双焦 2026年1月双焦基本面月报 红塔期货 研究员：赵欧娅 从业资格号：F3067732 投资咨询号：Z0017180 Email：zhaoouya@hongtaqh.com 投资咨询业务资格 云证监许可[2012]291号 仅作参考，请仔细阅读文件末尾【免责声明】 双焦基本面概述 宏观因素 全球流动性趋松 海外主要经济体货币政策趋向宽松为市场提供了流动性支持；国内十五五"规划开局之年，在经济增长承压背景下，积极的 财政政策有望靠前发力，赤字率预计维持较高水平，并辅以适度的货币宽松。 供需情况 需求弱势抑制价格 1月，炼焦煤市场，供需对价格支撑难有明显带动，价格端仍是承压，需关注补库强度带动市场情绪，是否能带动价格企稳反 弹；焦炭市场，高库存和供需宽松格局大概率还是继续抑制着价格空间，而终端钢材淡季需求疲软继续加剧着供需失衡。 国内市场：宏观政策靠前发力。 12月中国制造业PMI录得50.1%，环比上升0.9个百分点，逆周期扩张力度显著，时隔8个月重回扩张区间。同期，非制造业PMI回升至 50.2%，其中建筑业指数大幅上涨3.2个百分点至52.8%，重返扩张区间，而服务业指数仅微升0.2个百分点至49.7% ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-30 原料补库预期，钢价震荡运行 钢材：原料补库预期，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3130元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3287元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般， 上午涨价过程中低价拿货好转，投机情绪增加，午后盘面回落，成交转弱，但依然挺价为主，全天基差先缩后扩。 全国建材成交11.77万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材供需基本面暂无矛盾，保持低产量，低消费，低库存状态。板材依旧受制于高库存压制，价格 边际波动有限，短期市场原料补库预期开启，建材基本面矛盾不足，关注环保及季节性减产情况、需求去库变化、 利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪缓解，矿价小幅上涨 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘796.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、 成交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 供需与逻辑：供需格局持续趋紧，港口库存显著增加，但下游采购需 ...

双焦年报 2025 年 12 月 双焦年报 2025-12 基本面上，供应端，近几年煤炭产量逐步增加，上半年继续保持高增速， 但下半年以来随着反内卷政策持续推进，主产区安全环保检修严格，焦煤产量 维持低位，预计 2026 年政策影响仍存，国内供应增量有限。增量主要来自进 口，其中蒙煤和俄罗斯煤占八成左右，随着中蒙口岸通关能力增加，以及蒙古 和俄罗斯均提出加大对我国煤炭出口，预计 2026 年进口将继续增长。需求端， 国内三大需求房地产持续偏弱，基建增量有限，制造业高增速难以保持，国内 钢材需求有所承压，而钢材出口保持增加，目前国内钢材需求仍将承压运行， 主要增量空间依赖出口市场。库存端，矿山库存压力有所缓解，下游库存维持 中位水平，库存结构相对合理。整体而言，煤焦供需压力仍存，以区间震荡为 主，需关注反内卷政策的执行。 展望明年，中央经济工作会议强调深入推进反内卷，国内煤炭产量将受政 策影响，进口增量可期，而终端需求仍将承压，整体供需或将延续下半年格局， 随着终端需求季节性变化，双焦价格呈现出区间震荡运行。 关注：进口煤供应情况、反内卷政策、终端消费情况 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index fell, and commodities generally strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper rising significantly, while oil prices continued to adjust under the expectation of loose supply and demand. In China, the central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability" [2][3]. - The continued strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation supported the rise of precious metals, and the silver price reached a new high. The central economic work conference released positive signals, and the copper price is expected to continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to inventory reduction, while the alumina price continues to be weak due to oversupply [4][6][8]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the tightening of zinc ore supply and the decline of social inventory. The lead price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to low inventory and differentiated consumption. The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to favorable fundamentals [12][13][14]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to decline weakly due to the weakening of demand. The steel price is expected to fluctuate due to general industrial data. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the weakening of demand in the off - season [16][17][18]. - The soybean meal futures are expected to stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation due to good soybean auction results. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the rise of rapeseed oil and the expected increase in palm oil inventory [21][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest single - week increase in four and a half years. The stock market showed a differentiated trend, and the US dollar index fell to 98.1 after the Fed's interest rate cut [2]. - Domestic: The central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability." The A - share market fell on Thursday, and the bond market continued to rebound and repair [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 2.00% to $4309.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.83% to $63.98 per ounce. The market's bet on the continued interest rate cut in January was strengthened, and the silver price reached a new high, driving the synchronous rise of gold, platinum, and palladium [4]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise, and LME copper broke through the $11,800 line. The macro environment at home and abroad improved, and the supply of concentrates continued to tighten. It is expected that the copper price will continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,970 yuan per ton, up 0.23%. The aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, mainly due to transportation problems in the northwest. The low inventory supported the aluminum price to fluctuate strongly [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,469 yuan per ton, down 1.4%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the market short - selling atmosphere is strong, so the price continues to be weak [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,965 yuan per ton, up 0.36%. The raw material supply is tight, the consumption is weak, and the demand side is waiting and seeing. It is expected that the cast aluminum price will fluctuate at a high level [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first rose and then fell during the day and rebounded sharply at night. The supply of zinc ore continued to tighten, the processing fees at home and abroad were under pressure, and the social inventory decreased. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and sideways at night. The production of primary and secondary lead smelters decreased, and the social inventory was at a low level, but the consumption was differentiated. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and consolidate [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated narrowly during the day and closed up at night. The supply of tin ore was affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, and the demand for AI semiconductors was optimistic. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate strongly [14]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is converging, and the demand is weakening. The establishment of a polysilicon platform company may drag down the short - term demand. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will decline weakly [15][16]. Steel (Spiral and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated and fell. The industrial data was average, and the supply and demand were both weak. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated and fell. The demand was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will be under pressure [18]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures fluctuated weakly. The demand in the off - season was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the double - coke price will fluctuate weakly [19]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed flat, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.35%. The soybean auction results were good, and there was news that the customs clearance time of imported soybeans might be extended. It is expected that the soybean meal futures will stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation [20][21]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 0.44%. The production of Malaysian palm oil in early December increased, and the inventory was expected to rise. The rapeseed oil price rose due to quarantine problems. It is expected that the palm oil price will fluctuate within a range [23][24].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251205 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：日央行加息预期升温，国内债市加速下跌 海外方面，就业数据依旧呈现好坏参半的局面，美国 11 月挑战者裁员 7.1 万人，同比 增速虽放缓至 24%，但规模仍为 2022 年以来同期最高，科技、电信、零售裁员居前。最新 初申失业金人数降至 19.1 万，为 2022 年 9 月来最低，显著好于预期；续申失业金人数回落 至 193.9 万，但仍处相对高位。日元因市场预期日本央行 12 月将加息而走高，长债收益率 飙至数十年新高，日央行或将利率从 0.5%上调至 0.75%，市场关注其后续加息幅度。美元指 数震荡回升至 99，10Y 美债利率升至 4.10%，美股震荡走平，油价涨超 1%，金、铜微跌。 今日关注美国 9 月 PCE 数据。 国内方面，A 股周四缩量震荡整理、结构显著分化，双创板块表现较优，微盘、红利风 格跌幅较大，两市超 3800 只个股收跌、成交额回落至 1.56 万亿，创下 8 月来新低。目前经 济基本面数据偏冷、12 月政策预期不 ...

黑色板块研发报告 双焦 11 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 双焦：市场情绪偏弱 等待新的驱动 第一部分 前言概要 - 银河期货 第 1 页 共 19 页 双焦 11 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 第二部分 基本面情况 11 - 图 1：焦煤主力合约走势 图 2 ：焦炭主力合约走势 第 2 页 共 19 页 黑色板块研发报告 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 11 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 图 3 ：炼焦煤价格指数 单位：元/ 吨 图 4 ：中硫主焦煤价格 单位：元/ 吨 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 炼焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 2800 3300 3800 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 中硫主焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating. Steel prices are also fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Iron ore prices have slightly increased with the rebound of hot metal production, while the price of thermal coal has a complex situation with different trends in production areas, ports, and imports [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3254 yuan/ton. The production, demand, and total inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and spot trading was average. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and demand slightly rebounded. However, there may be a weakening of demand in the off - season. The production of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly. The contradiction in strip steel lies in high inventory and production, and export profit losses suppress steel prices, requiring production cuts to resolve the contradiction. Future attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, inventory, and raw material cost support [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices slightly increased. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.28%. This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2660 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments have continued to decline this week, showing a loose supply situation. With the end of production restrictions in Hebei, hot metal production has been supported, and the current average daily hot metal output has rebounded to a high level over the years. The current relative valuation of the Platts iron ore index is relatively high, and iron ore prices face downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trending direction in the short term under the support of downstream replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to hot metal production, downstream inventory changes, and negotiation situations [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures declined. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas slightly decreased steadily. The coke spot market continued to be strong. For imported Mongolian coal, due to the significant decline in the futures market, port prices were under pressure to adjust downward. Currently, the transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to around 1100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal has dropped to around 1210 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, market sentiment has slightly weakened, rigid demand has declined, and supply has been cut to varying degrees, resulting in a simultaneous tightening of supply and demand. For coking coal, terminal demand has been suppressed, and with the increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, prices are fluctuating. Future attention should be paid to the price trend of thermal coal, coking coal supply, steel mill production cut plans, and macro - policies [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate, and coke is also expected to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In production areas, the prices of main - producing areas have slightly decreased. As the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and some coal mine prices have slightly adjusted downward. Currently, coal mine inventories are not high, and port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, port shipments have increased, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching, and trading activity is low. Traders expect a tight supply - demand situation in winter and maintain firm quotes, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, intensifying the game between buyers and sellers. In terms of imports, the imported coal market has been trending steadily and strongly recently. Imported coal has an obvious price advantage, and terminal users are concentrated in purchasing imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and imported coal prices have followed the upward trend, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: Not provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All products (steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, thermal coal) are rated as "Oscillating Strong" [2][4][7] Core Views - The steel market is influenced by increasing macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating strongly. The iron ore market has a significant increase in shipments, and it follows the sector. The coking coal and coke market has positive sentiment and prices have risen significantly. The thermal coal market has stable chemical terminal procurement, and the origin coal prices are oscillating strongly [1][3][5][8] Summary by Product Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures prices oscillated and rose yesterday. Spot trading was average, with better low - price trading mainly for terminals and pre - oversold restocking. National building material trading volume was 11760 tons, and steel inventories increased. Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions under inventory pressure, while plate demand remains resilient [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, there are stronger expectations for domestic policy stimulus. Anti - involution policies and double - festival restocking expectations stimulate steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices weakened slightly yesterday. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly to 3573000 tons, with notable growth in Brazil and non - mainstream regions. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 86000 tons. National main port iron ore trading volume decreased by 13.90% to 96000 tons, while forward spot trading volume increased by 179.41% to 180500 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments recovered this week, arrivals decreased, and iron - water production increased significantly. Demand remains high, and inventory is at a medium level. Considering double - festival restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. Downstream coke enterprises mainly maintain on - demand procurement. The price of imported Mongolian coal (Meng 5) is around 940 - 960 yuan/ton [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Policy expectations for counter - cyclical adjustment are strong. Fundamentally, production is restricted by over - production inspection policies, and consumption benefits from high iron - water production and pre - festival restocking. Inventory is decreasing, which may trigger price rebounds [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating strongly in unilateral trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, coal prices are rising steadily. Some mines have gradually restored supply after maintenance, and chemical terminal procurement is stable. In the port market, prices rebounded after stopping falling. Inventory did not increase significantly, and some traders were reluctant to sell. Imported high - calorie coal prices were stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap with domestic coal [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply in the production area is recovering slowly. Although daily power coal consumption has decreased, non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short - term, prices will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant [8] - **Strategy**: Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively balanced. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal futures price has corrected. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented. In the medium term, due to the impact of policies such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disrupted, and the central price of coking coal will gradually rise. One can wait for adjustments and go long on far - month contracts at low prices. [4] - For trading strategies, maintain the idea of going long at low prices for single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Maintain the idea of going long at low prices [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [6] - **Options**: Wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: This week, the production of coking coal mines increased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.21% (+1.48%). However, after the coal mine accident in Fujian, it is expected that national coal mine safety work will be tightened, restricting the recovery of coal mine capacity utilization. The import of Mongolian coal through the Ganqimaodu Port has a high number of customs - cleared vehicles, and it is expected to remain at a high level next week. [4][8] - **Demand**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). With the approaching military parade, the output of coking enterprises in Tangshan and other places is expected to decline, but the output in other regions is expected to increase slightly. The overall demand for coking coal has certain resilience. [8] - **Coke** - **Supply**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). It is expected that the coke output will remain stable next week. [9] - **Demand**: This week, the molten iron output increased slightly, with the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills reaching 240.75 (+0.09). Currently, steel mills generally have profits, and the inventory pressure of steel products is not large. Considering the approaching military parade, the molten iron output is expected to decline slightly next week, but the demand for raw materials remains resilient. [9] - **Price Analysis** - **Coking Coal**: This week, the coking coal price still showed mixed trends, with the speculative sentiment weakening and the downstream procurement enthusiasm decreasing. It is expected that the coking coal spot price will continue to show mixed trends next week without an obvious trend. [8] - **Coke**: This week, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. After seven rounds of increases, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient, and it is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week. [9] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Data** - **Price**: Shanxi coal warehouse - receipt price is 1180 yuan/ton, Meng 5 warehouse - receipt price is 1099 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) warehouse - receipt price is 1235 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply** - **Domestic**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average output of raw coal was 191.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3 tons. [12] - **Import**: The average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal was 1263 this week, a month - on - month increase of 240. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 3679.0 (-0.7) tons this week. The inventory of coal mines increased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory of steel mills and ports increased. [8] - **Coke Data** - **Price**: The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1655 yuan/ton, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Rizhao Port is 1616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1755 yuan/ton. [9] - **Supply**: The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07) tons this week. [9] - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 (+0.09) tons this week. [9] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 942.6 (+0.6) tons this week. The inventory of coking enterprises increased, the inventory of steel mills decreased slightly, and the inventory of ports decreased. [9] - **Profit**: The average national profit per ton of coke was 23 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 42 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 83 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was - 40 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 56 yuan/ton. [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [2] - Iron Ore: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bullish movement [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided, short - term price is expected to move sideways to bullishly [8] 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Inventory is increasing, and the impact of steel mill production restrictions in Tangshan is currently controllable. The fundamentals may improve marginally, but self - initiated production cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the steel futures are supported. Future focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has revised its expectations, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The shipping volume is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the supply is well - supported. The demand is strong, but short - term production in Tangshan is affected by the parade. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are concerns about Mongolian coal transportation, and the futures prices are strongly bullish. The supply of coking coal is insufficient, and the demand for coke is supported by good steel enterprise profits. Attention should be paid to the sixth round of price increase for coke [5][6]. - **Thermal Coal**: The demand is good, and the pit - mouth coal price is firm. The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term. Medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. 3. Summary by Industry Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward. Tangshan issued production restriction notices, with a currently controllable impact. Building materials are in the off - season with increasing inventory, while plates' sentiment has marginally improved due to production restrictions [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' production and sales are in the off - season, and inventory is rising slightly. Plates are affected by Tangshan's production restrictions. Steel mill production restrictions before the parade may improve the fundamentals, but self - initiated cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the fundamentals have few contradictions [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward, and spot prices rose slightly. The shipping volume decreased slightly this period, with a decline in Australia and non - mainstream shipments and an increase in Brazilian shipments. Spot market transactions were few [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Shipping is in line with the seasonal pattern, and supply is well - supported. The iron - making water output is high, and steel mill production enthusiasm is strong. The short - term impact of the parade on Tangshan's rolling mills has not affected blast furnaces. In the long run, the supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices were bullish. The customs clearance volume of imported coal is high, but the restrictions on Mongolian coal transportation may affect short - term supply [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, mine production cuts and rainy seasons have led to low output and insufficient supply. For coke, the new round of price increase needs time to materialize, and the supply pressure has eased, but the output is still lower than last year. The demand is supported by good steel enterprise profits [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways - to - bullish movement for single - side trading of both coking coal and coke, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the price is strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and the demand for restocking is high. At ports, the inventory is decreasing, and the shipping is at a loss. The import cost has increased, and the trading activity is low [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the demand is good due to high temperatures. The price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term, and medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8].