Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The night - session of coking coal and coke futures showed a weak trend yesterday, with a slight increase in total positions. This week's data from Mysteel indicates that the total output of the five major steel products remained basically flat week - on - week, the total inventory continued to decline (mainly due to rebar), and the total apparent demand continued to increase. The hot metal output of sample steel mills and the profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly week - on - week, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke continued to recover. Geopolitical conflicts have led to concerns about tightened oil supply, which may indirectly affect the coking coal market with energy attributes, and the substitution effect of coal in the coal - chemical industry is expected to expand the demand for coking coal. Future attention should be paid to changes in hot metal output, mine operation schedules, and geopolitical developments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Price and Trading Volume - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts on the previous day were 1562.0, 1230.0, 1368.5, 1931.0, 1761.0, and 1846.0 respectively, showing decreases compared to the day before, with declines ranging from - 0.60% to - 1.48% [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of different contracts were 5767, 768756, 185491, 66, 14658, and 2664 respectively [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interests were 26012, 383197, 199568, etc., with changes of 715, 492, 11465, etc. [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and their changes were also presented, such as the 1 - 5 month spread having a present value of 240 and an increase of 306 [2]. Spot Price - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, including Mongolian No. 5 coking coal, low - sulfur coking coal, and different grades of coke, were provided. For example, the port self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1308, and some prices had slight increases [2]. Market News - On March 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation held the first enterprise fair competition symposium in 2026, aiming to standardize enterprise competition behavior and build a benign competition ecosystem for enterprises going global. The deputy director emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision, guiding enterprise compliance, and supporting enterprises to expand international markets [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report - The night trading of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend, with the total open interest remaining basically flat compared to the previous period. With the end of environmental production restrictions, the pig iron output increased significantly last week, and the coke output of coking plants and steel mills also increased slightly, leading to an obvious improvement in the rigid demand for coking coal and coke. As the peak season of terminal demand continues, there is still room for an increase in pig iron output. After a sharp rise in the market, the market has been volatile in recent trading days. Before the geopolitical conflict eases, coking coal with energy attributes still has a trading logic of substitution effect in the energy and coal chemical fields. Attention should be paid to the changes in pig iron output, the mining start - up rhythm, and the evolution of the geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Price and Change**: For different contract months (January and September, May), the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates are provided. For example, the January contract of a certain variety had a previous - day closing price of 1571.5, a price increase of 3.5, and an increase rate of 0.22% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contract months are presented, along with the changes in open interest. For instance, the trading volume of the January contract was 8824, and the open interest was 20377, with an increase of 2433 in open interest [2]. - **Spread**: The current spread values and their changes between different contract months are given, such as the spread between January - May, May - September, and September - January contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Prices**: The current prices and price changes of different types of coking coal and coke, including low - sulfur coking coal, Mongolian No. 5 coking coal, Tangshan first - grade coke, etc., are provided. For example, the current price of low - sulfur coking coal is 1240, and the price change is 0 [2]. 3.3 Power Industry Data - As of the end of February 2026, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%, and the installed capacity of wind power was 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to February, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 466 hours, a decrease of 39 hours compared to the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran is in a stage of negotiation while fighting, and the short - term volatility of various assets will remain high. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the short term, and the bond market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. The prices of precious metals, copper, aluminum, and other commodities will be affected by the US - Iran situation and their own fundamentals [2][3]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: Trump said there was "major consensus" in contact with Iran and postponed the attack on Iran's power grid and power generation facilities for 5 days, but Iran denied the contact. The risk assets that had fallen sharply were repaired, the three major US stock indexes rose, international oil prices fell more than 10%, and the yields of 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell from 4.44% to about 4.35%. The situation is still in a stage of negotiation while fighting, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable for oil prices and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: A - shares opened lower and moved lower on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 3.6% to 3813 points. The short - term downward pressure on the domestic stock market may be alleviated, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. The bond market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Pay attention to the industrial enterprise profits from January to February in China this week [3]. Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rebounded from the low level after Trump released the signal of peace talks with Iran. However, the market still doubts whether Trump can end the conflict easily, and the TACO trading will still be repeated. It is too early to say that the adjustment is over [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper rebounded as the US - Iran conflict eased. Trump's statement led to a rebound in risk - related asset prices and a fall in the US dollar index. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may resume operation in 2 - 3 weeks, but the supply growth rate of concentrates this year is still low. It is expected that the copper price will turn to a rebound in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum fluctuated and adjusted. The US - Iran negotiation was in a "Rashomon" situation. The market risk sentiment was released after Trump's statement, but the metal still faced pressure after a small rebound. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory began to decline slightly, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust, with limited adjustment range [8][9]. Alumina - The price of alumina fluctuated strongly in the short term. The Guinea ore export quota policy supported the cost increase of alumina, and there were news of production reduction in some areas. The fundamentals were favorable in the short term, but the upward space was limited in the medium and long term due to the planned new production capacity [10]. Cast Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum fluctuated widely. Trump's statement led to a rebound in metal prices, but the Iranian side denied the negotiation, and the metal still faced pressure. The supply of cast aluminum gradually recovered, and the consumption was weak. It is mainly adjusted by macro - sentiment [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc rebounded weakly. Trump's statement led to a reversal in the trend of stocks, precious metals, and industrial metals. The fundamentals were weakly stable, and the supply side still had pressure. The zinc price was still anchored to the macro situation, and it was expected to be under pressure [12]. Lead - The price of lead fluctuated at a low level. The high - inventory pressure was slightly relieved as downstream battery enterprises replenished at low prices. However, the supply increased marginally, and the market was expected to maintain a low - level wide - range fluctuation [14]. Tin - The price of tin rebounded weakly. Trump's statement relieved the market's concern about the escalation of the situation. The fundamentals provided weak support, and the tin price was still dominated by the geopolitical situation and was expected to remain weak [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market of lithium carbonate maintained a volatile pattern. The supply increased, the demand was rigid, and the inventory decreased slightly. Under the mismatch between macro and micro, it maintained a wide - range fluctuation [16]. Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - The futures price of steel products fluctuated. The downstream demand continued to recover, but the post - holiday resumption of work was slightly slower than last year. It is expected that the steel inventory will accelerate the de - stocking in early April, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate [18]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fluctuated strongly. The overseas shipment and arrival increased this week, and the port inventory decreased. The demand of steel mills increased, and the port inventory was expected to be de - stocked. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate strongly [19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The futures price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly. Affected by Trump's statement, the price rose sharply and then fell back. The upstream production was normal, the downstream demand recovered, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and declined. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress was nearly 70%, and the short - term supply concern was relieved. The domestic oil mill's soybean inventory decreased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term [21][22]. Palm Oil - The price of palm oil adjusted downward. The oil price fell sharply, and the market was affected by the US - Iran news. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to adjust downward in the short term [23][24].

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The inventory inflection point of steel has emerged, and steel prices will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory depletion and raw material price changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials transaction volume was 88,800 tons, and the spot transaction was weak with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. This week's data shows that steel inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, building materials production and sales increased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production and sales increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. The improvement of steel supply - demand in the peak season and the inventory depletion amplitude will affect prices. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - External stimuli have eased, and iron ore prices will oscillate and correct. In the short term, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly intensified. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose, and high inventory suppresses price performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports decreased slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 518,000 tons, a 10.69% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: High ore prices have continuously stimulated iron ore supply, and the liquidity of some iron ore at ports has been released. After the end of steel mill production restrictions, molten iron production will increase. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not obvious, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The sentiment affects the market, and coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream raw material inventory is high, which suppresses purchasing enthusiasm. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. Some coal varieties in the production area were affected by the price increase in the external market, and the market sentiment improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was stable at around 1,100 yuan/ton. The spot market of coke at ports was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 has accelerated, and the supply is relatively loose. The high downstream raw material inventory suppresses purchasing enthusiasm, so coking coal will oscillate in the short term. For coke, the coking profit is acceptable, coke enterprises have resumed production one after another, and steel mills will also increase production steadily later. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East situation on coal price sentiment [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [7]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and thermal coal prices have rebounded. The supply of coal is increasing, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The prices of some pit - mouth coal in the main production areas have stabilized and increased, and the port coal prices are basically the same. Affected by the price increase in the external market, the market sentiment has improved, and some terminals and intermediate traders have replenished their inventories. The demand for low - calorie coal at ports is better than that for medium - and high - calorie coal, and the overall inquiry demand has increased. The import cost of imported coal is seriously inverted, and downstream tenders have decreased [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the end of the Two Sessions, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The short - term increase in oil and gas prices has not been fully transmitted to coal, so non - power coal demand in the off - season has a greater impact on coal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke strengthen, and the total position of coking coal increased compared to the previous period. This week, the output of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by rebar. The overall inventory continued to increase month - on - month, but the increase rate narrowed significantly. The apparent demand increased significantly month - on - month, mainly from rebar. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, the hot metal output continued to decline month - on - month. It is expected that with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the promotion of resumption of work and production, the hot metal output will significantly rebound, driving the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke and providing support for coal prices. The repeated geopolitical situation can also push up the valuation of energy - related commodities. Future focus should be on the trend of hot metal output, mine operation, and geopolitical trends [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Trading Volume - **Previous Day Closing Price**: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1466.0, 1153.0, and 1254.5 respectively; for coke, they were 1896.0, 1727.0, and 1801.5 respectively [1] - **Price Changes**: The price increases for coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 4.5, 8.5, and 7.0 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.31%, 0.74%, and 0.56% respectively; for coke, the price increases were 8.5, 9.0, and 8.0 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.45%, 0.52%, and 0.45% respectively [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 5060, 1002451, and 108346 respectively; for coke, they were 156, 166991, and 1679 respectively [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 15140, 393876, and 111895 respectively; for coke, they were 1614, 35867, and 4214 respectively. The changes in open interest were 239, - 13407, and 1126 for coking coal, and 96, 379, and 248 for coke [1] - **Price Spreads**: For coking coal, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively; for coke, the current price spreads were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [1] Spot Price - The spot prices of Mongolian 5 coking coal (port self - pick - up price), low - sulfur coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur fat coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan Grade I coke (ex - factory price), Jinzhong quasi - Grade I coke (ex - factory price), and Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I coke (warehouse - out price) were 1175, 1450, 1373, 1800, 1280, and 1470 respectively, with no changes [1] Automobile Industry Data - In February, China's automobile sales were 1.04 million, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%. Among them, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 464,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the double - coking (coking coal and coke) market, stating that the contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in the international coal market [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price Charts**: There are multiple price charts for coking coal and coke, including the main contract trends of coking coal and coke, price indices of coking coal and coke, prices of different types of coking coal (such as medium - sulfur main coking coal, Mongolian 5 coking coal), and prices of coke (such as coke price index, quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price, coke export FOB price) [9][11][28] - **Production Charts**: Charts show the production of national and Shanxi's raw coal, national and Shanxi's coking clean coal, and the capacity utilization rate and raw coal inventory of coking coal mines [38][41][42] - **Import Charts**: There are charts about the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at different ports (Ganqimaodu, Ceke, Mandula) and the total customs clearance of three ports [50][52][54] - **Export Charts**: Charts display the export volume of coke from China to the world, Indonesia, India, and Malaysia [73][76] - **Capacity Utilization and Production Charts**: There are charts of the capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel - mill coking plants, as well as the capacity utilization rate, daily output of iron water, and profitability rate of steel mills [79][84][88] - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts of the inventory of coking coal in mines, washing plants, Mongolian coal at ports, independent coking plants, and the total coking coal inventory, as well as the inventory of coke in coking enterprises, steel mills, ports, and the total coke inventory [96][105][106] 3.2 Indonesia Coal Data - **Production Quota Approval**: The preliminary RKAB approval results show that for different numbers of companies, the submitted production and approved production vary. For example, 7 companies submitted 2.22 billion tons of production, and all 2.22 billion tons were approved; 31 companies submitted 2.55 billion tons, and 1.19 billion tons were approved [64] - **2025 Production and Export**: In 2025, Indonesia's coal production was 7.90 billion tons, the export volume was 5.24 billion tons, accounting for 66.3% of the production, and the export volume to China was 2.11 billion tons, accounting for 40.3% of the total export volume [68] - **Export Change Calculation**: Under different scenarios (coal quota strictly implemented at 6 billion tons and neutral estimated production at 6.9 billion tons), the reduction in production, export volume, and export volume to China are calculated. For example, when the coal quota is strictly implemented at 6 billion tons and the reduction is mainly in exports, the production is reduced by 1.90 billion tons, the export volume is reduced by 1.90 billion tons, and the export volume to China is reduced by 0.77 billion tons [70]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, may face pressure after the holiday [7] Core Views - Steel market shows simultaneous weakening of supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating weakly due to pre - holiday inventory growth and lack of raw material drive [1] - Iron ore market has a large supply - demand contradiction, with port inventory slightly decreasing and iron water output rising. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact [3] - Coking coal and coke markets have a quiet trading atmosphere before the holiday. Coke prices are expected to oscillate with cost fluctuations, and coking coal prices are expected to be stable with narrow adjustments [5][6] - Thermal coal market has limited trading volume, with prices rising slightly due to supply contraction and expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday, but may face pressure after the holiday [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of steel oscillated downward. This week, steel demand dropped significantly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The output of the five major steel products was 794100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25800 tons. The inventory was 1.4427 million tons, with an inventory accumulation of 105000 tons (last week's inventory accumulation was 59000 tons). The apparent demand was 689100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71600 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent. Before the holiday, the construction material terminal is stagnant, and the rebar price is weak. The plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory restricts the price space of hot - rolled coils. The steel inventory continues to grow before the holiday, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. With weak raw material drive, steel prices will oscillate weakly. Later, attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 330490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1910 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports was 169.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 million tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, non - mainstream shipments remain high at high ore prices, and global shipments decline seasonally, with port inventory slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output has increased slightly. After steel mills complete replenishment, the support for raw material prices is weak. The supply - demand contradiction is still large. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact. Later, attention should be paid to iron ore inventory changes and negotiation progress [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias; Other strategies: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The trading atmosphere of coking coal was quiet before the holiday, and the price decreased slightly. The spot price of coke was relatively stable, and most steel mills had completed inventory replenishment. This week, coking coal inventory decreased significantly, and coke inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, supply has increased slightly recently. Most steel mills have completed winter storage replenishment. Before the holiday, coking plants adjust production independently, and the price is expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the molten iron output of steel mills has increased, and the rigid demand maintains resilience. After downstream replenishment is completed, speculative demand shrinks. Before the Spring Festival, coal mines stop production and take holidays one after another, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal is relieved. It is expected that the coal price will be stable with narrow adjustments before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the holiday [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, most private coal mines are on holiday, and supply further shrinks. In the port area, most traders are on holiday, and market trading is light. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern remains unchanged [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also on holiday, so both supply and demand are weak. Affected by supply in the import market, the price of domestic coal continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the Indonesian supply will recover later. Overall, the price increase space before the holiday is limited, and it is expected to run stably and slightly strongly. After the holiday, when coal mine supply recovers and the peak season is approaching the end, coal prices may face pressure [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: Before the release of the January CPI, market risk - aversion sentiment significantly increased. Concerns about the potential structural reshaping of the industry by AI led to a "counter - AI trade", amplifying the selling pressure on the technology sector. The Nasdaq fell by over 2%, gold dropped by more than 3%, silver declined by over 10%, copper and oil fell by over 2%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.1%. The market is in a high - volatility environment, and attention is focused on the release of the US January CPI data [2]. - Domestic: Amid the expected April meeting between the Chinese and US presidents and Trump's planned visit to China, the US has postponed key technology and security restrictions on China. The A - share market continued its volatile and differentiated pattern on Thursday. Small - and medium - cap and growth styles were relatively dominant. Although the trading volume slightly rebounded to 2.16 trillion yuan, over 3,200 stocks fell. The market is in a slow recovery phase with shrinking volume, and is expected to maintain a volatile recovery trend in the short term. Attention is paid to the January financial data [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Thursday. The international gold price fell by 4.1% and silver plunged by 11%. This was due to the decline of US technology stocks and strong US employment data, which weakened the market's expectation of the Fed's near - term interest rate cut. The adjustment of precious metal prices may not be over, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [4][5]. - Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper declined on Thursday, and LME copper also fell. The market is worried about the potential burst of the global AI bubble, and hawkish remarks from Fed officials have dampened market risk appetite. The global refined copper market is in a tight balance, and copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,690 yuan/ton on Thursday. Strong US employment data has suppressed the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the aluminum ingot inventory has continued to increase significantly. The aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to controlling position risks [8]. - Alumina: The supply and demand of alumina have changed little recently. The supply pressure has slightly decreased, and the procurement of raw materials by electrolytic aluminum enterprises has been postponed. The market is waiting and seeing about the resumption of production of previously reduced - production capacity after the Spring Festival. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [10]. - Cast Aluminum: Upstream and downstream enterprises of cast aluminum have entered the holiday stage, and the market supply and demand are weak. The holiday time of cast aluminum enterprises this year is slightly longer than usual. Cast aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [11]. - Zinc: Before the release of the US CPI data, the AI panic escalated, and the zinc price followed the adjustment of the non - ferrous metal sector. The domestic spot market has become stagnant, and the social inventory has continued to increase seasonally. The zinc price is expected to be cautious during the Spring Festival holiday [12]. - Lead: The upstream and downstream of the lead industry chain are mostly on holiday, the spot purchase has ended, and the social inventory has continued to rise. The Shanghai lead is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level [13][14]. - Tin: The market's concern about the subversive impact of AI has led to a sharp decline in US stock indexes. Traders sold metals to cover stock market losses, and the tin price dropped at night. The market is in a holiday atmosphere, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - Steel (Screw and Coil): The steel futures fluctuated on Thursday. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased rapidly, and the apparent consumption decreased. The spot market has stopped trading before the festival, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - Iron Ore: The trading volume of iron ore at ports has significantly slowed down, the steel mills have completed replenishment, and the iron ore consumption is at a low level. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have both decreased, and the port inventory remains high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal supply has shrunk, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of coke enterprises has slightly recovered, but production is still restricted by environmental protection policies. The raw material inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises is at a high level in the past two years. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [18][19]. - Beans and Rapeseed Meal: Trump's expected visit to China has improved the trade outlook, and the US soybean price has continued to rise. The precipitation in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to be higher than normal in the next two weeks. Due to the exchange's margin increase before the festival, funds have a high risk - aversion sentiment, and the longs in the domestic bean meal market have increased. The bean meal price is expected to fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian government has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in March but kept the export tariff unchanged. Indonesia has suspended the decision to expand the biodiesel blending ratio. The supply and demand of palm oil in Malaysia have both decreased in early February, and the inventory reduction may slow down. The palm oil price is expected to decline in a shock in the short term [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Copper: SHFE copper closed at 102,330 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; LME copper closed at 12,856 US dollars/ton, down 2.90% [24]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum closed at 23,610 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; LME aluminum closed at 3,098 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [24]. - Alumina: The main contract of SHFE alumina closed at 2,808 yuan/ton, down 1.20% [24]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc closed at 24,650 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; LME zinc closed at 3,382 US dollars/ton, down 1.07% [24]. - Lead: SHFE lead closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; LME lead closed at 1,984 US dollars/ton, down 0.53% [24]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME nickel closed at 17,250 US dollars/ton, down 4.51% [24]. - Tin: SHFE tin closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86%; LME tin closed at 47,800 US dollars/ton, down 4.52% [24]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold closed at 4,941.40 US dollars/ounce, down 3.26%; SHFE silver closed at 20,626 yuan/kg, down 1.52%; COMEX silver closed at 75.01 US dollars/ounce, down 10.79% [24]. - Steel: SHFE rebar closed at 3,050 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,218 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [24]. - Iron Ore: DCE iron ore closed at 762.0 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: DCE coking coal closed at 1,120.0 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; DCE coke closed at 1,664.0 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [24]. - Industrial Silicon: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 8,335.0 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [24]. - Agricultural Products: CBOT soybeans closed at 1,151.3 yuan/ton, up 2.47%; DCE bean meal closed at 2,790.0 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,303.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [24]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - Copper: On February 12, SHFE copper main contract was 102,330 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day; LME copper 3 - month contract was 12,855.5 US dollars/ton, down 383.5 US dollars. LME inventory increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons [25]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel main contract was 139,610 yuan/ton on February 12, up 250 yuan; LME nickel 3 - month contract was 17,250 US dollars/ton, down 815 US dollars. LME inventory increased by 636 tons to 286,386 tons [25]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc main contract was 24,650 yuan/ton on February 12, up 65 yuan; LME zinc was 3,381.5 US dollars/ton, down 36.5 US dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 103,500 tons [28]. - Lead: SHFE lead main contract was 16,700 yuan/ton on February 12, up 35 yuan; LME lead was 1,994.5 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars. LME inventory increased by 200 tons to 232,950 tons [28]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract was 23,745 yuan/ton on February 12, down 50 yuan; LME aluminum 3 - month contract was 3,097.5 US dollars/ton, down 19.5 US dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 483,550 tons [28]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina main contract was 2,808 yuan/ton on February 12, down 34 yuan; the national average spot price of alumina was 2,646 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SHEF warehouse inventory increased by 14,094 tons to 276,825 tons [28]. - Tin: SHFE tin main contract was 391,320 yuan/ton on February 12, down 3,380 yuan; LME tin was 47,800 US dollars/ton, down 2,265 US dollars. LME inventory decreased by 60 tons to 7,490 tons [28]. - Precious Metals: SHFE gold was 1,126.12 yuan, unchanged; COMEX gold was 4,948.40 US dollars/ounce, unchanged. SHFE silver was 20,626.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; COMEX silver was 75.682 US dollars/ounce, unchanged [28]. - Steel: Rebar main contract was 3,050 yuan/ton on February 12, down 4 yuan; the Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The iron ore main contract was 762.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [30]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke main contract was 1,664.0 yuan/ton on February 12, down 3.0 yuan; coking coal main contract was 1,120.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan [30]. - Agricultural Products: CBOT soybean main contract was 1,151.25 yuan/ton on February 12, up 27.75 yuan; DCE bean meal main contract was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; CZCE rapeseed meal main contract was 2,303 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, potentially under pressure after the holiday [7] 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with prices slightly fluctuating. The overall contradiction is not prominent, but the pre - holiday inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand pressure is slightly rising [1]. - The iron ore market is in a state of cautious waiting, with prices oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the support from raw material prices is weakening [3]. - The downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke is completed, and the trading atmosphere is dull. The prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday [5][6]. - The output of thermal coal is continuously shrinking, and the price lacks driving force. The pre - holiday price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and may face pressure after the holiday [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot prices were generally stable. This week, the inventory accumulation of building materials continued to increase, and the plate inventory also rose. The output of building materials decreased significantly, and the output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Before the holiday, the production and sales of building materials declined simultaneously. The short - process production suspension scale increased, and the inventory continued to grow. The demand for plates was relatively stable, but the high inventory restricted the price space of hot - rolled coils. Overall, the pre - holiday inventory of steel continued to increase, the supply - demand pressure increased slightly, and the raw material prices weakened. The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the margin increase and position reduction before the holiday may affect the market fluctuations [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume at major domestic ports was 238,000 tons, a 57.21% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 380,000 tons (5 transactions), a 45.32% decrease from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, the non - mainstream shipments remained high at high ore prices, and the global shipment volume decreased seasonally. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the iron ore consumption increased slightly month - on - month. The port inventory of iron ore continued to increase, and as the steel mills' replenishment was nearing completion, the support from raw material prices weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to deepen, and if the port liquidity factors were removed, the port supply would cause a great impact [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation with a bearish bias; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated within a narrow range. For coking coal, as the holiday approached, coal mines successively announced production suspension and holiday plans, and downstream procurement slowed down or stopped, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. For coke, the spot price was relatively stable. After the first price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises gradually recovered. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, the supply increased slightly recently. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling. As the holiday approached, coking plants adjusted their production independently, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term, following the cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the pig iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and the rigid demand for coking coal remained resilient. As the downstream replenishment was nearing completion, the speculative demand shrank. As the Spring Festival approached, coal mines successively stopped production for holidays, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal was relieved. The coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable with a narrow - range adjustment [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In terms of production areas, the number of coal mines on holiday in the main production areas continued to increase, and the operating mines were mainly large state - owned mines, with the supply continuously decreasing. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the main transactions were concentrated in long - term contracts, and the pre - holiday price was expected to change little. At ports, the market trading was dull, mainly with long - term contract coal. More traders were on holiday, and basically all had entered the holiday state. Affected by the shortage of imported coal and the rise in domestic prices, sellers were more willing to hold prices. In the import market, the RKAB in Indonesia was not fully implemented, the offers from Indonesian miners were scarce, and the market quotes and tender prices increased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, the supply decreased due to coal mine holidays, and downstream factories were also gradually on holiday, so both supply and demand were weak. Affected by the supply in the import market, the price of domestic trade coal continued to rise slightly. Recently, the full approval of RKAB by leading mines in Indonesia was expected, and the approval results of other mines were expected to be announced successively. The supply in Indonesia was expected to recover. Overall, the pre - holiday price increase was limited, and it was expected to run stably with a slight upward trend. After the holiday, as the coal mine supply recovered and the peak season was approaching the end, the coal price may be under pressure [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable to Slightly Bullish [7] 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a slack season with prices oscillating weakly. The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent, but poor building material demand, weak downstream purchasing sentiment, and higher seasonal inventory accumulation are suppressing rebar prices. High inventory is also constraining the price space of hot-rolled coils. Before the holiday, steel inventories continue to rise, and supply-demand pressure increases slightly. With weakening raw material prices, steel prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [1]. - The iron ore market sentiment is weak, and prices are oscillating. High prices have led to high non-mainstream shipments, but global shipments are seasonally declining. Daily average hot metal production is stable, and iron ore consumption has slightly increased month-on-month. Port inventories are continuously rising, and as steel mill restocking nears completion, the support for raw material prices is weakening. The supply-demand contradiction in the iron ore market is deepening, and if port liquidity issues are resolved, port supplies could cause a significant supply shock [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is experiencing weak trading, with prices oscillating weakly. As the holiday approaches, more coal mines are announcing shutdowns, leading to a light trading atmosphere, with many auctions failing and prices falling in the coking coal market. After the first round of coke price increases, coke producers' profits have improved, but most steel mills have completed winter restocking, leading to a sharp decline in speculative demand for coke [5]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with prices remaining stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, more private mines in the main production areas are on holiday, leading to a tightening supply. Downstream demand, except for some chemical industries, has shrunk significantly. The market is characterized by low activity, with supply and demand both weak. Import coal prices are rising due to supply uncertainties in Indonesia. Before the holiday, the upside for prices is limited, and they are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish. After the holiday, as coal mine supply resumes and the peak season nears its end, prices may face downward pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated downward. On Monday, the rebar inventory in Hangzhou was 79.3 million tons, with an outbound volume of 0.2 million tons, compared to 58.5 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively in the same period last year. Building material demand is poor, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. Seasonal inventory accumulation is slightly higher than last year, suppressing rebar prices. Plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory is constraining the price space of hot-rolled coils [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Before the holiday, steel inventories continue to rise, and supply-demand pressure increases slightly. With weakening raw material prices, steel prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend. Later, attention should be paid to winter restocking and changes in raw material prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 55.5 million tons, a 13.01% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 69.5 million tons (5 transactions), a 13.93% month - on - month increase (with all transactions from mines) [3]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: High prices have led to high non - mainstream shipments, but global shipments are seasonally declining. Daily average hot metal production is stable, and iron ore consumption has slightly increased month - on - month. Port inventories are continuously rising, and as steel mill restocking nears completion, the support for raw material prices is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction in the iron ore market is deepening, and if port liquidity issues are resolved, port supplies could cause a significant supply shock. Later, attention should be paid to changes in iron ore inventories and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. As the holiday approaches, more coal mines are announcing shutdowns, leading to a light trading atmosphere, with many auctions failing and prices falling in the coking coal market. The spot prices of coke in the main production areas and ports are relatively stable, and coke producers' production is relatively stable. After the first round of coke price increases, coke producers' profits have improved, but most steel mills have completed winter restocking, leading to a sharp decline in speculative demand for coke [5]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the short term, coke prices are expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, as steel mill hot metal production has recovered, the rigid demand for coking coal remains resilient. However, as downstream restocking nears completion, speculative demand has declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines are shutting down for the holiday, and Mongolian coal imports will be suspended during the Spring Festival, alleviating the supply pressure on coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, coal prices are expected to remain stable with narrow adjustments. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the festival [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, more private mines in the main production areas are on holiday, leading to a tightening supply. Downstream demand, except for some chemical industries, has shrunk significantly. Before the holiday, prices are expected to change little, and attention should be paid to the recovery of market supply and demand after the holiday. At ports, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream users are on holiday, and terminal daily consumption is continuously declining, resulting in low market activity. Affected by the tightening supply at the mine mouth, market supplies to ports are tight, and port shipments are in a continuous loss - making situation. Currently, the market shows weak supply and demand, and prices remain stable. In the import market, the tender prices of imported coal are continuously rising. Due to uncertainties in the later production policies of Indonesian mines, prices are relatively high [7]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also gradually taking holidays, resulting in weak supply and demand. Affected by supply in the import market, domestic thermal coal prices have maintained a slight upward trend. Recently, the full approval of the RKAB of a leading Indonesian mine is expected, and the approval results of other mines will be announced successively. In the later period, Indonesian supply is expected to recover. Overall, before the holiday, the upside for prices is limited, and they are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish. After the holiday, as coal mine supply resumes and the peak season nears its end, prices may face downward pressure [7].