近日，美银以研究报告的形式，发布了一份全球基金经理信心大调查，238位手握5690亿美元资产的投 资者接受了这份调查。 调查结果显示，受调查的基金经理们宏观乐观度飙升至2021年8月以来的最高，现金持有量创纪录低至 3.3%，AI泡沫、私人信贷风险已悄然成为悬在市场上空的"达摩克利斯之剑"。 01 明年宏观预测：软着陆成共识 每当基金经理集体乐观的时候，究竟意味着机遇，还是风险？ 美银的这份调查显示，基金经理们对2026年全球经济的信心彻底回暖。 57%的基金经理看好全球经济"软着陆"——温和增长+通胀可控；另有37%的基金经理认为经济继续"起 飞"——持续强劲增长；仅3%的基金经理担忧经济"硬着陆"。 全球增长预期升至4年高点，企业盈利预期同步飙至2021年8月以来峰值，41%的受访者认为亚太企业盈 利将走强。 流动性环境被评为2021年9月以来最佳，69%的投资者押注凯文.哈西特将出任下任美联储主席。 02 AI与黄金：风险与拥挤交易 尽管基金经理对宏观经济大面积乐观，但大家并没有失去风险意识，37%的受访者认为风险可能来自 于"AI泡沫"。 40%的受访者认为存在信贷危机隐患：私人信贷是系统性信贷事件的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut but the smallest reduction in this cycle [1][3]. Economic Outlook - Inflation expectations remain high, which may hinder sustainable inflation reduction. The bank has revised its 2026 inflation forecast from 4% to a range of 4%-5% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for this year from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [3][4]. - Recent inflation spikes are attributed to seasonal factors and a weakening effect of the strengthening ruble, alongside fuel shortages exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank emphasizes the need to consider the cumulative impact of temporary inflationary factors on the process of reducing inflation expectations. Current inflation expectations stand at 12.6% for October [4][6]. - To achieve its inflation target by the end of next year, the bank believes that seasonally adjusted monthly data must remain close to 4% for an extended period [4][6]. Fiscal Policy Implications - The bank warns that the "inflation slowdown effect" for the 2025 budget will be significantly less than previously expected, indicating that changes in fiscal policy may necessitate corresponding adjustments in monetary policy [6][7]. - Decision-makers now anticipate an average key rate of 13%-15% for 2026, up from the previous forecast of 12%-13% [7]. External Factors - New sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia's largest oil producer complicate the economic landscape, potentially reducing revenue from oil exports and increasing the risk of a hard landing for the economy [5][6].

Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced a slight recovery in August, with GDP increasing by 0.1% after a 0.1% decline in July, aligning with economists' median expectations [1][3] - Manufacturing output rose by 0.7%, exceeding expectations, while the services sector remained stagnant for two consecutive months [1][3] Sector Performance - In the three months leading up to August, the UK GDP grew by 0.3%, indicating potential growth for the third quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw growth in 8 out of 13 sub-sectors, with the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector contributing the most at a growth rate of 3% [6] - Despite an increase in retail sales, the services sector failed to expand, with declines noted in wholesale, entertainment, and transportation sectors [6] Trade Dynamics - In August, UK goods imports remained flat, while exports decreased, with a notable decline of approximately £700 million in exports to the United States [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Core Insights - The Bitcoin market experienced a sudden crash on September 22, 2025, with its price dropping to around $114,000, leading to a significant loss in market capitalization and the liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions [1] - Analyst Paolo Schiavone from Goldman Sachs identified this crash as a pivotal moment, indicating a shift in market dynamics and warning that falling below the 200-day moving average would increase risks [1][2] - Following the crash, Bitcoin's price stabilized around $109,000, with market participants showing mixed emotions and a lack of decisive trading activity [3][5] Market Dynamics - The market showed signs of indecision with a horizontal consolidation phase following the initial crash, and trading volumes decreased significantly [2] - There was a split in market sentiment, with half of the participants concerned about inflation and the other half worried about growth, leading to fragmented trading behavior [2] - The futures market indicated a cooling of bullish sentiment, as the perpetual funding rate shifted from positive to near zero, suggesting a decrease in long positions [3] Technical Analysis - The 200-day moving average is viewed as a psychological threshold for traders, with its breach potentially leading to risk aversion among market participants [6] - The market's reaction to technical indicators is influenced by the distribution of holdings, with long-term holders remaining stable while short-term leverage is decreasing [5][6] - The behavior of the AI-related stocks in the U.S. market, particularly Nvidia, showed signs of fatigue, which could impact broader market sentiment [3] External Influences - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with discussions around fiscal discipline resurfacing, impacting market expectations [2] - The potential for a "soft landing" in the U.S. economy remains, with GDP growth projected at 2% and core PCE around 3%, indicating that the economy has not yet reached a critical downturn [5] - The interconnectedness of global markets was evident, as the decline in Bitcoin prices also affected technology indices in the Chinese market [5] Future Outlook - The upcoming employment data in early October could significantly influence market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut if job data continues to weaken [5][7] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility as it navigates through the end of September and the beginning of October, with traders advised to remain cautious [7] - The potential for a rebound exists, but it may be short-lived and fragmented due to the current market conditions and sentiment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 77,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1][7][28]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, the private sector added 38,000 jobs, also below the expected 78,000, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][7]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 31,000 positions, while manufacturing and professional services sectors experienced declines [8][9]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.32%, with long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) increasing by 385,000 year-on-year, indicating challenges in re-employment for certain demographics [3][12][13]. Group 2: Wage and Hour Data - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 3.9% in the previous month, suggesting a moderation in wage growth [3][16]. - The total payroll index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating stable wage growth but with signs of slowing momentum [16][17]. - Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, reflecting cautious hiring practices among employers [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current employment data suggests a typical post-cycle economic characteristic, with signs of a cooling labor market [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant negative shifts in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic recessions, with a 67% success rate in predicting downturns [4][20]. - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts as a response to the weakening labor market, with market expectations indicating high probabilities for rate cuts in the coming months [5][6][28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are high, with probabilities of 92%, 72.6%, and 67.9% for September, October, and December respectively [6][28]. - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.07%, and the dollar index has also retreated [6][28]. - Gold prices have risen significantly as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming [6][28].

Group 1 - The report indicates that July economic data shows downward pressure, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but structural weaknesses evident, and domestic demand components significantly declining [3][4][73] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market reached new historical highs in July, while U.S. Treasury yields experienced a notable rebound [4][13] - The report suggests that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may reach a new low of 3.6%, breaking the previous low of 3.8% in April [3][7] Group 2 - The report notes that the total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in July was $2.51 trillion, an increase from the previous month's $2.3 trillion [19][20] - It mentions that the demand for U.S. Treasuries has weakened marginally due to the lower attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields compared to European and Japanese government bonds after currency hedging costs [7][21] - The report states that the issuance of short-term Treasury bills (T-Bills) increased significantly, with a total issuance of $2.37 trillion in July, compared to $1.62 trillion in June [20][27] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment, indicating that the FOMC maintained the policy rate at 4%-4.25% during the July meeting, reflecting a more cautious outlook on economic uncertainty [62][63] - It highlights that the labor market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations [73][79] - The report emphasizes that inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate, with the CPI rising by 0.3% month-on-month in June, aligning with expectations [73][74] Group 4 - The report outlines the strategy for the U.S. Treasury market, recommending specific instruments such as TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures [3][7] - It suggests that the current economic conditions may lead to a "soft landing," but if the Federal Reserve misjudges inflation, it could result in a "hard landing" scenario [106] - The report indicates that the Treasury market is expected to experience high volatility due to ongoing economic pressures and potential shifts in monetary policy [7][49]

Core Insights - A significant shift in investor sentiment regarding economic recession concerns has been observed, with 59% of investors now believing a recession is unlikely [1] - The report indicates that this represents a major change from April, when only 42% of respondents felt a recession was unlikely [1] - Approximately 65% of investors anticipate a "soft landing" for the economy, characterized by a slowdown in inflation without a significant economic downturn [1] - Only 9% of investors expect a "hard landing," where inflation decreases alongside a slowdown or recession in the economy [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and fluctuating demand from various industries [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Progress in US-China tariff negotiations has reduced market risk aversion, with only 26% of fund managers believing in a hard landing, down from 49% in April [1] Supply Dynamics - There is a tight supply of copper concentrate, with limited short-term increases in global supply despite advancements in technology and exploration capabilities [1] - The competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to downward pressure on processing fees for imported ore and squeezing profits [1] Demand Trends - SMM forecasts a decrease in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to 71.01% in May, down 2.83 percentage points month-on-month but up 8.17 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The operating rate for the enameled wire industry is expected to decline to 69.81%, a decrease of 6.98 percentage points month-on-month [1] - In April, the production of photovoltaic modules by major Chinese companies reached 55 GW, a month-on-month increase of 3.38% and year-on-year stability [1] - The production of battery cells in April was 59.8 GW, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.13% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.97% [1] - Cumulative inventory of new energy vehicles in China reached 788,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [1] Inventory Levels - LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 190,750 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 9,073 tons to 29,157 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market sentiment improved on May 13 due to progress in US-China tariff negotiations, although COMEX inventories continue to rise [1]