Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 14, the coke main contract closed at 1,707 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 4.32%. The spot market's sixth round of price increases for coke has been implemented, and the optimistic atmosphere continues. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable recently, and the supply of coking coal at the cost end is subject to repeated disturbances. The coke futures have pulled back again at the 1,750 yuan/ton level. It is expected that the coke main contract will maintain range - bound trading in the near future [5][32]. - On August 14, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,214 points, with an intraday decline of 6.25%. The anti - involution policies in the coal industry are being gradually implemented. As the futures price returns to a high level, market competition has increased. It is expected that coking coal will maintain range - bound trading in the short term, and the key lies in whether the anti - involution rectification will have a long - term and significant impact on coking coal supply [6][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a 4.7% increase in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output; and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a 4.1% decrease in daily output [8]. - On August 14, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of Meng 5 clean coal was 119.6 US dollars/ton, and all 19,200 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of 131.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.4 US dollars/ton from the previous day [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 3.52% | - 13.02% | - 20.11% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 4.23% | 5.71% | - 8.64% | - 13.95% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 3.48% | 3.48% | 0.85% | - 16.20% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,560 yuan/ton | 2.63% | 4.70% | 4.70% | - 12.85% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,630 yuan/ton | - 1.21% | - 1.21% | 6.54% | - 11.89% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,707.0 yuan/ton | - 4.32% | 1,752.0 yuan/ton | 1,679.5 yuan/ton | 31,744 | - 3,933 | 37,673 | - 1,034 | | Coking Coal | | 1,214.0 points | - 6.25% | 1,256.5 points | 1,192.5 points | 2,526,893 | - 157,706 | 660,629 | - 24,908 | [13] Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, port, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal inventory, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] Market Outlook - Coke: The main contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the near future due to the stable supply - demand situation and cost - end disturbances [5][32]. - Coking Coal: It is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term, and the key lies in the long - term impact of anti - involution rectification on coking coal supply [6][33].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is undergoing significant policy changes aimed at preventing market "involution" and low-price competition, with regulations set to take effect from July 2024 and July 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The coal market is shifting from a tight supply situation to a relatively loose one due to slow demand growth and increased supply from high-quality production [2][6]. - **Price Trends**: Power coal prices are expected to rise during the peak summer months, potentially reaching 750 RMB/ton by mid-September, before stabilizing with minor fluctuations [1][11]. - **Supply Constraints**: New safety regulations for coal mines will limit production capacity, particularly for mines affected by rock pressure, which may lead to the closure or restructuring of smaller mines [1][9][10]. - **Demand Forecast**: National coal consumption is projected to grow by 1-2% in 2025, reaching approximately 4.7 billion tons, with new supply additions of about 10-20 million tons [1][11]. - **Regulatory Impact**: The 2025 coal mine safety regulations will enforce stricter standards, including a reduction in gas management standards, which may further impact production levels [9][10]. Additional Important Content - **Temporary Capacity Adjustments**: The exit of temporary and pre-approved production capacities will be dynamic, with expectations of 50-60 million tons of capacity exiting in Inner Mongolia by year-end, while overall capacity remains around 1.2 billion tons [12][13]. - **Import Policies**: China has strict import policies for low-quality coal, but the volume of imported coal is expected to increase due to price advantages returning, particularly from Russia and Australia [14]. - **Future of Reserve Capacity**: The development of reserve capacity systems remains uncertain, pending further policy guidance from the government [15]. - **Regional Production Capacity**: As of June 2023, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces have significant production capacities, but these figures are subject to change due to ongoing adjustments and regulatory impacts [16]. - **Long-term Contracts**: The long-term contract system will continue, with the benchmark price of 675 RMB/ton unlikely to change in the near term due to thorough market assessments [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the coal industry, highlighting the interplay between regulatory changes, market dynamics, and future expectations.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 12, the coke main contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 4.50%. The spot market prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Coke supply and demand were basically stable, but the fluctuating coking coal supply at the cost - end supported the coke futures. The 90 - day extension of the tariff exemption period between China and the US and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" drove the coke main contract to run strongly [3][31]. - On August 12, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,313 points, with an intraday increase of 6.97%. The spot price at the Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. The impact of the anti - involution policy in the coal industry was still fermenting, and domestic coking coal production declined. Considering that the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - China adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US. Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff rate on US goods was suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate was retained [7]. - On August 12, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market increased by 10 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur primary coking coal being 1,260 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market - Coke: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, up 2.82% week - on - week. - Coking coal: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,190 yuan/ton, up 3.48% week - on - week. The prices of Australian - produced and Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port also showed different degrees of change [9]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the main contract was 1,812 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4.50%. The trading volume was 34,602, and the open interest was 36,790, with a difference of +4,726 compared to the previous trading day. - Coking coal: The closing price of the main contract was 1,313 points, with an increase of 6.97%. The trading volume was 2,198,089, and the open interest was 718,946, with a difference of +28,210 compared to the previous trading day [12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of independent coking plants, ports, and steel mills, as well as other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant operation [13][19][25]. Market Outlook - Coke is expected to maintain a strong trend due to cost - end support and positive market sentiment. Coking coal is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend considering the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term [31][32].

Report Overview - The report is a coal and coke daily report dated August 11, 2025, focusing on the black metal industry, specifically coal and coke [4]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Coke**: On August 8th week, the combined daily coke output of independent and steel - mill coking plants was 111.9 million tons, up 0.12 million tons week - on - week. Coke price increase was implemented, and raw material coking coal price stabilized, leading to better profit for coke enterprises. The latest independent coking plant's ton - coke profit was - 16 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons, down 0.39 million tons week - on - week. The steel mill profit - making rate improved by 3.03 percentage points to 68.4%. Overall, coke supply and demand were stable this week. Due to coking coal supply disruptions and approaching "Golden September and Silver October", the coke futures main contract was expected to oscillate strongly [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The impact of the anti - involution policy in the coal industry was still fermenting, and domestic coking coal output declined this week. The coking coal futures maintained a strong trend. The domestic coking coal spot market was stable, and Mongolian coal prices did not strengthen again after last week's high - level decline. Overall, coking coal supply shrank and demand increased slightly this week. Whether the anti - involution policy would have a long - term and significant impact on supply was the key. Considering the un - falsified supply - shrinkage expectation, coking coal futures were expected to oscillate strongly [6][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - **Automobile Sales**: In July, 2.593 million vehicles were sold, a 14.7% year - on - year increase. It was the traditional off - season, with production and sales slowing down month - on - month. However, policies and new models helped the market grow year - on - year. New energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly, and vehicle exports were stable [8]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On August 11th, coking coal prices in Lvliang Liulin market dropped. Low - sulfur prime coking coal fell 50 yuan/ton to 1350 yuan/ton, and medium - sulfur lean coal fell 100 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke for平仓 was 1470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week and month - on - month, down 13.02% year - on - year and 24.23% compared to the same period. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke for出库 was 1440 yuan/ton, up 1.41% week - on - week, 2.86% month - on - month, down 11.11% year - on - year and 19.10% compared to the same period [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1150 yuan/ton, down 0.86% week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, down 2.54% year - on - year and 20.69% compared to the same period. Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1540 yuan/ton, up 0.65% week - on - week, 3.36% month - on - month and year - on - year, down 22.22% compared to the same period. Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and month - on - month, up 7.84% year - on - year, down 13.16% compared to the same period [10]. 3. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active contract was 1681.0 yuan/ton, up 1.97%. The highest price was 1694.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1628.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 16,480, down 108, and the open interest was 18,479, down 929 [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active contract was 1256.0 yuan/ton, up 2.99%. The highest price was 1264.5 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1185.5 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2,366,892, up 267,012, and the open interest was 690,736, up 30,480 [13]. 4. Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts showed the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts presented the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants over the years [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Included Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation charts [25][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The coke futures had been rising driven by strong expectations, but after the short - term market sentiment was released, they faced a periodic correction as the actual impact of coal mine over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coke output of independent and steel - mill coking plants increased week - on - week, while the ton - coke profit of independent sample coking plants decreased. The daily average iron - water output of steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the same period last year [3][27]. - The coal industry's anti - involution policy expectations were gradually realized. After the optimistic sentiment about coking coal was released, its price started a periodic adjustment as the actual impact of over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coking coal output of mines increased week - on - week, imports from Mongolia recovered, and the demand for coking coal, reflected by coke output, also increased week - on - week [4][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading limit for the coking coal futures JM2509 contract. From the trading time on July 29, 2025 (i.e., the night trading session on July 28), non - futures company members or clients' single - day opening volume on the JM2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on other contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots. Hedging and market - making trading are not subject to these limits [5]. - In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1647.4 billion yuan, with railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation investments of 355.9 billion yuan, 1129.1 billion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [6]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - position was 1,320 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 8.20%, a month - on - month increase of 8.20%, a year - on - year decrease of 21.89%, and a decrease of 35.29% compared to the same period last year. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse was 1,420 yuan, with corresponding changes of 11.81%, 22.41%, - 12.35%, and - 24.47% [7]. - Coking coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,100 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 15.79%, a month - on - month increase of 27.17%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.78%, and a decrease of 29.49% compared to the same period last year. The prices of Australian - produced and Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port also had different degrees of price changes [7]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,608.5 yuan, with a decline of 7.98%, a highest price of 1,749.0 yuan, a lowest price of 1,608.5 yuan, a trading volume of 62,942 lots (a decrease of 2,788 lots), and an open interest of 33,534 lots (a decrease of 3,861 lots) [10]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,100.5 yuan, with a decline of 11.00%, a highest price of 1,288.5 yuan, a lowest price of 1,100.5 yuan, a trading volume of 3,461,352 lots (an increase of 1,272,139 lots), and an open interest of 393,117 lots (a decrease of 126,188 lots) [10]. Related Charts - A series of charts showed the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, and mines) over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [11][16][22]. - Other charts presented the production situation of domestic steel mills, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, the production situation of coal - washing plants, and the operation situation of coking plants, including indicators such as blast - furnace operating rate, steel - mill profitability, ton - coke profit, and coke - oven capacity utilization [23][24][26]. 后市研判 (Future Market Judgment) - Coke: The situation of production, profit, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the short - term market sentiment was released, coke futures faced a periodic correction [27]. - Coking coal: The situation of production, imports, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the optimistic sentiment was released, coking coal prices started a periodic adjustment [27].