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供需逆转,铜价中枢有望上移 | 投研报告
以下为研究报告摘要: l投资要点 贵金属:金银主升浪延续,坚定持有。贵金属本周继续强势,comex黄金上涨1.89%,comex白银上涨 6.92%。本周美国GDP数据显示其经济依然强势,数据落地后,美国国债利率提升,金银出现短暂调整 后重拾上涨动能,同时软着陆交易下白银跑赢,黄金未来可能迎来波动率下降的慢牛行情。且长期来 看,去美元化的进程不会转向,叠加短期降息交易下ETF配置资金的流入,我们依然看好贵金属板块的 表现,建议继续超配贵金属。 铜:供给扰动有望提升价格中枢。本周印尼自由港发布Grasberg运营状况更新公告。公司将25Q4铜产量 指引下调至"可忽略的水平",原预估四季度铜产量20.2万吨;还下调26年全年铜产量指引35%,即27万 吨。考虑到自由港库存情况,全球电解铜平衡表的逆转可能在25Q4末期或26Q1出现。同上文,目前市 场在定价美国滞胀或软着陆,铜依然会有不俗的表现,结合供需紧张的预期,铜价有望继续上行突破, 或长期保持在10500美金以上。铜价目前的位置来看,机会或大于风险。就供需来看,国内消费旺季来 临,下游开工率提升有望提振消费情绪,从而带动铜价上行。 铝:继续看好铝价上行。本周 ...
4Q25商品风险:结构性分化与波动加剧
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].
比特币周一闪崩,引发市场震动,高盛交易员称为领先信号
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 17:36
2025年9月22日,亚洲时区,比特币市场如同被突如其来的急刹车甩入前座,屏幕上血红的K线与交易 群里"冲冲冲"的呐喊形成鲜明对比,两种极端情绪的碰撞,预示着一场不同寻常的动荡。加密货币的领 头羊,比特币,在11.4万美元附近瞬间崩盘,短短几分钟内,市值蒸发大半。期货市场上,17亿美元的 多头头寸顷刻间化为乌有,强平提示如狂风暴雨般涌来。 "这是不是一个拐点?"群里有人抛出疑问,我却不动声色地回复:"别急,先看谁先认输,再看谁补 仓。市场节奏已非上周的直线冲刺。" 三天后的9月26日,高盛的分析师Paolo Schiavone在一份内部报告中,一针见血地指出了市场的变化。 他认为,过去三周,风险偏好如同踩了氮气加速,动量策略表现强劲,但本周的节拍已然改变。他将周 一那记"急刹车"定性为第一个真正的信号,并强调,比特币此次已不再是跟随者,而是领头羊。他的原 话更是尖锐:"跌破200日均线,风险便会陡增。" 事后复盘,盘后数据显示,10.9万美元附近出现了承接的现货买盘,挂单如同精心守护的防线。技术派 将其视为支撑,而情绪派则称之为"护城河"。当天晚些时候,以太坊及主流山寨币也未能幸免,纷纷出 现下滑。社交媒体上 ...
历史第四次重演!降息后A股的剧本有何不同?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 15:23
美联储降息25BP,A股真正的牛市还未开始? 图1:历史上四次"预防式降息"后均实现"软着陆" 来源:Wind、国金证券,截至:2025.9.23 别慌,真正的机会往往藏在大多数人忽视的细节里。9月17日美联储的预防式降息靴子落地(因为GDP增 长虽然没有大幅下行或者转负,但"就业的下行风险已经上升"。),这已经是过去30年里的第五次类似 操作,而前四次降息后美国经济都实现了软着陆即GDP增速扭转下行趋势,且失业率略有下行(即GDP 增速扭转下行趋势,且失业率略有下行。)。现在,新的行情密码正在生成。 ...
投资庚我学 |美联储年内首次降息,对资本市场有何影响?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 01:11
来源:市场投研资讯 美联储降息是指美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下调联邦基金利率的行为。该利率是美国银行间互 相借贷的隔夜利率,其变动会传导至各类贷款利率和资产收益率,进而影响实体经济与金融市场。美联 储降息通常出于两类动机:一是"预防式降息",即在经济尚未出现明显衰退但增长放缓、就业市场疲软 或通胀压力缓解时,提前采取宽松政策以防范风险;二是"危机式降息",即在金融系统出现如金融危 机、疫情冲击等严重问题时,为缓解流动性紧张和经济衰退压力而快速大幅降息。 根据招商证券的研报分析,本次降息属于"预防式降息"。当前美国经济呈现明显的分化:一方面,与人 工智能、云计算等相关的科技领域投资保持强劲,企业资本开支计划积极;另一方面,传统制造业活动 持续处于收缩区间,衡量制造业景气程度的采购经理人指数PMI多月位于荣枯线下方,房地产市场在经 历前期利率高企后依然表现疲软。同时,最新的就业数据显示新增岗位数量放缓,失业率有所抬升。尽 管通胀水平相较于历史低点有所回升,当前支持降息的理由主要基于劳动力市场前景的恶化风险已经超 过了通胀可能持续超标的担忧。此次降息被视为一种微调,目的是在经济增长放缓迹象初现时提供支 持, ...
中国期货每日简报-20250923
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 07:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed movements with energy & chemicals declining [12][15]. - Silver and gold prices are expected to rise, with silver potentially challenging the 2011 all - time high in Q1 - Q2 and gold maintaining an upward trend in Q4 [21][26]. - Poly - silicon remains in a policy - waiting plateau, with prices expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be a supply surplus in Q4 [35][39]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities had mixed performance, with energy & chemicals weakening. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver, gold, and SCFIS(Europe), and the top three decliners were poly - silicon, LPG, and ferrosilicon. Among financial futures, IM and IF of equity indices increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and TL and T of CGB futures rose by 0.2% [12][13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On September 22, it increased by 3.8% to 10317 yuan/kg. Soft - landing expectations amplify short - term volatility. With the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and stable US fundamentals, silver prices are expected to rise and may challenge the 2011 high in Q1 - Q2. Attention should be paid to US economic data this week [20][21][22]. - **Gold**: On September 22, it increased by 2.0% to 846.5 yuan/gram. Prices may continue to fluctuate and gather momentum in the short term, and maintain an upward trend in Q4. Interest - rate cut expectations are the core bullish driver. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and the risk of its loss of independence may drive gold prices up. However, gold may face pressure if the trading shifts to "recovery", or gain new upside potential under certain negative scenarios [25][26][28]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Poly - silicon**: On September 22, it decreased by 3.6% to 50990 yuan/ton. It is in a policy - waiting plateau, and prices depend on policy signals. The new energy - consumption standard may accelerate the clearance of outdated capacities. Supply may decline slightly in Q4, and demand for the photovoltaic terminal is expected to be weak. There was a slight surplus in Q3, and it may expand in Q4 [35][37][39]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, providing strategic guidance for China - US relations. China and the US are in communication regarding a leaders' meeting at APEC [43]. 2.2 Industry News - Pan Gongsheng said further communication on the 15th Five - Year Plan and future financial reform will be conducted after the central government's unified deployment. - CSRC's Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A - share market value of 3.4 trillion yuan, and 269 enterprises are listed overseas. - As of the end of August, medium - and long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of tradable A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [44][45].
降息周期金属走走势规律探讨
2025-09-23 02:34
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the precious metals and base metals industries, focusing on gold, aluminum, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements [1][2][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals (Gold) - Central bank gold purchases have become a major factor influencing gold prices, offsetting the net outflow from institutional investors during the interest rate hike cycle, leading to an increase in gold prices [1][2]. - Gold prices typically reach a peak around the second interest rate cut, with a sustained upward trend from the market's expectation of rate cuts to the confirmation of their frequency and magnitude [2][3]. - After the first rate cut, there may be a price adjustment, but there is potential for another price surge [2][3]. - In a soft landing scenario, gold prices are expected to fluctuate after peaking around the second rate cut, while in the event of systemic economic risks, gold may experience a significant pullback but will recover the fastest [3]. Base Metals (Aluminum and Copper) - China's aluminum production capacity is nearing its peak, leading to strong supply constraints, with limited supply growth expected [1][8]. - Recent disturbances in major copper mines have altered the supply landscape, resulting in limited price adjustments despite declining demand, reminiscent of the situation in 1984 [8][9]. - The anticipated price peaks for copper and aluminum are around $10,000/ton and $21,000/ton, respectively, with expected pullbacks being limited to within 5% due to supply constraints [9][10]. Cobalt and Rare Earth Elements - The potential extension of the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban could lead to a tightening of global cobalt inventories, significantly increasing cobalt prices [4][11]. - The rare earth market remains stable, with increasing demand driven by high-tech industries and green energy transitions, suggesting a positive investment outlook for companies in this sector [4][12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall economic environment is expected to influence metal prices, with a focus on liquidity and inflation trends. If no technological revolution occurs, gold prices may fluctuate upwards due to increased liquidity and inflation [5]. - Investors are encouraged to seek individual stocks with strong growth potential, particularly those with clear mineral increment plans leading up to 2030 [5]. - The steel industry faces challenges due to declining domestic demand and increased export pressures, but there are opportunities for top companies to improve pricing and profit margins through supply-side optimization [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals industry.
鲍威尔引发降息风暴!美联储9月行动撬动全球,房市低位反弹迎转机
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 23:28
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00-4.25%, indicating a strategic shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy after nine months of stability [2] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising to 2.9% year-on-year in August, and the labor market showing signs of fatigue [5] - The shift in monetary policy is seen as a necessary response to high inflation pressures and a cooling labor market, moving away from the previously anticipated "soft landing" scenario [5] Group 2 - The easing of U.S. monetary policy is expected to influence capital flows, coinciding with key adjustments in China's domestic policies, particularly in the real estate sector [8] - China's real estate market has been undergoing a significant correction since 2021, with policies aimed at reducing leverage and financial risks, but recent external liquidity easing may ignite market activity [8][9] - Mortgage rates in China have dropped to around 3%, with some cities nearing 2.8%, providing tangible cash flow improvements for homebuyers [9] Group 3 - The perception of housing prices is influenced by market expectations, where a consensus that prices will not fall further can lead to increased transaction volumes [13] - The decline in financing costs for real estate companies due to U.S. rate cuts, combined with domestic debt restructuring efforts, is expected to alleviate financial pressures on these firms [16] - The stability of the RMB and improved financing conditions could restore buyer confidence and project delivery timelines in the real estate market [16] Group 4 - The current environment allows for a potential rebound in the real estate market, driven by improved credit conditions and a shift in investor sentiment towards real estate as a stable asset class [19] - The Chinese central bank's policy adjustments are aimed at maintaining exchange rate stability while facilitating capital flows, creating a conducive environment for market recovery [20] - The effectiveness of policy transmission from interest rates to real estate transactions will be crucial for achieving a sustainable recovery in the sector [31]
3Fourteen Research's Warren Pies: Lower rates means you don't want to be underweight equities
Youtube· 2025-09-19 21:21
Core Viewpoint - The equity market is showing positive signs with all three major averages on track for record closes, and there is optimism about achieving a target of 6800 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, which is approximately 2% above current levels [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent signals indicate a lower real Fed funds rate, which is the nominal rate minus projected interest rates for the coming years, suggesting a favorable environment for equities [5][6]. - Historical patterns show that when the market has high expectations for the Fed, and the Fed adjusts its stance slightly, it often leads to positive equity performance in the following quarters [4][5]. Group 2: Market Risks - Concerns exist regarding a potential "growth scare," which is characterized by anxiety around a recession that does not materialize, potentially leading to increased volatility and a 7-8% pullback in equities [8][9][16]. - The likelihood of a growth scare occurring in the next few months is estimated at about one-third, which could result in a rally in the bond market as equities face challenges [9][10]. Group 3: Portfolio Strategy - In light of the current market conditions, it is suggested that investors maintain long positions in equities while also holding an overweight position in bonds to mitigate risks [10][16]. - The historical context of growth scares indicates that while equities may experience volatility, they tend to perform well over the long term, necessitating a balanced approach to portfolio construction [12][16].
美联储重启降息对全球股市影响几何?
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-19 07:57
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2][3] - The nature of the rate cut is categorized as a preventive cut, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic risks rather than responding to a severe economic downturn [3][8] - Historical analysis shows that preventive rate cuts generally have a positive impact on the U.S. stock market, reducing corporate financing costs and potentially stimulating mergers and acquisitions [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with a GDP growth rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024, indicating a gradual slowdown but not a clear recession [8][9] - The inflation rate remains relatively high, with core PCE and CPI growth rates at 2.86% and 3.2% respectively, complicating the effectiveness of the current rate cut [8][10] - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite multiple rate cuts [9][10] Group 3 - There has been a significant outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion exiting in the first half of the year, primarily moving to safer assets like bonds and money markets [13][15] - Non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe, have seen increased foreign investment, with China experiencing a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign holdings of stocks and funds in the first half of 2025 [14][15] - The trend of capital outflow from U.S. equities is viewed as a rebalancing of asset allocation rather than a mass exodus, reflecting investor caution regarding the U.S. economy and high valuations [15][16] Group 4 - The potential impact of the Fed's second phase of rate cuts on global markets will depend on whether the Fed adopts a moderate preventive approach or a more aggressive easing strategy [17][18] - If the Fed continues with a moderate approach, U.S. stock market funds are likely to remain within the domestic financial system, while some capital may seek opportunities in global markets [17][18] - An aggressive easing strategy could lead to a temporary boost in global markets due to increased liquidity, but risks of a sharp capital outflow could arise if inflation pressures force the Fed to tighten policy [18][19]