1、现货市场：张家港益江一级豆油 8200 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 30 元/吨。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 2840 元/吨（0）、天津 2940 元/吨（-10）、 日照 2870 元/吨（-20）、东莞 2860 元/吨（-40）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 豆粕价格走高提振市场成交，下游饲料需求被低估，油厂压车问题仍存，豆粕提货良好 ...

新华财经北京5月19日电（郭洲洋、左元）5月19日，受供应端消息影响，氧化铝大涨超6%，烧碱涨超1%；碳酸锂、焦煤跌超2%，纯碱、工业硅、焦炭、尿 素、鸡蛋、甲醇、低硫燃料油、热卷、螺纹跌超1%。 截至19日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1355.25点，较前一交易日下跌3.74点，跌幅0.28%；中证商品期货指数收报1876.55点，较前一交易日下跌 4.89点，跌幅0.26%。 供应风波推动氧化铝触及涨停集运欧线再度拉涨 5月19日，在供应端消息扰动下，氧化铝多合约涨停，主力合约收盘以6.25%的涨幅领涨国内商品市场。据我的钢铁网（Mysteel）报道，当地时间上周五上 午，几内亚矿业局对Axis矿区下达停工指令。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公司，涉及产能约4000万吨／年，其2024年铝土矿产量达2300万吨，目前恢复时间 不明。铝土矿供应忧虑叠加前期国内氧化铝因亏损减产导致的现货库存下降对盘面形成短期的强力支撑，不过整体来看，氧化铝产能过剩的格局不变，同时 随着价格的上涨，产量也将进一步恢复。因此，展望后市，光大期货预计，短期来看，国内氧化铝供给端延续减产检修，消息端炒作空间充足，在矿端减产 消息未证 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are lackluster, with a weak market expectation. The supply of coking coal remains loose throughout the year, and the small rebound since the end of March has basically ended, expected to return to the downward price channel. Coke follows the trend of coking coal, and it's difficult to have a second - round price increase after the first - round increase. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Wait and see in the short term, and maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see [6]. - **Spot - futures**: Wait and see [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Coking Coal** - **Market Sentiment and Price**: The market sentiment of coking coal has weakened, with some coal prices falling and a high auction failure rate. The small rebound since the end of March has basically ended, and the probability of price decline next week is high. The current prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur coal, Mongolian No. 5, Mongolian No. 3, and Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipts are 1060 yuan/ton, 1022 yuan/ton, 968 yuan/ton, and 955 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Domestic Supply**: This week, the coal mine production increased slightly, with the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate at 87.7% (+0.54%). It is expected that the domestic coal production will remain stable in the near future, and the short - term supply is unlikely to shrink substantially [8]. - **Imported Mongolian Coal**: The number of customs clearance vehicles of imported Mongolian coal increased this week. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port from April 14 - 17 was 1108 vehicles, an increase of 129 vehicles compared with the previous period. The port inventory is still at a high level, the market transaction is average, and the price is weak. It is expected that the number of customs clearance vehicles will remain at the current level next week [8]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.51% (+0.55%), and the daily coke output was 65.33 tons (+0.49). It is expected to remain stable next week [8]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 3779.4 (-21.9) tons this week. The inventory of coal mines increased slightly, the inventory of coking and steel enterprises increased, and the inventory of ports decreased [8]. - **Coke** - **Spot Price**: The first - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and coking enterprises are mainly focused on active sales. It is difficult to have a second - round increase, and the price is expected to remain stable after the first - round increase. The warehouse receipts of Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched), Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched), and Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) are 1510 yuan/ton, 1476 yuan/ton, and 1640 yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.51% (+0.55%), and the daily coke output was 65.33 tons (+0.49). It is expected to remain stable next week [9]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output decreased slightly this week, with the average daily output of 247 steel mills at 240.12 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with the previous period. The blast furnace复产 of steel mills has basically reached the limit, and the market is worried that the pig iron output will peak and decline [9]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased to 1065.3 (+12.7) tons this week. The inventory of coking enterprises decreased slightly, the inventory of steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased [9]. - **Profit**: According to Steel Union data, the average national coke profit per ton was - 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 10 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 41 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 54 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 39 yuan/ton [9]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Supply and Demand Data** - **Production**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 sample coking coal mines was 87.7% (+0.54%), the daily average output of raw coal was 197.66 tons (+1.23), and the daily average output of clean coal was 79.18 tons (+0.94) [22]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (converted to clean coal) was 3779.4 (-21.9) tons [22]. - **Coke Supply and Demand Data** - **Production**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.51% (+0.55%), and the daily average output was 65.33 tons (+0.49) [22]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 1065.3 (+12.7) tons [22]. - **Steel Mill Data** - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56% (+0.28), the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.15% (-0.04), the steel mill profitability rate was 54.98% (+1.30), and the average daily pig iron output was 240.12 tons (-0.10) [21].