Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal prices has led to regulatory intervention by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, implementing trading limits to curb speculation, resulting in a significant price correction for both coking coal and coke futures [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures experienced a dramatic increase, rising by 333 points or 36% in a week, with trading limits imposed on July 29 to control excessive speculation [2][3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has set daily opening limits for non-futures company members at 500 lots for the JM2509 contract and 2000 lots for other contracts [2]. - The market sentiment shifted rapidly as speculative trading turned, leading to a strong reaction against previous bullish trends [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Coking coal and coke production data indicate a mixed supply situation, with coking coal inventories at 536 million tons, down 13%, and premium coal inventories at 278.4 million tons, down 18%, marking a nine-month low [3][4]. - Steel mills are maintaining high production levels, with iron water output at over 242 million tons, contributing to increased demand for coking coal despite high prices [2][4]. - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market remains strong, with downstream purchasing activity increasing, although the pace of procurement for high-priced coal has slowed [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Analysts expect short-term volatility in the market, with the potential for price adjustments following the recent rapid increases [5][6]. - The focus is shifting from speculative trading to fundamental supply and demand dynamics, as the market adjusts to regulatory measures and the impact of production checks on coal mines [6]. - The current trading environment is characterized by intense competition, with expectations of price corrections in the near term as market participants await new driving factors [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The coke futures had been rising driven by strong expectations, but after the short - term market sentiment was released, they faced a periodic correction as the actual impact of coal mine over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coke output of independent and steel - mill coking plants increased week - on - week, while the ton - coke profit of independent sample coking plants decreased. The daily average iron - water output of steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the same period last year [3][27]. - The coal industry's anti - involution policy expectations were gradually realized. After the optimistic sentiment about coking coal was released, its price started a periodic adjustment as the actual impact of over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coking coal output of mines increased week - on - week, imports from Mongolia recovered, and the demand for coking coal, reflected by coke output, also increased week - on - week [4][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading limit for the coking coal futures JM2509 contract. From the trading time on July 29, 2025 (i.e., the night trading session on July 28), non - futures company members or clients' single - day opening volume on the JM2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on other contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots. Hedging and market - making trading are not subject to these limits [5]. - In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1647.4 billion yuan, with railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation investments of 355.9 billion yuan, 1129.1 billion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [6]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - position was 1,320 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 8.20%, a month - on - month increase of 8.20%, a year - on - year decrease of 21.89%, and a decrease of 35.29% compared to the same period last year. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse was 1,420 yuan, with corresponding changes of 11.81%, 22.41%, - 12.35%, and - 24.47% [7]. - Coking coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,100 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 15.79%, a month - on - month increase of 27.17%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.78%, and a decrease of 29.49% compared to the same period last year. The prices of Australian - produced and Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port also had different degrees of price changes [7]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,608.5 yuan, with a decline of 7.98%, a highest price of 1,749.0 yuan, a lowest price of 1,608.5 yuan, a trading volume of 62,942 lots (a decrease of 2,788 lots), and an open interest of 33,534 lots (a decrease of 3,861 lots) [10]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,100.5 yuan, with a decline of 11.00%, a highest price of 1,288.5 yuan, a lowest price of 1,100.5 yuan, a trading volume of 3,461,352 lots (an increase of 1,272,139 lots), and an open interest of 393,117 lots (a decrease of 126,188 lots) [10]. Related Charts - A series of charts showed the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, and mines) over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [11][16][22]. - Other charts presented the production situation of domestic steel mills, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, the production situation of coal - washing plants, and the operation situation of coking plants, including indicators such as blast - furnace operating rate, steel - mill profitability, ton - coke profit, and coke - oven capacity utilization [23][24][26]. 后市研判 (Future Market Judgment) - Coke: The situation of production, profit, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the short - term market sentiment was released, coke futures faced a periodic correction [27]. - Coking coal: The situation of production, imports, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the optimistic sentiment was released, coking coal prices started a periodic adjustment [27].