Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing the end, so the driving force for coal price increase is not strong. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally declined, with coal and coke leading the decline, and the night session continued to be weak. In the spot market, the price of domestic medium and low sulfur coking coal increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton last week and remained weakly stable this week. The price of imported Mongolian No. 5 raw coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton last week, while the forward price of Australian coal increased by 18 US dollars/ton. The increase of coke price is still under game [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: This month, coal mines have increased production to cope with the output contraction caused by the Spring Festival holiday, which is in line with the seasonal pattern of previous years. It is expected that private coal mines will gradually stop production next week. Last week, the output of raw coal and clean coal in coking coal mines increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, and the clean coal inventory changed from decreasing to slightly increasing. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of daily average pig iron output has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 0.09 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.65 million tons compared with the same period last year. The procurement of raw materials by downstream coking and steel enterprises is still slow, and the available days of in-plant raw material inventory are generally lower than the same period of previous years. The auction failure rate in the market has increased significantly this week [3]

消息面 1月21日蒙古国ETT公司炼焦煤进行线上竞拍，蒙5#原煤A13.5、V28、S1.0、G75、Mt3起拍价111.3美元/吨，挂牌数量6.4万吨全部成交，成交价 126.3美元/吨，以上价格均不含税。供货地点为中国甘其毛都口岸监管区，供货时间为付款后98天，最后供应时间为2026年4月30日。 日内价格震荡下行。昨日蒙煤通关量1440车。炼焦煤矿产量大幅抬升，现货竞拍成交改善，在盘面价格抬升的带动下，成交价格有所抬升，终端 库存大幅增加。炼焦煤总库存小幅抬升，产端库存小幅下降，体现出市场冬储的动作。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水维持淡季水平，观 察冬储是否继续进行，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪仍浓。焦煤盘面对蒙煤升水，市场对煤炭相关政策有一定预期，不过价格在总库 存抬升以及蒙煤通关数据较高的影响下大概率偏弱震荡为主。 机构观点 华泰期货： 蒙煤通关维持高位，国内煤矿产量回升，焦煤现货供应充足，价格上涨乏力，削弱了对焦炭的成本支撑。短期基本面矛盾相对可控，距离春节还 有三周，节前仍有补库预期存在，叠加动力煤价格止跌反弹，预计短期焦煤下行空间有限，维持震荡运行。关注焦煤供应政策、钢厂利润、焦化 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's positive statements in its meeting have boosted market sentiment. After the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The downstream's pre - holiday restocking of raw materials supports the upstream's price - holding confidence. The short - term market price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, maintaining high volatility. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has been active recently, with the order volume at the mine mouth rebounding. Coal prices in many places have rebounded from low levels, and the quoted price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port has increased by more than 100 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise coke prices, with dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented from January 15 [2] Import Data - In December 2025, China imported 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month increase of 33% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, hitting a record high for monthly imports. The annual cumulative import was about 490 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [2] Fundamental Situation - After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. This week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal has increased to 1.978 million tons and 0.768 million tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at mines has increased, while the clean coal inventory has further decreased. The downstream coke and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm for raw materials [2] - Last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 164,600 tons, 37,400 tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [2] Demand Situation - In the past two weeks, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded, and the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9, it was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 51,300 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and slight upward trend in the short term, and the steel mills' restocking rhythm for raw materials is expected to accelerate in the later stage, supporting the upstream's price - holding confidence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the significant increase in coking coal prices, driven by the release of the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" and the anticipation of policy changes that may elevate dual-coke prices in the short term [3][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - On December 18, the main coking coal contract rose over 4%, positively impacting the coal chemical and black products sectors [3][7]. - The newly published benchmark levels include coal consumption for coal-fired power generation and coal-to-natural gas processes, aiming to align with advanced efficiency indicators and strict pollutant emission requirements [3][7]. - Recent policies have emphasized "anti-involution," which is expected to raise dual-coke prices, leading to a short-term rebound in the market [3][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices for various coal types have seen adjustments, with Shanxi Linfen region's肥原煤 (S4, G95, recovery 35-40) decreasing by 21-49 yuan to a factory price of 719-760 yuan/ton [3][7]. - Prices for coal at Ganqimaodu port showed a decline, with Mongolian 5 raw coal priced at 919 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan) and Mongolian 3 premium coal at 1035 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan) [3][7]. - Supply remains tight due to frequent safety inspections and the completion of annual production tasks, with many companies focusing on depleting existing inventories [3][7]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand for coking coal has weakened as steel mills undergo maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in molten iron production [3][7]. - Although coking steel inventories are at low levels, limited profits have resulted in a lack of substantial replenishment plans from downstream sectors [3][7].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply concerns, with a focus on maintaining energy supply during the heating season [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Prices and Trends - In the Luliang region, the price of primary coking coal has increased by 10 yuan to 1650 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnam's coal imports reached 4.8284 million tons in October 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 21.99% and a year-on-year increase of 11.27% [1] - From January to October 2025, Vietnam's total coal imports amounted to 55.5707 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.33% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a policy vacuum, weak terminal demand, and concerns over coal supply, leading to a pullback in the double焦盘面 [2] - Despite tight supply conditions for coking coal, demand remains weak, and inventory levels are accumulating but remain low, limiting the downward price adjustment space [3] - The strategy suggests observing for signs of price stabilization and taking advantage of potential buying opportunities during coking coal pullbacks [2]

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 796.0 yuan, with a current price of 778.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.11% [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term outlook for coking coal is expected to be volatile [1] - Guantong Futures indicates that the fundamental outlook remains loose, and the long-term trend for coking coal is still bearish [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, high-sulfur coking coal prices in Shanxi's Linfen region have decreased by 56-70 yuan, now priced at 680-744 yuan per ton [1] - The Inner Mongolia market is showing weak performance, with prices for Mongolian raw coal and refined coal declining by 5 and 7 yuan respectively, leading to a lack of market transactions [1] - On the supply side, safety incidents in some coal mines have led to production halts and restrictions, resulting in a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading segment [1] Group 3 - Demand for coking coal is expected to decrease as major steel mills are reducing coking coal procurement due to falling iron water production [1] - The steel industry is experiencing a high inventory of coking coal, and the average daily production of molten iron is declining, which weakens the demand for coking coal [1] - Overall, while there is a short-term rebound in coking coal prices due to market stimuli, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to a loose fundamental environment [1]