Group 1 - The report indicates that July economic data shows downward pressure, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but structural weaknesses evident, and domestic demand components significantly declining [3][4][73] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market reached new historical highs in July, while U.S. Treasury yields experienced a notable rebound [4][13] - The report suggests that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may reach a new low of 3.6%, breaking the previous low of 3.8% in April [3][7] Group 2 - The report notes that the total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in July was $2.51 trillion, an increase from the previous month's $2.3 trillion [19][20] - It mentions that the demand for U.S. Treasuries has weakened marginally due to the lower attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields compared to European and Japanese government bonds after currency hedging costs [7][21] - The report states that the issuance of short-term Treasury bills (T-Bills) increased significantly, with a total issuance of $2.37 trillion in July, compared to $1.62 trillion in June [20][27] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment, indicating that the FOMC maintained the policy rate at 4%-4.25% during the July meeting, reflecting a more cautious outlook on economic uncertainty [62][63] - It highlights that the labor market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations [73][79] - The report emphasizes that inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate, with the CPI rising by 0.3% month-on-month in June, aligning with expectations [73][74] Group 4 - The report outlines the strategy for the U.S. Treasury market, recommending specific instruments such as TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures [3][7] - It suggests that the current economic conditions may lead to a "soft landing," but if the Federal Reserve misjudges inflation, it could result in a "hard landing" scenario [106] - The report indicates that the Treasury market is expected to experience high volatility due to ongoing economic pressures and potential shifts in monetary policy [7][49]

Core Insights - A significant shift in investor sentiment regarding economic recession concerns has been observed, with 59% of investors now believing a recession is unlikely [1] - The report indicates that this represents a major change from April, when only 42% of respondents felt a recession was unlikely [1] - Approximately 65% of investors anticipate a "soft landing" for the economy, characterized by a slowdown in inflation without a significant economic downturn [1] - Only 9% of investors expect a "hard landing," where inflation decreases alongside a slowdown or recession in the economy [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

【5 月 13 日沪铜主力合约市场动态】5 月 13 日，沪铜主力合约开盘价 78080 元/吨，最高 78190 元/ 吨，最低 77620 元/吨，收盘价78090 元/吨，跌幅 0.19%。全天成交量 9.1 万手，减仓 3.4 万手。持仓量 18.2 万手，减仓 0.6 万手。 宏观方面，中美关税问题谈判有进展，市场避险情绪降温。美国银行调研显 示，26%的基金经理认为将硬着陆，低于 4 月的 49%。 供给上，铜精矿供应紧张。虽技术进步和勘探 能力提升，新矿源开发加快，但短期内全球铜精矿供应增量有限，相对铜冶炼产能增长，供应有较大缺 口，冶炼厂竞争加剧，进口矿加工费下行压力大，利润承压。 需求方面，SMM预计 5 月精铜杆企业开 工率环比下滑至 71.01%，下滑 2.83 个百分点，同比上升 8.17 个百分点。5 月漆包线行业开工率预计为 69.81%，环比下降 6.98 个百分点。4 月中国主流光伏组件企业光伏组件产量 55GW，环比上涨 3.38%， 同比持平。4 月光伏组件国内企业产能开工率 56.1%。Mysteel 预计 2025 年 5 月光伏组件排产约 52GW，环比下降 5.45 ...

该银行在中美贸易会谈前进行的调查显示，基金经理净减持了38%的美国股票，这是两年来最高水平。 但由于投资者对股票的风险敞口很低，市场参与者警告称，持续的股市上涨将使看跌头寸蒙受巨额损 失。同时，在已经高企的水平上追涨可能会给交易员带来更多痛苦。 投资者对5月份全球经济增长的悲观情绪有所缓解。净59%的投资者预计全球经济增长将放缓，低于4月 份的82%。净1%的人认为可能出现衰退，较4月份的42%大幅下降。投资者目前的共识是软着陆，即通 胀下降，而经济不会明显放缓或陷入衰退。本月，61%的投资者预计会出现这种结果，高于4月份的 37%，对硬着陆的预期已从4月份的49%降至26%。 43%的投资者将贸易战列为最有可能引发系统性信贷危机的因素。第二个最有可能的来源是美国的影子 银行，占比25%。美国银行在调查的同时发布的一份新闻稿中说，中美经贸会谈成果"防止了经济衰退 或信贷事件"。这项调查是在周一宣布削减关税之前进行的。 对于美股，美国银行策略师表示，在美国和中国达成贸易休战引发股市上涨后，投资者可能被迫追涨， 因为他们在上月的反弹中大部分错失了机会。 美国股市因贸易战出现缓和迹象而持续反弹。标普500指数较其2 ...

• AI 产业快速扩张，ChatGPT 等技术突破，美国科技巨头在 AI 领域具有先 发优势，AI 技术深化可能支撑美股业绩。 回顾美股历史上三次巨震 20250505 摘要 • 1987 年黑色星期一的宏观背景是广场协议后美元贬值、美联储加息以及 美股泡沫和程序化交易策略导致抛售，道指和标普 500 单日跌幅超 20%。 • 2008 年金融危机期间，美国房市和股市高涨，居民负债率提升，次级贷 款驱动地产泡沫破裂，雷曼兄弟破产引发流动性危机，标普 500 和道指最 大回撤接近 40%。 • 2020 年新冠疫情全球扩散，美国确诊病例激增，实际 GDP 增速降至- 7.5%，制造业 PMI 为 41.5，美股 10 天内触发 4 次熔断，标普 500 和道 指最大回撤分别为 35%和 38%。 • 今年 4 月美股震荡受特朗普关税政策和内部改革影响，市场担忧美国经济 硬着陆和地缘政治风险，避险资产如黄金、比特币表现突出，出现股债汇 三杀局面。 • 4 月 2 日特朗普宣布关税后，标普 500 最大跌幅 12%，纳斯达克 13%， 美债利率上行，反映市场对政策的负面反应。 • 未来美股受美国基本面和 AI 产业 ...

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the March FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations, indicating a challenging environment for rate cuts amid stagflation concerns [2][3] - The economic forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 GDP growth revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting a stagflation narrative [6][8] - The Fed's decision to slow down balance sheet reduction from $25 billion to $5 billion per month is seen as a proactive measure to mitigate risks amid economic uncertainties [17][20] Interest Rate Outlook - The median interest rate forecast suggests two rate cuts, but the number of committee members supporting this has decreased from 15 to 11, indicating a higher threshold for future cuts [6][8] - The current unemployment rate of 4.1% is expected to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2025, which historically correlates with recessionary conditions [8][10] - The Fed faces pressure from the White House regarding high interest rates, which conflict with fiscal goals such as reducing the deficit and encouraging manufacturing return [22][27] Economic Projections - The economic projections indicate a shift towards a potential shallow recession, with the likelihood of rate cuts increasing as economic conditions evolve [22][27] - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a balance of risks, with inflation expectations rising among committee members, complicating the path for rate cuts [5][6] - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which may impact economic stability and the Fed's decision-making process [3][22]