Group 1 - The overall performance of the "China Coal Price Index" is strong, with the spot index at 1209 points, up 15 points (1.26%), the bidding index at 1296 points, up 44 points (3.51%), and the long-term contract index remaining flat at 1109 points [1] - Downstream steel prices are also performing strongly, with an increase in production for all steel varieties except cold-rolled, particularly notable in rebar production. There is a pre-season rush in demand, leading to continued growth in construction and plate consumption [3] - The supply-demand balance for steel has improved, supported by strong raw material prices for coking coal and coke, which bolster steel price costs [3] Group 2 - Coking coal prices are also strong, with limited production release from major coal mining areas, maintaining a tight supply situation. Steel companies are primarily engaged in essential procurement of coking coal [5] - The coking coal supply-demand structure is tight, with continuous depletion of inventory at production sites and rising online auction prices. However, many steel companies are experiencing low profit levels, leading to reduced willingness to accept deliveries, suggesting potential narrowing of price increases in the future [5] - The coking industry is seeing improved profits, maintaining normal production levels, and a tight supply-demand situation for coke, with smooth shipments and low inventory levels. A second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, indicating expectations for continued strong pricing [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in the "China Coal Price Index" for the week of August 29 to September 4, with specific indices showing mixed trends [1] - The long-term contract index reported at 1062 points, an increase of 34 points or 3.31% from the previous period [1] - The spot index reached 1149 points, up by 25 points or 2.22% compared to the last period [1] - The auction index fell to 1174 points, down by 11 points or 0.93% from the previous period [1] Group 2 - Downstream steel prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a decrease in overall steel mill operating rates due to production restrictions in North China [3] - Both construction materials and plate consumption have shown a decline, reflecting unstable demand during the seasonal transition [3] - The current market conditions indicate that low-priced resources are selling reasonably well, while high-priced resources are struggling to find buyers [3] Group 3 - The midstream coke prices are stable, with a slight decrease in overall supply [4] - Steel mills maintain low coke inventories, and the decline in operating rates has not significantly impacted their willingness to replenish stocks [4] - The supply-demand structure for coke is easing, but previous price increase requests from coke producers have not been met by steel mills, suggesting future prices may remain stable [4] Group 4 - The upstream coking coal auction prices have slightly decreased, with tight supply conditions continuing in major production areas [5] - The weakening operating conditions of steel companies have led to reduced purchasing sentiment for coking coal [5] - Despite the overall balance in supply and demand for coking coal, the market sentiment has weakened, resulting in increased instances of auction failures and lower transaction prices [5]

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业绩同环比下滑，寻找相对确定性投资机会。据 CCTD 中国煤炭市场网， 2024 年煤炭全行业实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with prices anticipated to rebound due to macroeconomic improvements and policy support [4][7] - The report highlights the resilience of the coal sector amidst price fluctuations and emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the coal-coke-steel supply chain [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: As of March 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 671 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.47%) from the previous week, while the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [4][13] - **Supply and Demand**: The report notes a slight decrease in overall supply due to some coal mines halting production, while downstream demand is expected to increase as construction activities resume [4][36] - **Inventory Analysis**: The total inventory at major ports shows a mixed trend, with southern ports decreasing by 1.04% and northern ports increasing by 0.77% [4][43] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.86% compared to a 1.60% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][57] 3. Recent Events - **Company Announcements**: China Shenhua reported a revenue of 338.375 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, while China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 189.399 billion CNY, down 1.9% year-on-year [4][62][63] - **Policy Developments**: The report mentions the government's initiatives to support the coal industry, including a focus on traditional industry upgrades and demand expansion [4][7]