Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil prices have been falling and reached this year's low. High-sulfur fuel oil market transactions have slightly improved, and the premium has increased. Middle East shipments remain high, but Russia's high-sulfur exports are unlikely to recover due to domestic fuel shortages and reduced refining capacity caused by drone attacks, which will support the Asia-Pacific spot market. Low-sulfur fuel oil in the Asia-Pacific region has no obvious supply gap, and spot shipments are normal. Singapore's bunker sales data in August were good, providing some support on the demand side. For the domestic market, the quota issue has been fully priced in, but inventory has continued to accumulate in Zhoushan, and there are still warehouse receipts on the futures market. The price difference between LU and Singapore spot means that imports can be an effective supplement in case of domestic shortages, so LU's valuation will be suppressed in the near future, and LU may continue to be weaker than FU in the short term [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2650 - 3000; LU: 3150 - 3450 [4] - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU and LU follow the decline of crude oil and enter a short-term weak cycle. 2) Inter-period: The spreads of FU and LU have slightly weakened. 3) Inter-variety: FU crack spreads are oscillating at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still slightly shrink in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operation**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation units), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering multiple years from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil by Chinese refineries, and the domestic commercial volume of fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 are shown [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 are provided [26][28][29]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented [34][35][37][39][40][42]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high-sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor, and low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 are provided [44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts, are presented [47][48][51][53]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the price difference between high and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are provided [57][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Data on the crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the monthly spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided [66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [71][73]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [75]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [77]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal-External Spreads - **Review and Logic**: The Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices dropped significantly this week, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. The internal FU and LU were relatively stronger than the external market, and the premium continued to rise. The domestic and overseas spot prices continued to fall under the influence of crude oil prices, but the domestic decline was relatively smaller, causing the internal-external spreads to widen. For FU, as the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market decreased, FU performed relatively stronger than the external spot price, and the spread is expected to remain at the current level until the number of warehouse receipts significantly recovers. Similarly, the newly issued quota is small, which significantly supports LU's valuation, and the spread between LU and the external spot will also remain at the current level until the import volume significantly increases [80]. - **Internal-External Spread Data**: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous first contract, LU continuous contract, LU continuous first contract, and LU continuous second contract against Singapore from October 6 - 10, 2025 are provided [81]. - **Spot Market Internal-External Spread**: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU continuous first contract, LU continuous contract, LU continuous first contract, and FU main contract against Singapore from 2021 - 2025 are presented [84][85][91][93]. - **FU and LU Positions and Trading Volume Changes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contract, fuel oil continuous first contract, low-sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and low-sulfur fuel oil continuous first contract from 2020 - 2025 are provided [95][97][100][103]. - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [106][107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking margin declined slightly, the 380 - cst near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread oscillated at a high level, and the basis strengthened again. The low - sulfur cracking margin oscillated, the near - end monthly spread oscillated, and the basis weakened. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for the cracking margin and the monthly spread to decline after the supply recovers. The high - sulfur cracking margin runs strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has dropped significantly. In the shipping fuel sector, the global high - sulfur shipping fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, and that in Singapore was basically flat, while the total shipping fuel was weaker year - on - year. Recently, the net import of Saudi Arabian residue has rebounded, and Egypt's purchases continue, so the high - sulfur near - end remains strong. Pay attention to the medium - and long - term opportunity for the high - sulfur cracking margin to decline [3][4] Group 3: Key Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 398.15 | 397.26 | -0.89 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 442.03 | 449.90 | 7.87 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -0.39 | -2.56 | -2.17 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 581.80 | 599.32 | 17.52 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -139.77 | -149.42 | -9.65 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.18 | 16.85 | 0.67 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 43.88 | 52.64 | 8.76 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 416.86 | 404.63 | -12.23 | | 180cst M1 | 423.87 | 411.53 | -12.34 | | VLSFO M1 | 481.97 | 475.64 | -6.33 | | Gasoil M1 | 78.88 | 79.52 | 0.64 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | 1.49 | -0.48 | -1.97 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -101.74 | -112.81 | -11.07 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 420.21 | 422.45 | 2.24 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.92 | 486.45 | -2.47 | | 380 Basis | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 10.1 | 4.9 | -5.2 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 11.9 | 16.7 | 4.8 | [2] Domestic FU | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2676 | 2705 | 29 | | FU 05 | 2611 | 2642 | 31 | | FU 09 | 2819 | 2828 | 9 | | FU 01 - 05 | 65 | 63 | -2 | | FU 05 - 09 | -208 | -186 | 22 | | FU 09 - 01 | 143 | 123 | -20 | [2] Domestic LU | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3344 | 3333 | -11 | | LU 05 | 3282 | 3286 | 4 | | LU 09 | 3415 | 3425 | 10 | | LU 01 - 05 | 62 | 47 | -15 | | LU 05 - 09 | -133 | -139 | -6 | | LU 09 - 01 | 71 | 92 | 21 | [3]