2025年9月22日，亚洲时区，比特币市场如同被突如其来的急刹车甩入前座，屏幕上血红的K线与交易 群里"冲冲冲"的呐喊形成鲜明对比，两种极端情绪的碰撞，预示着一场不同寻常的动荡。加密货币的领 头羊，比特币，在11.4万美元附近瞬间崩盘，短短几分钟内，市值蒸发大半。期货市场上，17亿美元的 多头头寸顷刻间化为乌有，强平提示如狂风暴雨般涌来。 "这是不是一个拐点？"群里有人抛出疑问，我却不动声色地回复："别急，先看谁先认输，再看谁补 仓。市场节奏已非上周的直线冲刺。" 三天后的9月26日，高盛的分析师Paolo Schiavone在一份内部报告中，一针见血地指出了市场的变化。 他认为，过去三周，风险偏好如同踩了氮气加速，动量策略表现强劲，但本周的节拍已然改变。他将周 一那记"急刹车"定性为第一个真正的信号，并强调，比特币此次已不再是跟随者，而是领头羊。他的原 话更是尖锐："跌破200日均线，风险便会陡增。" 事后复盘，盘后数据显示，10.9万美元附近出现了承接的现货买盘，挂单如同精心守护的防线。技术派 将其视为支撑，而情绪派则称之为"护城河"。当天晚些时候，以太坊及主流山寨币也未能幸免，纷纷出 现下滑。社交媒体上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Bitcoin flash crash is seen as the first signal of a market shift, indicating a potential slowdown in the previous three weeks of risk asset rally [1][4][6] Market Conditions - The past three weeks experienced a significant rally in risk assets, with momentum trading yielding notable returns, but the pace is now changing [1][4] - Bitcoin's flash crash led to the forced liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions, impacting nearly all major cryptocurrencies [1] - Bitcoin's price fell below $110,000, currently trading around $109,000, with the $110,000 level identified as a critical technical support [1][4] Macro Environment - The macro environment remains volatile, with consensus trades facing significant pressure, particularly those betting against the dollar and for a steepening yield curve [3][7] - There is a 50/50 split among market participants regarding concerns over inflation versus growth, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [7] Economic Forecast - The forecast for the U.S. economy includes a GDP growth of 2%, core PCE at 3%, and an unemployment rate of 4.5% by year-end [7] - The terminal interest rate is expected to approach 2.5%, with a pessimistic view on fiscal conditions [7] Future Outlook - The upcoming Fed rate cut cycle is anticipated, with predictions of three insurance rate cuts, potentially including a 50 basis point cut in October if non-farm payroll data continues to be revised downwards [9] - Factors such as the peak of tariff impacts, significant fiscal stimulus, and loosening financial conditions are expected to support risk assets [10]