期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：焦煤 11 月以来持续回调，主因是供应端分歧加大。一方面，国家发改委视频会议强 调能源保供，且钢联数据显示上周 523 家炼焦煤矿产量环比改善。另一方面，自 7 月国家能源 局要求煤矿产能核查以后，煤炭行业反内卷缺乏新增政策利好。焦煤供应端强预期放缓，焦煤 期货在 10 月底涨至震荡区间上沿后，进一步向上突破的驱动不足，开始持续回调。不过，12 月 政治局会议预期和年末煤矿产量收缩预期仍有待兑现，关注主力合约在震荡区间下沿支撑。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: The short - term fundamentals of coke have improved, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. There are still concerns about demand, and the market's divergence on the previous major upward driver, "cost - side support," has increased. The coke futures are in a volatile correction. As of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants decreased by 0.51 tons week - on - week to 109.17 tons, while the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.66 tons week - on - week to 236.88 tons. The fourth price increase of coke was difficult to implement, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with expected improvement in coking enterprise profits [6][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction mainly due to increased divergence on the supply side. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved last week. Also, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry's anti - involution since July. The strong supply - side expectation of coking coal has slowed down. After the coking coal futures reached the upper limit of the oscillation range at the end of October, the driving force for further upward breakthrough was insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the contraction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be realized, and attention should be paid to the support of the main contract at the lower limit of the oscillation range [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - On November 19, the Office of the Command for in - depth Pollution Prevention and Control in Jiangsu Province issued a notice to start a yellow alert for heavy pollution weather in 7 cities including Xuzhou from 10:00 on November 20 [8]. - On November 20, the prices of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable, with the price of prime coking coal at 1,645 yuan/ton and fat coal at 1,630 yuan/ton, both ex - factory prices including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 11.83% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1,600 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | - 3.61% | +7.38% | - 4.76% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1,830 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +5.17% | +19.61% | +7.65% | [10] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [13][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [26][28][31]. Market Outlook The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term improvement but limited sustainability of coke fundamentals and the continuous correction of coking coal due to supply - side divergence [32].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry in China, particularly the implications of the National Energy Administration's (NEA) recent coal mine production inspection and its impact on coal supply and prices [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inspection Initiation**: The NEA has launched a coal mine production inspection aimed at regulating coal production capacity, particularly focusing on mines exceeding their approved production capacity by 10% in the first half of 2025, which may lead to shutdowns [1][4][13]. - **Pre-Approved Capacity Policy**: Initiated in 2022 to ensure energy supply, approximately 40% of the pre-approved capacity has not completed legalization procedures, which could affect future coal production [1][8]. - **High Replacement Indicator Costs**: The high costs associated with coal mine capacity replacement indicators and incomplete environmental assessments have decreased the willingness of coal companies to purchase these indicators, leading to some mines ceasing operations due to losses [1][9][10]. - **Market Reaction**: The capital market reacted strongly to the inspection announcement, with coal stocks rising by 5.78%, driven by expectations of reduced coal supply [3][27]. - **Production Utilization Rate**: The national coal production utilization rate fell below 70% in the first half of 2025, indicating that overproduction is not widespread, primarily due to declining coal prices leading to increased losses for companies [1][19][25]. - **Future Price Expectations**: The coal market is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with prices anticipated to rise above 700 yuan, driven by supply constraints and regulatory measures [27][28]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-Term Demand Outlook**: Coal consumption is projected to peak around 2028 and will not significantly decline during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with demand expected to remain stable until 2030 or even 2031-32 [2][22][24]. - **Regulatory Consistency**: There is no conflict between the NEA's supply management and inspection policies, both aiming to ensure reasonable and legal production capacity [23]. - **Impact of Supply Control**: The initiation of supply control measures indicates a stronger expectation of marginal supply contraction, with a higher likelihood of non-compliant capacity exiting the market [31]. - **Data Reporting Issues**: Companies may report production data cautiously, leading to discrepancies between actual production and reported figures, complicating the assessment of overproduction [30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the coal industry, highlighting regulatory changes, market reactions, and future expectations.