Short-Term Market Outlook - The market sentiment has shifted positively in the short term due to a reduction in negative positioning related to the Iran conflict [1][2] - Any alleviation of risks surrounding the conflict is expected to be viewed favorably, as seen in recent market movements [2] Intermediate-Term Considerations - The intermediate-term outlook remains uncertain, with ongoing concerns about oil prices and their implications for rates and currency [2][6] - The S&P 500 has declined approximately 5% since the onset of the conflict, indicating a need for further analysis before determining a market bottom [3][4] Volatility and Market Behavior - There has not been a significant spike in volatility or trading volume that typically indicates a market flush, suggesting a more gradual adjustment to news [3] - The current decline is within the typical corrective range of 5-10%, but caution is advised as market conditions can change rapidly [4][5] Oil Prices and Economic Impact - Monitoring of oil futures is critical, as sustained high oil prices could complicate the broader economic outlook, which was initially based on a soft landing scenario [5][6] - The persistence of high oil prices may challenge the assumptions underlying investment strategies focused on sectors outside of mega-cap tech [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, iron ore is affected by multiple factors including supply and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If the macro - disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term [2] - Overall, the iron ore fundamentals are weak with a loose supply, a decline in molten iron production on the demand side, a delayed resumption of production, and an accumulation of port inventory. In the short - term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures Price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated during the day, closing at 807.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the position was 447,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.939 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 790, and the short - term resistance is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to face pressure near the upper resistance and enter a consolidation phase [1] - Spot Price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 1 to 793 yuan/ton, and Super Special Powder dropped 1 to 669 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 107.05 (- 0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot price declined slightly [1] - Basis and Spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures surface was 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 18.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly contracted. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 31.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 19.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing an increase. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - Demand: There was a mismatch in the rhythm of blast furnace inspections and resumptions. The molten iron production decreased significantly month - on - month this period, while the steel mill profitability rate increased. After the Two Sessions, the molten iron production is likely to recover month - on - month, and the daily output of sintered ore increased. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro - economy entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were released, showing relatively good performance. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of external demand has been initially confirmed, while the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility of a continued high - oil - price environment, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the US in the first quarter have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the easing of liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in oil prices, which has significant implications for the global economy, particularly in terms of inflation and potential recession risks. The rise in oil prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions and structural economic issues, leading to concerns about stagflation and its impact on various sectors [2][8][10]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Brent crude oil futures surpassed $100 per barrel, triggering renewed market panic [2] - High oil prices are expected to increase global inflation rates by approximately 0.7 percentage points for every $100 increase in oil prices [12] - The rise in oil prices is causing a ripple effect, increasing costs across various sectors including aviation, logistics, and agriculture [13][14] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The surge in oil prices could push the U.S. core PCE inflation above 3.1%, disrupting inflation control efforts [15] - If oil prices remain high for an extended period, it could significantly drag down economic growth, potentially leading to recession [17][18] - The increase in energy import costs is expected to worsen trade conditions for manufacturing powerhouses in Europe and Asia, squeezing corporate profits [19] Group 3: Market Reactions - The capital markets are experiencing a split, with some sectors like energy stocks seeing gains while tech stocks face valuation pressures due to rising interest rate expectations [29][32] - The article notes that while Asian markets are mostly down, the declines are not as severe as previous market shocks, indicating some market adaptation to oil price volatility [25][36] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors that can hedge against rising oil prices, such as energy and certain commodities [39] Group 4: Future Scenarios - Two potential scenarios are outlined: a prolonged conflict leading to sustained high oil prices and economic stagnation, or a quick resolution resulting in a sharp decline in oil prices and a market rebound [42][46] - In the event of a prolonged conflict, the article predicts significant market downturns, particularly for tech stocks, while physical assets like energy and gold may perform better [44][45] - Conversely, if tensions ease, there could be a rapid market recovery, particularly for previously suppressed sectors [46]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased slightly but remained below economists' expectations, indicating that layoffs are still relatively low and the labor market shows strong resilience despite pessimistic views on AI's impact [1][3] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased by 31,000 to 1.833 million, marking one of the lowest levels in nearly 10 months [1] - The initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by only about 4,000 to 212,000, which is lower than the median expectation of 216,000 from economists [1][3] Group 2 - Despite a slowdown in hiring and low layoffs, the data reflects the stability of the U.S. labor market, reinforcing the narrative of a "soft landing" for the economy [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report on March 6 will provide clearer insights for policymakers regarding the employment market's response to the AI wave and whether the recent positive trends are temporary or indicative of a sustained shift [5] - The four-week moving average for initial jobless claims remained stable at 220,250, suggesting no significant volatility in the labor market [5] Group 3 - Inflation is cooling, with January CPI down to 2.4% and core CPI at 2.5%, yet the Federal Reserve remains cautious about immediate rate cuts [6] - The recent data suggests that the labor market does not require urgent intervention from the Federal Reserve, which has adjusted its rate cut expectations to a more gradual approach [6][7] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with a near 70% probability of a cut in June, indicating a potential for two rate cuts within the year [6]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy experienced a significant slowdown in Q4 2025, with GDP growth falling to 1.4% from 4.4% in Q3 2025, contrary to expectations of 3% growth [1] - For the full year 2025, GDP growth was 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, largely due to declines in government spending [2] Government Spending and Private Demand - Federal spending decreased at a 5.1% annualized rate, with the October-November government shutdown estimated to have reduced Q4 growth by about one percentage point [2] - Despite the decline in government spending, private domestic demand grew by 2.4% in Q4, indicating resilience in consumer and business activities [3] Consumer Behavior and Business Investment - Consumer spending remained strong, particularly in services like health care and travel, rather than in consumer goods [4] - Business investment saw an increase, especially in "information processing equipment," which is related to AI infrastructure [4] Inflation Trends - The PCE report indicated inflation at 2.9% for the quarter, with core PCE at 2.7%, suggesting that inflation remains a concern [5] - Core PCE rose by 0.4% in December, leading to a year-over-year rate of 3.0%, which may affect expectations for future interest rate cuts [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The overall data supports a "soft landing" narrative, indicating that while growth is slowing, it remains positive, and inflation is easing without collapsing [6] - The mixed inflation data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a patient approach rather than implementing aggressive rate cuts in the near term [6]

Market Overview - Spot gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with gold dropping over 0.8% and silver falling by 3.5% during early trading on Monday [1] - The U.S. stock market indices recorded declines last week, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Dow Jones down 1.2%, and the Nasdaq down 2.1% due to concerns over the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence (AI) [3] AI Disruption Concerns - Concerns regarding the disruptive potential of AI have spread from the software sector to other industries, including real estate, trucking, logistics, and financial services [3] - Barclays reported that while the U.S. market has shown some resilience, fears about AI's disruptive effects are increasing, leading to heightened market volatility and disparities among sectors [3] Sector Rotation and Investment Trends - Funds are flowing out of large tech companies and into more defensive traditional sectors, with energy, materials, and consumer staples seeing net inflows [3] - The technology sector is expected to experience internal differentiation, with defensive assets becoming more attractive, and companies that can effectively leverage AI for revenue generation are likely to be favored by the market [4] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key U.S. macroeconomic data to be released this week includes the preliminary Q4 GDP, monthly consumer confidence survey, and the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [6] - The market is awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which may provide insights into future interest rate cuts [6] Earnings Reports - Major companies, including mining giants BHP, Glencore, Rio Tinto, and retail giant Walmart, are set to release their earnings reports, with Walmart's report on Thursday being particularly significant for insights into consumer spending trends [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy shows multiple positive indicators, with inflation cooling, resilient employment, and steady growth, suggesting a "soft landing" is increasingly likely, though not yet confirmed [1] Inflation Trends - The latest inflation report indicates that core prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in January, marking the lowest level since the inflation rise in 2021 [1] - Core inflation remains close to 3%, up from a low of 2.6% in April of the previous year, with analysts predicting that tariff increases may slow down the decline in inflation this year [2] Employment Market - The employment market appears stable, but underlying momentum is weakening, with revised data showing an average monthly job addition of only about 15,000 for 2025, which is lower than almost all years since World War II, with new jobs concentrated in healthcare and education [3] - The stability in the unemployment rate is attributed to a lack of significant hiring or layoffs, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market [3] Consumer Spending and Asset Prices - Consumer spending remains robust, supported by increased household wealth from rising stock markets, but a sustained market sell-off could lead to reduced consumer spending, impacting growth [4] - Some analysts suggest that excessive consumer strength could hinder inflation from reaching the 2% target [4] Economic Outlook and Policy Uncertainty - The ability of inflation to continue declining depends on supply-side and policy variables, with expectations that tariff-related price increases will limit improvement in inflation this year [6] - The transition in Federal Reserve leadership may amplify policy uncertainty, as the White House may push for rate cuts if the economy remains strong, while the Fed maintains its commitment to inflation targets [6]

Group 1 - The investment strategy remains constructive on equities despite concerns over AI overinvestment and weaker job growth, supported by macro data and earnings breadth [2][4] - A significant market rotation has been observed since October, marking the first broadening in four years, driven by improved macroeconomic indicators [2][4] - The recent soft jobs data has contributed to favorable conditions for the market, as it has led to rate cuts by the Fed and lower mortgage rates, which are seen as beneficial for a soft landing [5][6] Group 2 - Expectations for continued soft jobs data are anticipated, which may not lead to a sharp deterioration in employment, aligning with the bullish narrative of the past couple of years [6][7] - Early cyclical macro data has shown improvement, with notable PMI data in January indicating the best performance in four years, suggesting potential job market recovery later this year [7][8]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals by CITIC Futures Research, dated February 6, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector significantly declined during the session due to the strengthening of the US dollar and hawkish remarks from a Fed governor. As of the close on February 5, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 540.3 yuan/gram, a decline of 7.96%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 442.7 yuan/gram, a decline of 1.97% [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Fed governor Lisa Cook's remarks were a short - term adjustment trigger but did not fundamentally affect the Fed's policy path. The market is in a volatile and wide - ranging consolidation phase. Geopolitical risks, US tariff and sanction expectations provide price support. In the future, South Africa faces power supply and extreme weather risks on the supply side. On the demand side, the platinum market is in a structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity in the long - term [3] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the medium - to - long term due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations [3] Palladium - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side as the US investigation result on Russian unforged palladium imports is pending and Europe may impose new sanctions. The tight spot market supports prices. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, short - term spot shortages and Fed rate - cut expectations provide support [4] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the medium - to - long term due to spot shortages and an improving macro environment [4] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2401.01, a decline of 0.84%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.41, a decline of 0.99%; the industrial products index was 2300.28, a decline of 0.97% on February 5, 2026 [51] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 5, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2696.94, with a daily decline of 1.55%, a 5 - day decline of 5.55%, a 1 - month decline of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.41% [53]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the upcoming January FOMC meeting will maintain interest rates unchanged, focusing on the tone of the statement [1][2] Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, indicating a tactical adjustment rather than a return to a tightening cycle [2] - The statement is likely to upgrade the economic growth assessment from "moderate" to "robust" and remove references to "increased risks to employment," suggesting reduced concerns about the labor market [2][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts a dissenting vote from a board member advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Market Strategy and Liquidity - Despite the Fed's pause on rate cuts, the short-term financing market remains loose, with repo rates normalizing below the interest on reserve balances (IORB), indicating an "excessively ample" cash situation [5] - The Fed is expected to maintain reserve levels by purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly, with projections for the SOMA account holdings to exceed $600 billion by the end of 2026 [6] Group 3: Currency Outlook - Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook on the foreign exchange market, now projecting a stronger U.S. economy with a GDP growth forecast of 2.4% for 2026, delaying the anticipated rate cuts [8] - Despite this, the firm maintains a moderately bearish view on the dollar due to synchronized global growth and undervaluation of the Japanese yen, which is expected to converge [9] Group 4: Asset Class Focus - In the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) sector, the significant $200 billion purchase plan by government-sponsored enterprises has led to a narrowing of MBS spreads, prompting a neutral stance from Morgan Stanley [11] - The municipal bond market shows solid fundamentals but is considered expensive, with low yield ratios compared to corporate bonds, raising concerns about sustainability if the Fed signals ambiguity rather than a clear dovish stance [11]