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Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in coking coal futures and spot prices, with the largest drop in the 2601 contract and weaker performance in the spot market for Mongolian coal, while Australian coal shows strength [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Three main factors contributing to the decline in coking coal prices: 1. Delivery pressure from warehouse receipts, with Mongolian coal showing a theoretical cost of approximately 1050 CNY/ton while the 2601 contract is still at a discount of about 100 CNY/ton [1] 2. Increased supply of Mongolian coal coinciding with reduced iron and steel production, leading to a significant rise in the number of trucks crossing the border and a decrease in downstream demand [2] 3. Weakness in the thermal coal market, with higher-than-average temperatures leading to lower daily consumption and a negative year-on-year growth rate in thermal power generation [2] Group 2: Price Analysis - The impact of the three factors on coking coal futures pricing is notable, with a basis change leading to a drop of approximately 100 CNY/ton due to warehouse receipts [3] - Iron and steel production has decreased by about 19,000 tons since early November, with expectations of maintaining production levels above 2.3 million tons per day [3] - Current spot prices are roughly in line with last year's levels, indicating a low valuation for spot prices despite an expected inventory accumulation of 2.7 million tons by the end of December [3] Group 3: Comparative Price Movements - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal has fluctuated around 1.73, with a recent drop indicating that coking coal has decreased more than thermal coal [4] - The estimated impact of thermal coal price declines on coking coal prices ranges from 0 to 100 CNY/ton, suggesting that the primary driver of the recent price drop is not solely linked to thermal coal [4] - The significant drop in coking coal prices is attributed to warehouse factors, thermal coal price movements, and market sentiment, with respective contributions of 26.3%, 19.7%, and 53.9% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is now aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. April's exports were 26.53 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year decline and a 12.3% month-on-month decline [2][6]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle port coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1), while European ARA port coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6) [35]. The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $87.60 per ton (down 1.4) [35]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].