黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-16 宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 钢材：宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货价格震荡上涨，现货方面，钢材现货成交一般，低价成交尚可，以终端和前期超卖补 库为主，投机情绪一般。全国建材成交11.76万吨，钢银数据显示钢材库存有所增长。 供需与逻辑：当前库存压力下，建材基本面矛盾有所增加，价格表现承压。板材需求韧性仍在，基本面表现平稳， 价格相对偏强，关注需求改善力度。伴随美联储降息概率增长，市场对于后期国内政策加码预期渐浓，同时反内 卷政策和双节补库预期共同刺激，钢材价格表现偏强。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运显著回升，铁矿跟随板块 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商 报价积极性一般，钢厂采购多以刚需为主。供给方面，本期全球铁矿石发运显著回升，全球发运总量3573万吨， 其中巴西和非主流发运明显增长。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2362万吨，周环比减少86万吨。昨日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively balanced. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal futures price has corrected. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented. In the medium term, due to the impact of policies such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disrupted, and the central price of coking coal will gradually rise. One can wait for adjustments and go long on far - month contracts at low prices. [4] - For trading strategies, maintain the idea of going long at low prices for single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Maintain the idea of going long at low prices [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [6] - **Options**: Wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: This week, the production of coking coal mines increased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.21% (+1.48%). However, after the coal mine accident in Fujian, it is expected that national coal mine safety work will be tightened, restricting the recovery of coal mine capacity utilization. The import of Mongolian coal through the Ganqimaodu Port has a high number of customs - cleared vehicles, and it is expected to remain at a high level next week. [4][8] - **Demand**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). With the approaching military parade, the output of coking enterprises in Tangshan and other places is expected to decline, but the output in other regions is expected to increase slightly. The overall demand for coking coal has certain resilience. [8] - **Coke** - **Supply**: This week, the daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 65.45 (+0.07), and the daily average output of steel - mill coking was 46.73. The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07). It is expected that the coke output will remain stable next week. [9] - **Demand**: This week, the molten iron output increased slightly, with the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills reaching 240.75 (+0.09). Currently, steel mills generally have profits, and the inventory pressure of steel products is not large. Considering the approaching military parade, the molten iron output is expected to decline slightly next week, but the demand for raw materials remains resilient. [9] - **Price Analysis** - **Coking Coal**: This week, the coking coal price still showed mixed trends, with the speculative sentiment weakening and the downstream procurement enthusiasm decreasing. It is expected that the coking coal spot price will continue to show mixed trends next week without an obvious trend. [8] - **Coke**: This week, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. After seven rounds of increases, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient, and it is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week. [9] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Data** - **Price**: Shanxi coal warehouse - receipt price is 1180 yuan/ton, Meng 5 warehouse - receipt price is 1099 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) warehouse - receipt price is 1235 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply** - **Domestic**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average output of raw coal was 191.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3 tons. [12] - **Import**: The average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal was 1263 this week, a month - on - month increase of 240. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 3679.0 (-0.7) tons this week. The inventory of coal mines increased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory of steel mills and ports increased. [8] - **Coke Data** - **Price**: The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1655 yuan/ton, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Rizhao Port is 1616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Shanxi Lvliang is 1755 yuan/ton. [9] - **Supply**: The total coke output was 112.18 (+0.07) tons this week. [9] - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 (+0.09) tons this week. [9] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 942.6 (+0.6) tons this week. The inventory of coking enterprises increased, the inventory of steel mills decreased slightly, and the inventory of ports decreased. [9] - **Profit**: The average national profit per ton of coke was 23 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 42 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 83 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was - 40 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 56 yuan/ton. [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [2] - Iron Ore: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways movement [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: No specific rating provided, strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bullish movement [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided, short - term price is expected to move sideways to bullishly [8] 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Inventory is increasing, and the impact of steel mill production restrictions in Tangshan is currently controllable. The fundamentals may improve marginally, but self - initiated production cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the steel futures are supported. Future focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has revised its expectations, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The shipping volume is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the supply is well - supported. The demand is strong, but short - term production in Tangshan is affected by the parade. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are concerns about Mongolian coal transportation, and the futures prices are strongly bullish. The supply of coking coal is insufficient, and the demand for coke is supported by good steel enterprise profits. Attention should be paid to the sixth round of price increase for coke [5][6]. - **Thermal Coal**: The demand is good, and the pit - mouth coal price is firm. The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term. Medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. 3. Summary by Industry Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward. Tangshan issued production restriction notices, with a currently controllable impact. Building materials are in the off - season with increasing inventory, while plates' sentiment has marginally improved due to production restrictions [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' production and sales are in the off - season, and inventory is rising slightly. Plates are affected by Tangshan's production restrictions. Steel mill production restrictions before the parade may improve the fundamentals, but self - initiated cuts are difficult due to good profits. The raw material prices are firm, and the fundamentals have few contradictions [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated upward, and spot prices rose slightly. The shipping volume decreased slightly this period, with a decline in Australia and non - mainstream shipments and an increase in Brazilian shipments. Spot market transactions were few [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Shipping is in line with the seasonal pattern, and supply is well - supported. The iron - making water output is high, and steel mill production enthusiasm is strong. The short - term impact of the parade on Tangshan's rolling mills has not affected blast furnaces. In the long run, the supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways movement for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices were bullish. The customs clearance volume of imported coal is high, but the restrictions on Mongolian coal transportation may affect short - term supply [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, mine production cuts and rainy seasons have led to low output and insufficient supply. For coke, the new round of price increase needs time to materialize, and the supply pressure has eased, but the output is still lower than last year. The demand is supported by good steel enterprise profits [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is a sideways - to - bullish movement for single - side trading of both coking coal and coke, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the price is strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and the demand for restocking is high. At ports, the inventory is decreasing, and the shipping is at a loss. The import cost has increased, and the trading activity is low [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the demand is good due to high temperatures. The price is expected to move sideways to bullishly in the short term, and medium - to - long - term focus is on non - power coal consumption and restocking [8].

第一部分 前言概要 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 双焦：短期博弈加大 中期跟踪查超产实际影响 黑色板块研发报告 - 银河期货 第 1 页 共 21 页 - 图 1：焦煤主力合约走势 图 2：焦炭主力合约走势 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 基本面情况 7 第 2 页 共 21 页 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图 3：炼焦煤价格指数 单位：元/吨 图 4：中硫主焦煤价格 单位：元/吨 800 1300 1800 2300 2800 3300 3800 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 中硫主焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 6 ：蒙 5 原煤-甘其毛都 单位：元/吨 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 蒙5精煤 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 ...

1、现货市场：张家港益江一级豆油 8200 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 30 元/吨。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 2840 元/吨（0）、天津 2940 元/吨（-10）、 日照 2870 元/吨（-20）、东莞 2860 元/吨（-40）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 豆粕价格走高提振市场成交，下游饲料需求被低估，油厂压车问题仍存，豆粕提货良好 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant price movements in various commodities, particularly the sharp increase in alumina prices due to supply disruptions, while other commodities like lithium carbonate and焦煤 experienced declines [1][2]. - Alumina contracts hit the limit up with a 6.25% increase, driven by supply concerns after Guinea's mining authority ordered a halt at the Axis mine, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons [2]. - The overall commodity futures price index showed a slight decline, with the China Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1355.25 points, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2 - The supply issues in alumina are expected to provide short-term support for prices, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to potential oversupply as production may recover with rising prices [2]. - The double焦 and lithium carbonate prices have reached new lows, with lithium facing a downward spiral due to weak downstream demand [4]. - The egg futures market has seen a decline, with expectations of weak prices continuing due to increasing supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [4].