黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-16 宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 钢材：宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货价格震荡上涨，现货方面，钢材现货成交一般，低价成交尚可，以终端和前期超卖补 库为主，投机情绪一般。全国建材成交11.76万吨，钢银数据显示钢材库存有所增长。 供需与逻辑：当前库存压力下，建材基本面矛盾有所增加，价格表现承压。板材需求韧性仍在，基本面表现平稳， 价格相对偏强，关注需求改善力度。伴随美联储降息概率增长，市场对于后期国内政策加码预期渐浓，同时反内 卷政策和双节补库预期共同刺激，钢材价格表现偏强。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运显著回升，铁矿跟随板块 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商 报价积极性一般，钢厂采购多以刚需为主。供给方面，本期全球铁矿石发运显著回升，全球发运总量3573万吨， 其中巴西和非主流发运明显增长。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2362万吨，周环比减少86万吨。昨日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively balanced. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal futures price has corrected. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented. In the medium term, due to the impact of policies such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disrupted, and the central price of coking coal will gradually rise. One can wait for adjustments and go long on far - month contracts at low prices. [4] - For trading strategies, maintain the idea of going long at low prices for single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Maintain the idea of going long at low prices [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [6] - **Options**: Wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: This week, the production of coking coal mines increased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.21% (+1.48%). However, after the coal mine accident in Fujian, it is expected that national coal mine safety work will be tightened, restricting the recovery of coal mine capacity utilization. The import of Mongolian coal through the Ganqimaodu Port has a high number of customs - cleared vehicles, and it is expected to remain at a high level next week. [4][8] - **Demand**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). With the approaching military parade, the output of coking enterprises in Tangshan and other places is expected to decline, but the output in other regions is expected to increase slightly. The overall demand for coking coal has certain resilience. [8] - **Coke** - **Supply**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). It is expected that the coke output will remain stable next week. [9] - **Demand**: This week, the molten iron output increased slightly, with the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills reaching 240.75 (+0.09). Currently, steel mills generally have profits, and the inventory pressure of steel products is not large. Considering the approaching military parade, the molten iron output is expected to decline slightly next week, but the demand for raw materials remains resilient. [9] - **Price Analysis** - **Coking Coal**: This week, the coking coal price still showed mixed trends, with the speculative sentiment weakening and the downstream procurement enthusiasm decreasing. It is expected that the coking coal spot price will continue to show mixed trends next week without an obvious trend. [8] - **Coke**: This week, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. After seven rounds of increases, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient, and it is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week. [9] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Data** - **Price**: Shanxi coal warehouse - receipt price is 1180 yuan/ton, Meng 5 warehouse - receipt price is 1099 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) warehouse - receipt price is 1235 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply** - **Domestic**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average output of raw coal was 191.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3 tons. [12] - **Import**: The average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal was 1263 this week, a month - on - month increase of 240. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 3679.0 (-0.7) tons this week. The inventory of coal mines increased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory of steel mills and ports increased. [8] - **Coke Data** - **Price**: The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1655 yuan/ton, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Rizhao Port is 1616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1755 yuan/ton. [9] - **Supply**: The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07) tons this week. [9] - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 (+0.09) tons this week. [9] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 942.6 (+0.6) tons this week. The inventory of coking enterprises increased, the inventory of steel mills decreased slightly, and the inventory of ports decreased. [9] - **Profit**: The average national profit per ton of coke was 23 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 42 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 83 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was - 40 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 56 yuan/ton. [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [2] - Iron Ore: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bullish movement [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided, short - term price is expected to move sideways to bullishly [8] 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Inventory is increasing, and the impact of steel mill production restrictions in Tangshan is currently controllable. The fundamentals may improve marginally, but self - initiated production cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the steel futures are supported. Future focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has revised its expectations, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The shipping volume is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the supply is well - supported. The demand is strong, but short - term production in Tangshan is affected by the parade. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are concerns about Mongolian coal transportation, and the futures prices are strongly bullish. The supply of coking coal is insufficient, and the demand for coke is supported by good steel enterprise profits. Attention should be paid to the sixth round of price increase for coke [5][6]. - **Thermal Coal**: The demand is good, and the pit - mouth coal price is firm. The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term. Medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. 3. Summary by Industry Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward. Tangshan issued production restriction notices, with a currently controllable impact. Building materials are in the off - season with increasing inventory, while plates' sentiment has marginally improved due to production restrictions [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' production and sales are in the off - season, and inventory is rising slightly. Plates are affected by Tangshan's production restrictions. Steel mill production restrictions before the parade may improve the fundamentals, but self - initiated cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the fundamentals have few contradictions [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward, and spot prices rose slightly. The shipping volume decreased slightly this period, with a decline in Australia and non - mainstream shipments and an increase in Brazilian shipments. Spot market transactions were few [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Shipping is in line with the seasonal pattern, and supply is well - supported. The iron - making water output is high, and steel mill production enthusiasm is strong. The short - term impact of the parade on Tangshan's rolling mills has not affected blast furnaces. In the long run, the supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices were bullish. The customs clearance volume of imported coal is high, but the restrictions on Mongolian coal transportation may affect short - term supply [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, mine production cuts and rainy seasons have led to low output and insufficient supply. For coke, the new round of price increase needs time to materialize, and the supply pressure has eased, but the output is still lower than last year. The demand is supported by good steel enterprise profits [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways - to - bullish movement for single - side trading of both coking coal and coke, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the price is strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and the demand for restocking is high. At ports, the inventory is decreasing, and the shipping is at a loss. The import cost has increased, and the trading activity is low [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the demand is good due to high temperatures. The price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term, and medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8].

第一部分 前言概要 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 双焦：短期博弈加大 中期跟踪查超产实际影响 黑色板块研发报告 - 银河期货 第 1 页 共 21 页 - 图 1：焦煤主力合约走势 图 2：焦炭主力合约走势 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 基本面情况 7 第 2 页 共 21 页 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图 3：炼焦煤价格指数 单位：元/吨 图 4：中硫主焦煤价格 单位：元/吨 800 1300 1800 2300 2800 3300 3800 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 中硫主焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 6 ：蒙 5 原煤-甘其毛都 单位：元/吨 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 蒙5精煤 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybean situation: It's the U.S. soybean sowing and growing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. The USDA May 2025 report shows the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast is 52.5 bushels/acre, up from 50.7 bushels/acre in 2024/25 [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 2,840 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin 2,940 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Rizhao 2,870 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Dongguan 2,860 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] - Market analysis: There is a phased agreement in Sino - U.S. trade, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariff policies and weather are the main drivers of international soybean prices. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. The high price of soybean meal boosts market transactions, and the downstream feed demand was underestimated. The soybean inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is slow in the short term [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,412 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,290 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: Externally, the Sino - U.S. joint statement on tariff reduction leads to an expectation of loose long - term corn imports, with limited short - term impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has a negative impact on U.S. corn futures prices. Domestically, the supply pressure is relieved as the weather warms up, the planting season arrives, and the remaining grain in the producing areas is basically sold out. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment causes the futures price to decline [3] - Reference view: The short - term downward momentum of the futures price weakens, and there may be a rebound demand after the decline [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,130 - 78,340 yuan, down 250 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff disputes and the U.S. tariff policy fluctuations make the market volatile. Domestic support policies give a positive market expectation. The raw material supply problem persists, and the domestic copper inventory is declining. The game between reality and expectation, and between the domestic and foreign markets makes the market more complex [4] - Reference view: Continue to pay attention to the impact of the moving - average system on copper prices, and set the overall defense line at the upper edge of the moving - average system [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 61,000 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,350 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two is 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5] - Market analysis: The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded. The production is still at a high level, and the supply may increase further. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has decreased overall. Pay attention to the upstream production reduction [5] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It's advisable to go short on rallies [5][6] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan. The Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is dynamically changing, and the inventory level is low. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Due to the declining demand, it's advisable to wait and see until the market stabilizes [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is low, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly at a low level [8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [9] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are intertwined. The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, and the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy and environmental protection restrictions suppress the price increase [9] - Reference view: The iron ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The U.S. - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, and the OPEC+ production increase plan has uncertainties. The supply may shrink. The OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the geopolitical situation is unstable [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 58 - 65 dollars/barrel [10] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The U.S. trade war and tariff policies suppress the rubber price. The supply is abundant as the rubber - producing areas are in the harvesting season. The global supply and demand are both loose [10] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The rubber market is weak overall [10] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [11] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has decreased slightly. The demand is still mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is oscillating weakly at a low level [11] - Reference view: The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate weakly at a low level [11] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,402.50 yuan/ton, down 1.88 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The supply has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market lacks new driving forces [12] - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short term [12]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant price movements in various commodities, particularly the sharp increase in alumina prices due to supply disruptions, while other commodities like lithium carbonate and焦煤 experienced declines [1][2]. - Alumina contracts hit the limit up with a 6.25% increase, driven by supply concerns after Guinea's mining authority ordered a halt at the Axis mine, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons [2]. - The overall commodity futures price index showed a slight decline, with the China Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1355.25 points, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2 - The supply issues in alumina are expected to provide short-term support for prices, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to potential oversupply as production may recover with rising prices [2]. - The double焦 and lithium carbonate prices have reached new lows, with lithium facing a downward spiral due to weak downstream demand [4]. - The egg futures market has seen a decline, with expectations of weak prices continuing due to increasing supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [4].