Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing the end, so the driving force for coal price increase is not strong. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally declined, with coal and coke leading the decline, and the night session continued to be weak. In the spot market, the price of domestic medium and low sulfur coking coal increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton last week and remained weakly stable this week. The price of imported Mongolian No. 5 raw coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton last week, while the forward price of Australian coal increased by 18 US dollars/ton. The increase of coke price is still under game [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: This month, coal mines have increased production to cope with the output contraction caused by the Spring Festival holiday, which is in line with the seasonal pattern of previous years. It is expected that private coal mines will gradually stop production next week. Last week, the output of raw coal and clean coal in coking coal mines increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, and the clean coal inventory changed from decreasing to slightly increasing. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of daily average pig iron output has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 0.09 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.65 million tons compared with the same period last year. The procurement of raw materials by downstream coking and steel enterprises is still slow, and the available days of in-plant raw material inventory are generally lower than the same period of previous years. The auction failure rate in the market has increased significantly this week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 26, the coke main contract closed at 1,619 yuan/ton, down 1.34% intraday. The position volume of the main contract was 35,200 lots, with a net increase of 768 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was flat week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port decreased by 0.68%. The strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled, weakening the cost support for coke, and the futures main contract continued to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the actual supply of coking coal [6][34]. - On November 26, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,084.5 points, down 1.14% intraday. The position volume of the main contract was 476,400 lots, with a net decrease of 20,519 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was flat week - on - week. Since the safety production annual assessment inspection started in November, the coking coal output has increased instead of decreasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has accelerated, weakening the supply support. The futures main contract continued to correct, but the sustainability of the downward trend needs further observation considering the possible decline in coal mine output after the year - end production target is achieved and the Politburo meeting in December [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In mid - November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.43 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 194,300 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The average daily output of pig iron was 179,700 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the average daily output of steel products was 192,400 tons, a 2.1% increase [8]. - On November 26, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,580 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Comparison | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Flat - Price) | 1,670 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Out - of - Warehouse Price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | - 0.68% | - 5.16% | - 9.26% | - 13.02% | | Mongolian Coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,280 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 7.91% | +8.47% | - 5.19% | | Australian - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,580 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | - 4.82% | +6.04% | - 4.24% | | Shanxi - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,790 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +2.87% | +16.99% | +5.29% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,619.0 | - 1.34% | 1,640.5 | 1,581.0 | 25,621 | 9,236 | 35,152 | 768 | | Coking Coal | | 1,084.5 | - 1.14% | 1,090.0 | 1,053.5 | 708,590 | 148,408 | 476,434 | - 20,519 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlook is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the weakening cost support for coke due to the cooling supply expectation of coking coal and the weakening supply support for coking coal itself, while the downward sustainability of coking coal futures needs further observation [6][34]