increased week - on - week [4][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading limit for the coking coal futures JM2509 contract. From the trading time on July 29, 2025 (i.e., the night trading session on July 28), non - futures company members or clients' single - day opening volume on the JM2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on other contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots. Hedging and market - making trading are not subject to these limits [5]. - In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1647.4 billion yuan, with railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation investments of 355.9 billion yuan, 1129.1 billion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [6]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - position was 1,320 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 8.20%, a month - on - month increase of 8.20%, a year - on - year decrease of 21.89%, and a decrease of 35.29% compared to the same period last year. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse was 1,420 yuan, with corresponding changes of 11.81%, 22.41%, - 12.35%, and - 24.47% [7]. - Coking coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,100 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 15.79%, a month - on - month increase of 27.17%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.78%, and a decrease of 29.49% compared to the same period last year. The prices of Australian - produced and Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port also had different degrees of price changes [7]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,608.5 yuan, with a decline of 7.98%, a highest price of 1,749.0 yuan, a lowest price of 1,608.5 yuan, a trading volume of 62,942 lots (a decrease of 2,788 lots), and an open interest of 33,534 lots (a decrease of 3,861 lots) [10]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,100.5 yuan, with a decline of 11.00%, a highest price of 1,288.5 yuan, a lowest price of 1,100.5 yuan, a trading volume of 3,461,352 lots (an increase of 1,272,139 lots), and an open interest of 393,117 lots (a decrease of 126,188 lots) [10]. Related Charts - A series of charts showed the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, and mines) over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [11][16][22]. - Other charts presented the production situation of domestic steel mills, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, the production situation of coal - washing plants, and the operation situation of coking plants, including indicators such as blast - furnace operating rate, steel - mill profitability, ton - coke profit, and coke - oven capacity utilization [23][24][26]. 后市研判 (Future Market Judgment) - Coke: The situation of production, profit, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the short - term market sentiment was released, coke futures faced a periodic correction [27]. - Coking coal: The situation of production, imports, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the optimistic sentiment was released, coking coal prices started a periodic adjustment [27].