近期，焦煤期现货价格均出现明显回调。其中，2601合约跌幅最大，远月合约次之；现货市场蒙煤表现 相对较弱，动力煤跌幅最小，澳煤则逆势走强。市场对本轮焦煤下跌的主流逻辑分析可归纳为以下三 点： 一是仓单交割压力。近几年焦煤常呈现贴水交割特征。以蒙5仓单为例，按当前口岸蒙5原煤952元／吨 的价格折算，理论仓单成本约1050元／吨，但2601合约仍贴水约100元／吨。这主要是因为交割仓单并 非单一蒙5洗精煤，而是掺配其他煤种的混合品。该类仓单对使用者而言性价比不高，甚至需额外增加 处理成本，导致买方接货意愿偏低，形成交割贴水。在供需不特别紧张时，这一现象被放大，形成盘面 上的"空挤多"压力。 二是蒙煤增量与铁水减产相结合。11月以来，蒙煤通关量增长显著，三口岸周均通关车数接近14000 辆，环比增长58%，远超市场预期，此前蒙5结构性短缺逻辑被扭转。与此同时，下游铁水持续减产， 且伴随刚需走弱，补库需求也大幅转淡。10月下游曾有一轮集中采购，但进入11月后，冬储意愿明显回 落，焦化企业甚至逆季节性去库。焦煤价格下跌进一步加剧观望情绪，补库进程延后。供增需减之下， 焦煤库存出现明显累积，且库存多积累于上游煤矿，促使 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is now aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. April's exports were 26.53 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year decline and a 12.3% month-on-month decline [2][6]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle port coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1), while European ARA port coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6) [35]. The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $87.60 per ton (down 1.4) [35]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].