1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively balanced. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal futures price has corrected. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented. In the medium term, due to the impact of policies such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disrupted, and the central price of coking coal will gradually rise. One can wait for adjustments and go long on far - month contracts at low prices. [4] - For trading strategies, maintain the idea of going long at low prices for single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Maintain the idea of going long at low prices [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [6] - **Options**: Wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: This week, the production of coking coal mines increased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.21% (+1.48%). However, after the coal mine accident in Fujian, it is expected that national coal mine safety work will be tightened, restricting the recovery of coal mine capacity utilization. The import of Mongolian coal through the Ganqimaodu Port has a high number of customs - cleared vehicles, and it is expected to remain at a high level next week. [4][8] - **Demand**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). With the approaching military parade, the output of coking enterprises in Tangshan and other places is expected to decline, but the output in other regions is expected to increase slightly. The overall demand for coking coal has certain resilience. [8] - **Coke** - **Supply**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). It is expected that the coke output will remain stable next week. [9] - **Demand**: This week, the molten iron output increased slightly, with the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills reaching 240.75 (+0.09). Currently, steel mills generally have profits, and the inventory pressure of steel products is not large. Considering the approaching military parade, the molten iron output is expected to decline slightly next week, but the demand for raw materials remains resilient. [9] - **Price Analysis** - **Coking Coal**: This week, the coking coal price still showed mixed trends, with the speculative sentiment weakening and the downstream procurement enthusiasm decreasing. It is expected that the coking coal spot price will continue to show mixed trends next week without an obvious trend. [8] - **Coke**: This week, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. After seven rounds of increases, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient, and it is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week. [9] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Data** - **Price**: Shanxi coal warehouse - receipt price is 1180 yuan/ton, Meng 5 warehouse - receipt price is 1099 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) warehouse - receipt price is 1235 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply** - **Domestic**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average output of raw coal was 191.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3 tons. [12] - **Import**: The average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal was 1263 this week, a month - on - month increase of 240. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 3679.0 (-0.7) tons this week. The inventory of coal mines increased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory of steel mills and ports increased. [8] - **Coke Data** - **Price**: The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1655 yuan/ton, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Rizhao Port is 1616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1755 yuan/ton. [9] - **Supply**: The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07) tons this week. [9] - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 (+0.09) tons this week. [9] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 942.6 (+0.6) tons this week. The inventory of coking enterprises increased, the inventory of steel mills decreased slightly, and the inventory of ports decreased. [9] - **Profit**: The average national profit per ton of coke was 23 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 42 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 83 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was - 40 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 56 yuan/ton. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the coal industry, highlighting stricter safety regulations, rising coal prices, and the current operational status of coal mines and inventories. Group 1: Safety Regulations - The newly released "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" includes 34 chapters and 777 articles, with 56 new articles and 353 substantial modifications compared to the previous version, marking a significant overhaul [4] - The revision aims to address safety management issues within coal enterprises, particularly the "shoddy management" problem [4] - Current safety inspection conditions remain stringent, as indicated by the low capacity utilization rates of coal mines [4] Group 2: Coal Prices - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port reached 692 RMB/ton, an increase of 18 RMB/ton (+2.61%) week-on-week [5] - The average price of thermal mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 547 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton (+0.74%) [5] - The FOB price of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, was 69 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.05% [5] - In contrast, European natural gas futures and Brent crude oil prices saw declines of 3.68% and 1.11%, respectively [5] Group 3: Operational Status - The capacity utilization rate of 462 thermal coal mines was 93.9%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.54 percentage points but a year-on-year decrease of 1.57 percentage points [6] - The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.7%, down by 0.19 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.14 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Daily average pig iron production remained high at 240.73 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [6] Group 4: Inventory Levels - As of August 15, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.67 million tons, up 3.66% week-on-week and 5.78% year-on-year, indicating high inventory levels [7] - The total coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.635 million tons, down 4.15% week-on-week and 4.64% year-on-year, but still at high levels [7] - Independent coking plants had a coking coal inventory of 8.2941 million tons, down 0.40% week-on-week, while sample steel mills held 8.058 million tons, down 0.35% week-on-week, both at normal levels for this time of year [8]